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What Are Weather Forecasts Worth? Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information

What Are Weather Forecasts Worth? Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information

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What Are Weather Forecasts Worth? Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information

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  1. What Are Weather Forecasts Worth?Stated Preference Approaches to Valuing Information Jeff Lazo Societal Impacts Program National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO www.sip.ucar.edu CANSEE, Toronto, CA - October 28, 2005

  2. Outline • Motivation of the Study • Prior Studies • Stated Preference Valuation • Survey Development • Results • Next Steps

  3. Motivation • Evaluate benefits to households of improvements in weather forecasting services • 104,705,000 households • Day-to-day weather • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

  4. Value of Weather Information • Haas and Rinkle (1979) • MSI Services Incorporated (1981) • Chapman (1992) • Anaman and Lellyett (1996) • Rollins and Shaykewich (2003) • Weather forecasts - quasi-public good • Non-market valuation methods • stated preference • contingent valuation • choice based methods

  5. Survey Development • Atmospheric Science Advisors (ASA) • attributes of weather forecasts • current and potential level of attributes • Focus groups (15 subjects) • One-on-one interviews (11 subjects) • Denver Pretest (84 Subjects) • Survey Expert Review Panel • North Carolina Focus Groups (23 subjects) • Multi-site implementation (381 Subjects) • National random sample (~1,400 Subjects)

  6. Survey Layout • Introduction • Sources, perceptions and uses • Forecast attributes • Value for improved weather forecasts • Stated choice - attributes of forecasts • Contingent valuation – demand characteristics • Household characteristics • Value for Current Forecasts • Severe Weather

  7. 9 cities – in-person self-administered written survey - ~25-30 minutes 381 Respondents Survey Implementation

  8. Socio-demographics

  9. Results • Perceptions (sources & uses) • Attributes and Levels • Valuation • modeling • value estimates

  10. PerceptionsImportance of Weather Forecast Characteristic

  11. PerceptionsImportance of Weather Forecast Characteristic

  12. Adequacy of Current Levels of Forecast Attributes

  13. Stated Choice:Attributes and Attribute Levels • Dollars per year per household of $3, $8, $15, $24 • Budget constraint reminder • 20 versions of survey • 9 Stated Choice and 1 Stated Value question

  14. Stated ChoiceQuest-ion

  15. A-B Probit Model

  16. Stated Choice Question

  17. A-B-Status Quo Model (Conditional Probit)

  18. Stated Value: Valuation Question

  19. Stated Value (WTP) Model

  20. Model Estimates(t-ratios in parentheses)

  21. National Valuation Estimate

  22. Next Steps • THORPEX Grant • Re-defining attribute sets and levels • Temperature: 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days • Precipitation : 0-2 days 3-6 days 7-14 days • Geographic Specificity • National sample - ~1400 completes • Internet based implementation • Probablistic forecast Information • Modeling and analysis • non-linear in attribute levels • random parameters • socio-demographic characteristics • Hurricanes!

  23. Questions?