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Navigating Uncertainty in Product Development for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

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iola-norman
20 diapositives · 325 Views · Nov 20, 2014

This paper explores an agile approach to directing product development strategy amidst uncertainty, focusing specifically on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The discussion encompasses critical dimensions of uncertainty including market demands, budget constraints, user requirements, and evolving technologies. It outlines a structured analysis approach, emphasizing the importance of global user capability taxonomies and adaptability in military, civil, and commercial applications. Key points highlight the necessity for industry participants to anticipate shifts in operational needs and develop robust solutions in an increasingly complex security environment.

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  1. An Agile Approach to Directing Product Development Strategy against an Uncertain Future Kevin Smith Operational Analysis Manager, Advanced Projects, Military Air Solutions 26 ISMOR

  2. Contents & Scope • Dimensions of Uncertainty for Industry • Outline the Analysis Approach • Summarise Key points Utilise Unmanned Aircraft Systems as the application example throughout - Many uncertain dimensions to analysis process

  3. Key Dimensions of Uncertainty • Market • Military, Civil or Commercial customer? • Budget available? • Requirements (i.e. User Requirements) • Known, evolving … • Similar across users or discrete? • Expressed differently by alternative Customers • Solution • Product or service? • What product?

  4. Market Analysis – Key Criteria 1. 2.

  5. Market Analysis – Result Template • by country • by timescale • by …

  6. End User Capability Taxonomy AUS Military Capability Taxonomies US Military Capability Taxonomies Home Markets UK Military Capability Taxonomies Military Specific Traceable to Customer terminology Civil Taxonomies or Applications Civil Taxonomies or Applications ‘Functionally’ Common Generic role 1 Generic role 1 Generic role 1 Generic role 2 Generic role 2 Generic role 2 Generic role 9 Generic role 9 Generic role 9 Bottom-up exploratory UR 3 UR 3 UR 3 UR 4 UR 4 UR 4 UR 1 UR 1 UR 1 UR 2 UR 2 UR 2 UAS Applications 107 UAS Applications 107 UAS Applications UR 104 UR 104 UR 104 UR 105 UR 105 UR 105 UR 106 UR 106 UR 106 UR 107 UR 107 UR 107 Civil & Commercial Specific Requirements:Establish Global User Capability Taxonomy

  7. Combat Intensity & Scale Military Operations – Historical Projections Geographic Spread

  8. Combat Intensity & Scale Coalition National NATO North Cold War Coalition NATO South Coalition Coalition Coalition Inter State Conflict 1996 Geographic Spread Nuclear Non Nuclear

  9. UN Combat Intensity & Scale National UN Coalition National Coalition Coalition NATO Coalition National Inter State Conflict Civil Conflict Later… Coalition National Geographic Spread Coalition NATO South Coalition Coalition

  10. UN Coalition UN Combat Intensity & Scale National UN Coalition National Coalition Coalition Coalition NATO UK / FR EU Coalition National Inter State Conflict Civil Conflict Even Later… Coalition National Geographic Spread Coalition NATO South Coalition Coalition

  11. UN EU Coalition UN Combat Intensity & Scale National EU Coalition UN Coalition National Coalition Coalition National Coalition Coalition NATO UK / FR UN EU WMD Proliferation Coalition National International Terrorism Today / Future Coalition Geographic Spread Coalition Coalition Coalition

  12. Requirements:The Uncertain Future Security Environment • In future there may be: • A lower probability of high threat scenarios involving conventional warfighting • A potential increase in nuclear armed states leading to wider regional instabilities and hence International Conflict • A reduced incidence of interstate warfare between established states that are internationally recognised • An increased potential for intrastate conflict & warfare in less advanced states • An increase in criminal and irregular activity associated with failed or failing states • Consequently there may be: • An increased demand for Intervention & Stabilisation Operations which highlight the increasing importance & value of CIMIC • An increase in Counterinsurgency Operations which may also arise as a consequence of intervention • An increase in Maritime Security Operations to counter smuggling, piracy, irregular activity and in response to contentious sea control activities by developing maritime powers • An increase in covert operations around the world to counter terrorism and to counter proliferation of WMD • An increase in proxy wars and the use of “private” security

  13. ScanEagle Hummingbird Coyote Fulmar Fire Scout Integrator BAES IAV2 K-Max Eagle Eye Groen Hawk 4 EADS Orka HETEL AD-150 X-2 X-49A Concept Ampersand CarterCopter CQ-10B SnowGoose EADS Sharc Solutions: Alternate VTOL UAVs (for Maritime) Camcopter SAAB Skeldar

  14. Assess Solution Trade-offs required within solution development Derive Solution Core Analysis process:Capability To Solution Translation Framework Parameters / emphasis driven by Operational Use - Customer / role specific Operational Capability Measures – ‘URD’ System performance Characteristics (SRD)

  15. Market Definition Global ‘End User’ Capability Taxonomy Overall Analysis Process New Solution or Enhanced Solution Solution Development Solutions Portfolio Accessible Market Needs Solution Assessment Competition Performance Assessment

  16. Fidelity Time Cost Analysis Rigour – Confidence & Resource SME Opinion Should we ? L1 Generic Capability L2 Is it viable ? Qualitative / parameter based Customer Specific Capability Might it sell ? L3 Analysis Tools Effectiveness in Customer Environment Just how good is it ? L4 Visualisation & Promotion in Customer Representative Environment SE Experimentation Operational Evaluation / Warfighting Analysis fidelity must be driven by Confidence requirement / Business risk, matched to resources available …

  17. Example Level 2 Parameter Framework:Range & Responsiveness

  18. UK Maritime UAS – L4 Approach required! Understand Naval Ops Watching brief on other nations* RN/RM Plans, Practice & Doctrine Generic Naval Task Group Roles and Functions Maritime/Littoral Scenario Development (Nigeria) Vignettes Explore Force-Mix Solutions Solutions: - Existing manned systems - Future manned/unmanned systems - BAES UAS Portfolio - Other manned/unmanned (gaps) Concept Suitability Filter Systems v Roles Evaluation System-of-Systems Formulation Force Mixes ~6 Analysis of Force-Mix Solutions Force Mix Quantities & Costs Qualitative Analysis Preferred System-of-Systems Exploit Analysis Derive Maritime UAS Requirements Establish likely fleet/market size Product development New concepts * USA, Australia, Canada, EU/NATO, India

  19. Summary • Objective, scaleable, evidence-based approach enabling/driving an integrated UAS solution portfolio development • Enables the alignment to market needs of – • Concept development & new concept generation • Product investment (inc technology) planning • Integrated UAS portfolio marketing • Critically, it is • A self-consistent analysis across the Global operation • Underpinned by Information / Knowledge management • Rationale, traceable, agile • Rigorous where necessary

  20. Questions ? Kevin.smith@baesystems.com 01772 855168