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Addressing Uncertainty in Global Population Projections: A Seminar by the United Nations

Join us for the Breakfast Seminar at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA) from May 2-6, 2012, in San Francisco. This session, hosted by the United Nations Population Division, will focus on "How to take account of uncertainty?" with expert presentations on the World Population Prospects and urbanization. Key speakers include Gerhard Heilig, Adrian Raftery, Patrick Gerland, and John Bongaarts, discussing Bayesian methodologies and challenges in fertility projections. Engage in an open discussion with participants to explore these crucial topics.

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Addressing Uncertainty in Global Population Projections: A Seminar by the United Nations

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  1. Breakfast Seminar of the United Nations Population Division at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA), 2-6 May 2012, San FranciscoWorld Population ProspectsHow to take account of uncertainty? United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Sectionwww.unpopulation.org 2 May 2012

  2. Agenda • Welcome • Gerhard Heilig (United Nations) [7:15 - 7:25] The World Population Prospects and the World Urbanization Prospects: Preparation and outputs. (Overview) Adrian Raftery (University of Washington) [7:25 – 7:35] Methodology of a Bayesian hierarchical model of fertility projection. (Focus on high- and medium-fertility countries) Patrick Gerland (United Nations) [7:35 – 7:50] Probabilistic methods for projecting fertility: Methodological advances and challenges. (Focus on below-replacement fertility countries) • John Bongaarts(Population Council) [7:50 – 8:00] • Comments on the fertility models in the World Population Prospects • Open Discussion (with all participants)[8:00 – 8:20]

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