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Why indicators in ETC/ACC

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  1. Proposed list of CC state and impact indicatorsJelle van Minnen (RIVM)in cooperation with:Markus Erhard (PIK) & Thomas Voigt (UBA)ETC/ACC-WorkshopCopenhagen 22/23 Nov. 2001 EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  2. Why indicators in ETC/ACC • Identification of CC state and impact indicators is needed for reporting (e.g. under EU 6th EAP, Signals 2002 report) • Feasibility study is needed on CC indicators • To support the process of Integrated Environment Assessment EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  3. Criteria for Indicators EEA Accessible/attractive to the eye Correct to interpret Representative (issue, area) Regularly updated Reference value International comparable Scientifically sound Consensus on data validity/ methods Appropriate data sets (e.g. length) Sensitive to CC (Related to policy process) (Applicable in assessments) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  4. Indicator evaluation A) Core set indicator, available in the short term B) Core set indicator, suitable on medium term C) Core set indicator, suitable on long term D) Potentially suitable core set (additional analysis needed) E) Unclear/soft indicator (affected by many other factors/ data not sufficient) F) Not suitable as indicator EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  5. Indicator categories 1) Climate and Atmosphere 2) Cryosphere 3) Soils and Resources 4) Agriculture and Forestry 5) Ecosystems and Biodiversity 6) Hydrology and Water resources 7) Marine Environment and Coastal Zones 8) Economy and Infrastructure 9) Human Health EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  6. Proposed indicators Climate & atmosphere Core set indicators (categories A,B,C) Temperature change Rate of temperature change Precipitation Snow cover Climate indices Other indicators (categories D,E) Lightning frequency, shrinking of stratosphere, changes in cloudiness EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  7. Example: Temperature in Europe European annual mean temperature deviations 1850-2000 1.50 Yearly deviation from 1961-90 normal mean 10 Year Trend, Gaussian filtered 1.00 0.50 C) o Difference from average 1960 - 1990 0.00 annual temperature ( -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  8. Proposed indicators (II) Cryosphere Core set indicators extend & mass glaciers Arctic sea ice Permafrost (temperature profiles) Other indicators Ice break-up arctic coastal zones EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  9. Example: Change in arctic sea ice extent Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  10. Proposed indicators (III) Soils and land resources Core set indicators Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soils Other indicators Soil degradation, soil moisture EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  11. Proposed indicators (IV) Agriculture and forestry Core set indicators Yield trends of important crop types Trends in forest growth Shift of tree lines Other indicators Pests and diseases, disturbance regimes, forest composition EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  12. Proposed indicators (V) Ecosystems and biodiversity Core set indicators Phenology/growing season length Arrival date of birds Egg-laying dates Ecosystem composition Other indicators Disturbances, seasonal changes (e.g. insects) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  13. Example: Change in LGP 1982-1991 Myneni et al 1999 EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  14. Proposed indicators (VI) Hydrology and water resources Core set indicators Irrigation water demand River temperature Water scarcity index Other indicators River discharge, flooding frequency, groundwater level, temperature profiles of inland lakes EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  15. Proposed indicators (VII) Marine environment and coastal zones Core set indicators Sea (surface) temperature Storm surges Sea level rise Thermohaline circulation Other indicators Shoreline retreat, fishery & aquaculture productivity EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  16. Proposed indicators (VIII) Economy and infrastructure Core set indicators Insurance Electricity, gas & water consumption Other indicators Tourism EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  17. Proposed indicators (IX) Human health Core set indicators Other indicators in broad set Tropospheric ozone impacts, mortality due to heat waves & freezing periods, allergies, vector and water-borne diseases EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  18. Summary & conclusions • ETC-ACC indicator data set developed for reporting purposes & IEA • Indicator data set fulfils EEA & other criteria • Core data set for all 9 categories: • 3 indicators category A, • 10 category B, • 8 category C, • 23 category D EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  19. Thank you for your attention!!! Time for discussion dinner EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE