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March 9 th , 2010

Money Marine Conference. 7 th Annual Gulf Ship Finance Forum Dubai, UAE. March 9 th , 2010. Mustapha Boussaid Director - Maritime Investments. Waha Capital at a glance…. Factors influencing oil price….

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March 9 th , 2010

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  1. Money Marine Conference 7th Annual Gulf Ship Finance Forum Dubai, UAE March 9th, 2010 Mustapha Boussaid Director - Maritime Investments

  2. Waha Capital at a glance…

  3. Factors influencing oil price… Researchers believe oil prices will remain at around $80/ barrel for the coming years What are the factors driving the oil price? • Forecasting oil price helps in determining future demand for offshore rigs • Forecasting offshore rig activities will predict the demand for offshore support vessels • Oil prices are estimated to remain around $80/ barrel for the coming years • The base case scenario is derived from an average of 30 consecutive trading days of the NYMEX price for oil futures Iraq War Asian Growth Weaker Dollar Recession Historical Base Case Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd

  4. Oil price: a driving force behind offshore activities… Oil prices Offshore rigs activity Offshore support vessels • Rig activity is strongly tied to the domestic price of oil • Research forecasts a net 67-rig increase in global demand for mobile offshore drilling units throughout the year 2011, which indicates potential growth in the world’s offshore market • The Asia Pacific region accounts for more than 35% of the total 743 outstanding offshore rig requirements • In the Middle East, the growth will be focused more on the jackup segment due to the shallower water environment Offshore & Onshore Active rigs Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd Source: Baker-Hughes, Energy Information Administration (DOE)

  5. The Middle East field developments Key offshore projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4 million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion Key projects overview Source: MEED projects

  6. Overview on the Middle East Offshore Market 118 rigs- 75.4% Utilization rate 366 OSV’s- 77% Utilization rate The formula is : 1 rig = 3.1 OSV • The Middle East holds 15% of worldwide mobile offshore drilling units • 87% of the OSVs in the Middle East come from AHTS < 10,000 bhp • Based on ODS-Petrodata estimates, only 2 vessels are expected to be delivered in the M.E by 2012 which is good news for: • - Utilization rate to remain high • - Charter rate to remain constant Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd Source: CISL estimates, Clarkson

  7. Fleet Statistics Geographic distribution of Global AHTS and PSV • Asia-Pacific still dominating the mid and light fleet segment ( < 14,999 bhp) • Middle East dominates the light fleet segment after Asia-Pacific ( < 10,000 bhp) Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd

  8. Fleet & Newbuilds Decrease in newbuilds for AHTS less than 10,000 bhp will keep utilization rates robust for the coming years.. Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd

  9. Fleet Age Globally, the market is dealing with young fleets: 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old • Most of AHTS < 10,000 bhp fleet is shaped of very young and very old vessels • Most of AHTS > 15,000+ bhp fleet is less than 10 years of age Source: ODS-Petrodata Ltd

  10. Conclusion…. • Oil prices will remain at approximately $80/barrel for the coming years • Oil prices and demand for offshore support vesselsare positively correlated • Middle East is placed 6 in the global drilling rig requirement, holds 15% of offshore rigs • Global TC rates to decrease in the coming two years as supply continues to increase • On average, 1 rig will require 3 OSVs • The utilization rates in the shallow water regions will be kept robust in the coming years • Globally, 48% of AHTS vessels are less than 5 years old • Key projects in the Arabian Gulf produce 4.4million b/d for a cost of $46.7 billion

  11. Thank you! Mustapha Boussaid Director- Maritime Investment

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