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IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

James C. Gibeaut Tiffany Hepner, Bill White, Becky Smyth, Tom Tremblay John Andrews, Roberto Gutierrez, Rachel Waldinger Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin

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IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

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  1. James C. Gibeaut Tiffany Hepner, Bill White, Becky Smyth, Tom Tremblay John Andrews, Roberto Gutierrez, Rachel Waldinger Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Funding from Galveston Bay Estuary Program, Texas General Land Office,NASA, NOAA, Army Research Office, City of Galveston Coastal Bend Bays Foundation, February 12, 2007 IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE, EROSION, STORMS, AND DEVELOPMENT ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

  2. Texas Coast

  3. Data generalized from various sources. Diagram modified from Fisher, W. L., Brown, L. F., Jr., McGowen, J. H., and Groat, C. G., 1979.

  4. today ~4m 5,300 yr BP Barrier Island Formation

  5. Transgressive (Matagorda Peninsula)

  6. today ~4m 5,300 yr BP Barrier Island Formation

  7. Regressive (Galveston Island)

  8. Future Galveston, Mustang, … Islands

  9. Pier 21 - Galveston 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 Average water level (cm) y = 0.652x - 1145.6 Global ocean-level rise 80.0 2 R = 0.9436 60.0 4.36 + 2.16 = 6.52 mm/yr 40.0 20.0 Local land subsidence 0.0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Relative Sea-Level Change

  10. Barrier Island Cross Section Protective Ridge Bay Gulf Wetland Upland Island Core Upland Wetland Upland Beach/ Dune Future Wetland After 60 Years of Sea-Level Rise and Erosion Protective Ridge Wetland Island Core Beach/ Dune Upland Wetland Upland Today Future Beach/Dune

  11. Shoreline Change and Projection ProgramArcView Interface

  12. Gulf Of Mexico Shoreline Change Statistics • 11,708 measurement locations spaced 50 m alongshore = 585.4 km of shoreline length • 2 to 10 shorelines at each transect but 80% of transects had 5 or more shorelines • Stable = 173.6 km, 29.6% • Advancing = 46.3 km, 7.9%, mean = 5.4 m/yr • Retreating = 365.6 km, 62.4%, mean = -2.6 m/yr

  13. -2 m/yr SHORELINE CHANGE RATE FREQUENCY Retreat Advance

  14. Sabine Pass Galveston Bay Bolivar Roads Matagorda Bay Colorado River Pass Cavallo Corpus Christi Bay Aransas Pass Baffin Bay Brazos Santiago Pass High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = red

  15. Sabine Pass Galveston Bay Bolivar Roads Matagorda Bay Colorado River Pass Cavallo Corpus Christi Bay Aransas Pass Baffin Bay Brazos Santiago Pass High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = redModerate retreat rates (0.61 to 2 m/yr) = orange

  16. Sabine Pass Galveston Bay Bolivar Roads Matagorda Bay Colorado River Pass Cavallo Corpus Christi Bay Aransas Pass Baffin Bay Brazos Santiago Pass High (>2m/yr) retreat rates = redModerate retreat rates (0.61 to 2 m/yr) = orangeStable rates (<0.61 m/yr) = blue

  17. 2060 Projected Shoreline

  18. Galveston Island State Park, Pre-Frances, August 8, 1998 (profile BEG-02)

  19. Galveston Island State Park, Post-Frances, September 16, 1998 (profile BEG-02)

  20. Galveston Island State Park, April 27, 2006 (profile BEG-02)

  21. 2002

  22. 1961 Post Hurricane Carla

  23. 1961 – post Carla Jamaica Beach Galveston Isl.

  24. 2002 Jamaica Beach Galveston Isl.

  25. Beach/Dune Profile Translation

  26. UT’s Airborne Topographic Lidar

  27. Foredune Mapping

  28. Cumulative Wind Distribution

  29. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) Wind Direction & Relative Speed Measured at offshore buoy #42035 ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/22 21:00

  30. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/23 03:00

  31. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/23 15:00

  32. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/23 21:00

  33. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/24 03:00

  34. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/24 09:00

  35. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/24 15:00

  36. Modeled Water Level Water Level (m) ADCIRC hydrodynamic model University of North Carolina 9/24 21:00

  37. LA Calcasieu Pass TX Rita Landfall Sabine Pass Rollover Pass

  38. Galveston Island State Park

  39. Galveston Island State Park Area H. Rita Erosion/ Deposition

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