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Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty

Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty. Daniel Lerch Post Carbon Cities Program Manager. www.postcarboncities.net. April 2008 - Ireland and UK. Local gov’t guidebook released Fall 2007:. www.postcarboncities.net. This Presentation. This presentation.

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Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty

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  1. Post Carbon Cities:Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel LerchPost Carbon Cities Program Manager www.postcarboncities.net April 2008 - Ireland and UK

  2. Local gov’t guidebook released Fall 2007: www.postcarboncities.net

  3. This Presentation This presentation... Peak Oil(and Gas and Coal and...)‏ Global Warming “Energy Uncertainty” “Climate Uncertainty” Identifying vulnerabilities. Reducing GHG emissions. Stop making the problems worse, and prepare for the effects that can’t be avoided.(“Four Next Steps” and “Five Principles”)‏ ENERGY CLIMATE 1. What’s happening? 2. What are the problems for cities? 3. What are cities already doing? 4. What’s the best course of action?

  4. What’s happening? Demand is RISING... ...but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall. • Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏ • Western world demand growth • The “easy oil” is gone • Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

  5. What’s happening? The old assumptions no longer fit... 2 Jan 2008oil hits $100/barrel * 2008 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64

  6. What’s happening? ...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'... http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm

  7. What’s happening? omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/MED_OMR06.pdf ...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead.

  8. What’s happening? www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=2007_4465038 ...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead. "There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now," [General Motors Chairman Rick] Wagoner said. - 15 January 08, "Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief," Sydney Morning Herald Energy demand has "outstripped new supply,” Bush told reporters. "That's why there's high price." - 16 January 08, "Saudis balk at Bush's oil advice," Los Angeles Times.

  9. What’s happening? The oil problem in two basic points: 1. Production of the “easy oil” has peaked. 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference.

  10. What’s happening? Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production peaked in 2005.

  11. What’s happening? 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand' Gap Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Campbell, C. 2004.

  12. What’s happening? What does this mean for decision-makers?: Declining Supply + Rising Demand= Higher Oil Prices + Oil Price / Supply Volatility “As oil peaking is approached, relatively minor events will likely have more pronounced impacts on oil prices and futures markets.” -- Hirsch, R., et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production.” Report for the U.S. Dep’t of Energy, Feb. 2005.

  13. What’s the problem? So, if this is the issue... Peak oil means both higher oil pricesand volatility in supply and price. ...how is this specifically a problem for CITIES? 1. Over-dependence on oil 2. Short-term challenges 3. Long-term challenges

  14. Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. 1. Over-dependence on oil • Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the ...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. • Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. • Oil is a non-interchangeable input (short-term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal.

  15. Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. 2. Short-term challenges • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt)‏

  16. Why is this a problem for cities? …higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs… Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. 2. Short-term challenges • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt)‏ • Unexpected price changes in other products(push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏

  17. Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. 2. Short-term challenges • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt)‏ • Unexpected price changes in other products(push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏ • Occasional shortages(Hurricane Katrina and North Carolina)‏

  18. Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. 3. Long-term challenges • How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) • How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems)

  19. Why is this a problem for cities? “Energy Uncertainty” Peak oil means both higher oil prices andvolatility in supply and price. How can cities... • set meaningful budgets • make long-range land use and transportation plans • serve residents and the local business community ...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies?

  20. Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil... when?

  21. What’s happening? We are changing some of the fundamental factors that influence global climate. GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. The average global temperature is rising, with uncertain consequences. ? ? • Prior and continuning industrialization. • 15 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it. • Local effects? Economic effects? • Trigger points? Feedback loops?

  22. Why is this a problem for cities? “Climate Uncertainty” • Dependence: • Ecosystem services. • Economy and society are subsets of the environment. • Short-term challenges: • Mitigation: Stop making it worse! • Adaptation: Deal with first effects. • Long-term challenges: • Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? • Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy?

  23. What’s the problem? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” GLOBAL WARMING PEAK OIL WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHAT’S THE ISSUE? 1. Oil prices depend on oil flows. 2. Oil is more difficult to produce. 3. Oil supply is less stable. 4. OPEC can’t make up the slack anymore. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? • Overdependence on oil • Dependence on global ecosystem • Short-term challenges(unexpected price changes, occasional shortages)‏ • Short-term challenges(dealing with first effects)‏ • Long-term challenges(how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?)‏ • Long-term challenges(long-term changes to climates and economies)‏ “Energy and Climate Uncertainty ”

  24. What are cities already doing?

  25. What are cities already doing? As of April 2008,over 800 mayors --from all 50 states and representing the 10 largest cities– have signed.

  26. What are cities already doing?

  27. What are cities already doing? Internal Report Public Report Burnaby, B.C. (January 2006)‏ Portland, Ore. regional gov’t (April 2006)‏ Hamilton, Ont. (February 2006)‏ Sebastopol, Calif. (April 2007)‏ Portland, Ore. (May 2007)‏

  28. What are other cities already doing? Resolution which creates... ...a Task Force. Portland, Ore. Oakland, Calif. Bloomington, Indiana San Francisco, Calif. Austin, Tex. Brattleboro, Vt. Spokane, Wash. Haines, Alaska Franklin, N.Y. Sebastopol, Calif.

  29. Portland Peak Oil Task Force

  30. Portland Peak Oil Task Force

  31. Portland Peak Oil Task Force

  32. Portland Peak Oil Task Force Excerpted from “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; available online at http://www.portlandonline.com/osd. 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2. Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. 3. Engage business, government and community leaders to initiate planning and policy change. Reduceoil & NG consumption Provide leadership View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

  33. Portland Peak Oil Task Force 4. Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide easy access to services and transportation options. 5. Design infrastructure to promote transportation optionsand facilitate efficient movement of freight... 6. Encourage energy-efficient and renewable transportation choices. 7. Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentivesfor all new and existing structures. Land use & transporta-tion Efficiency, conservation View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

  34. Portland Peak Oil Task Force 8. Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities. 10. Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11. Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Economic development Support system Emergency planning View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

  35. Portland Peak Oil Task Force What has Portland BEEN doing? • Most green buildings in US (LEED) • Highest per capita hybrid auto ownership in US • Transit ridership up 85% • Bike trips over bridges quintupled • Vehicle miles traveled decreased 7% per capita • Gasoline sales down 13% per capita • Household energy down 5% per capita • City energy-efficiency projects saving $2.6M/yr • Recycling rate more than tripled Portland Office of Sustainable Development

  36. Portland Peak Oil Task Force Portland 2010 Goal: 10% below 1990 levels 2032 Goal: 50% reduction in fossil fuels Emissions level required to avoid severe climate disruption Portland Office of Sustainable Development

  37. Post Carbon Cities guidebook The “Five Long-term Principles”

  38. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

  39. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).[continued...]

  40. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 2. Tackle private energy consumption. LEED Platinum university building, Arizona Zero-energy housing, Germany

  41. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3. Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

  42. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 4. Plan for fundamental changes... andmake fundamental changes happen.

  43. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5. Build a sense of community.

  44. Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5. Build a sense of community.

  45. Post Carbon Cities guidebook

  46. $30.00 USD/CADQuantity discounts available Post Carbon Cities book and program Daniel Lerch, Program Manager www.postcarboncities.net daniel@postcarbon.org

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