Decomposition Analysis Applicationof Forward Looking
Outline • Methodology • Examplesof ex-post usage • Currentuse ex-ante • Possible ex-anteusefor Forward Looking • Ljubljana 2012: Whichkindofuseandwhichapplication?
Methodology Principles of decomposition analysis (D.A.) • Design of policy instruments and assessment or monitoring of measures require knowledge of factors and drivers influencing loads or emissions • The composition analysis delivers a methodical approach to quantify the effects of these driving forces • Therefore the loads or emissions are decomposed into a product of factors • In order to determine the corresponding contribution of these drivers the changes of loads or emissions are carried out
D.A. Methodology Procedure of composition analysis • First step of composition analysis is to identify the primary drivers (e.g. GDP, population, energy consumption) • Each individual change of load or emission represents the contribution of a driver while leaving all other independent variable unchanged • The effect of a certain driver within the chosen period (e.g. 1990-2010) is quantified by calculating the single effect of a change of this driver on total load or emissions, while leaving all other drivers constant • When all drivers follow the change over time, the result has to be equivalent to the overall change in the load or emission, and represents the sum of the effects of all drivers Such analysis can be done with any selection of drivers and for any specific sector. The relevance of its result will depend on the appropriateness of the selected drivers for the sector chosen.
Factorscontributingtochanges ∆ GHG = pop * ∆ (GDP/pop) * ∆ (ENEcons/GDP) * * ∆ (ENEfossiluse/ENEcons) * ∆ (GHG/ENEfossiluse) GHG…greenhouse gas emissions GDP/pop………..describeseconomicdevelopment pop…..populationENEcons/GDP…describesenergyintensity GDP…grossdomesticproductENEfossiluse/ENEcons…describesshareof fossil fuels in total energyconsumed ENEcons…energyconsumption GHG/ENEfossiluse…describesemissionintensityof fossil fuels ENEfossiluse…fossil energyuse
Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe A retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990-2008, EEA Oct. 2011 <- Drivers of EU GHG emissions from energy supply, 1990–2008
Ex-post D.A. forthe total GHG emissionsof Austria:Main driversfortrendsfrom 1990-2009,Klimaschutzbericht, 2011
Model based Ex-anteD.A. forhouseholds in Austria:Main driversfor GHG emissiontrendsfrom 1990-2050
(A) Combinationof D.A. andextrapolationoffactors • Ex-post D.A.foreachyearbetweenthestartingyearandtherecentyearwithdata • Building an expectedtrendofeachfactorby (existing) datafromreliableandproofed, externalmodelsor simple by expert guess in a workshopwithstakeholders • Estimatingrangeofmeanvariation(a simple confidenceintervall) foreachfactorbyscenariosofexternal model orby expert guess • Calculatingtheexpectedloadoremissionby ex-antecompositionoffactors • Calculatingthedistributionoftheloadoremission („uncertainty“) => ForwardingComposition Analysis F.C.A.
(B) F.C.A. in strategicpolicyassessment • Ex-post D.A. form baseyearto last datayear • Calculationofthegapbetweenstateofloadoremissionandtheaim in the traget year • Suggestionofpolicy & measures (betteronlyone PAM, max. 3 PAMs) toreachthistarget in a workshopwithstakeholders • Identifyingfactorswhich will beinfluencenedbyproposedmeasures & instruments • EstimationofthestrengthofneededinstrumentsandtheeffectedfactorsbyeachPaMreferingtoautonomouschange (baselinescenario) andother PAMs (advancedpolicyscenario) by expert guess (CONSIDEO?) • Calculatingtheexpectedloadoremissionbyex-antecomposition (Forward Comosition Analysis = F.C.A) ofchangedfactorsforthetargetyear • Feedback tostakeholdersabouttheneededstrengthtoreachthetargetor an assessmentofdesigned PAMs relatedtothetarget
Possibleworkshop design elements Key issuesofpolicy Key indicators Drivingforces Trends on policy & measures Uncertainties Errorpropagation Ex-post D.A. Forward lookingby ex-ante D.A. = F.C.A.
Contact & Information Alexander Storch email@example.com ++43 (0)1 313 04/5965 Environmental Agency Austriawww.umweltbundesamt.at • FLIS, article 5 contract – projectmeetingVienna■ November 24th 2011