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Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the failure probabilities of U.S. solid rocket systems from 1964 to 2004. It outlines the historical failure rates, the percentage of catastrophic failures, and specific data on various solid propulsion systems. For example, between 1980-2004, the overall failure rate was 1.4%, with catastrophic failures occurring 37% of the time historically. The study also discusses future work to enhance propulsion designs and systems, referencing important works and studies in the field.

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Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

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  1. Stephen BluestoneFebruary 28, 2008Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability AAE 450 Spring 2008

  2. Historical Failure Probability • U.S. Solid Rocket Systems (Failures/Attempts) • 6 / 412 (1.4%) Failures between 1980-20041 • 19 / 3382 (0.56%) Failures between 1964-19982 • Solid Propulsion Failure Rates (Failures/Attempts) • Upper Stage 0.0161 161/10000 • Monolithic 0.0025 25/10000 • Segmented 0.0077 77/10000 • Total 0.0056 56/10000 AAE 450 Spring 2008 Propulsion – Propellants

  3. Catastrophic Failure • Historically Solid Rocket failure results in catastrophic failure 37% of the time (19 solid failures, 7 were catastrophic) [1964-1998]1 • Solid Rocket Failure Rate (Failures/Attempts) • Failure 0.0056, 56/10000 • Catastrophic Failure 0.0021, 21/10000 • Working with Prop and whole team to finalize all designs and prop systems Future Work AAE 450 Spring 2008 Propulsion - Propellants

  4. Chang, I-Shih., Tomei, Edmardo Joe., “Solid Rocket Failures in World Space Launches.” AIAA Paper 2005-3793, Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 41st, Tuscon, Az, July 10-13, 2005 Sauvageu, Donald R., Allen, Brian D., “Launch Vehicle Historical Reliability.” AIAA-1998-3979 AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 34th, Cleveland, OH, July 13-15, 1998 References AAE 450 Spring 2008

  5. Reference 2 is based off a study of the following U.S. solid rocket launch systems included • Taurus • Conestoga • Athena • Minotaur • Pegasus • Scout

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