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Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The Transportation Services Index: Its Methodology and Relationship to the Recent Recession. Ken Notis and Peg Young. Introduction. What is the Transportation Services Index (TSI)?

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Bureau of Transportation Statistics

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  1. Bureau of Transportation Statistics The Transportation Services Index: Its Methodology and Relationship to the Recent Recession Ken Notis and Peg Young

  2. Introduction • What is the Transportation Services Index (TSI)? • A monthly measure of the volume of services performed by the ‘for-hire’ transportation sector • Covers the activities of for-hire freight carriers, for-hire passenger carriers, and both types of carriers combined

  3. Transportation Services Index, Jan-90 to Jul-10 • TSI data and methodology are available for download at www.bts.gov.

  4. Transportation Services Output Index (TSOI) • TSI Predecessor • Research by Lahiri, Stekler and Yao • TSOI covered the span of 1979 to 2002 • Turning point analysis suggested the freight component of the TSOI leads the economy

  5. Historical TSI • BTS modifications to the TSOI • some different data sources • methods of weighting • estimating recent values • Published TSI spans from 1990 to the present • Presently provided on the BTS website • Historical TSI spans from 1979 to the present • Preliminary results shown in this presentation

  6. TSI Production Process Data Collection Index 2000 Weight & Combine Weight & Combine Seasonal Adjustment Chain Air RPM Passenger TSI Chained Passenger TSI Transit Ridership Rail RPM TSI Truck Tonnage Chained TSI Freight TSI Rail Carloads & Intermodals Waterborne Commerce Chained Freight TSI Air Ton-Miles Movement of Gas & Petroleum

  7. TSI-Total, Freight, and Passenger

  8. Measurement of Turning Points • Recessions • Use National Bureau of Economic Research approach (Bry and Boshan, 1971) • Moving averages • Spencer curves • Growth cycles • Detrend the data • Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim (2001)

  9. Freight TSI Smoothed

  10. TSI Compared to Recessions

  11. TSI Compared to Economic Growth Cycles

  12. Initial Conclusions • TSI freight leads the business cycle/growth cycle at peak turning points, is coincident at troughs • The extent of that lead varies considerably • The use of various standard time series techniques, such as deseasonalizing and smoothing, helps to clarify this relationship

  13. Freight TSI Actual and Smooth Jan-00 to Jul-10

  14. TSI and the Recession • TSI freight’s peak was in May 2006, 19 months before the recession began • TSI freight’s trough coincided with the end of the recession • TSI freight does not currently indicate a double dip • Why did TSI lead the recent recession by so much more than it had earlier recessions and slowdowns? • A different kind of recession? • Energy cost issues?

  15. Freight TSI and Gasoline, July-79 to July-10

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