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Advancements in 0-6 Hour Probabilistic Weather Forecasts Through Automation and Forecaster Input

This initiative focuses on enhancing 0-6 hour probabilistic forecasts by integrating automation, numerical weather prediction (NWP), and expert forecaster insights. The NCWF-2 project emphasizes the development of observation-based forecasts, utilizing radar mosaics and lightning data to improve accuracy. Future enhancements like the Extended NCWF (E-NCWF) aim to synergize observational data, NWP, and forecaster input for better decision-making. User perspectives highlight the need for calibrated risk assessments, while ongoing research addresses the predictability of convective events and improving verification techniques.

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Advancements in 0-6 Hour Probabilistic Weather Forecasts Through Automation and Forecaster Input

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  1. NCWF Plans Cindy Mueller (NCAR) Steve Weygandt (FSL) Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL), Barb Brown (NCAR), and Jesse Sparks (AWC) Goal: 0-6hr Probablistic Forecasts that combine automation, NWP, and forecaster input Photo courtesy of Gregg Thompson

  2. NCWF DemonstrationsProbability Forecasts (strategic planning) • NCWF-2 • 1 & 2-h observation based • Radar mosaics, lightning, & RUC • ExADDs • NCAR • Extended NCWF (E-NCWF) • 2, 4 & 6-h RUC based • WWW page (next summer) • FSL/NOAA • Future • Fused observations, NWP and forecaster, 0-6 hr forecast • Test in summer 05 NCWF-2 19z + 2h E-NCWF

  3. NCWF-2 Operational NCWF NCWF-2 • 1-2 hr probability forecasts • Capture regions of growth • Trend dissipation • 1 hr Extrapolation (cyan) • Binary yes/no

  4. RTVS Verification – 1hr

  5. Large-scale Trending of Dissipation Black contours NCWD verification observation 1-hr without Trending 1-hr with Trending 2-hr without Trending 2-hr with Trending CSI 1-hr Forecast Black – Without trending Magenta – With trending

  6. CIWS VIL 11 Z NCWF-2 10z + 1h NCWF-2 09z + 2h E-NCWF, NCWF-2, and Forecaster Input July 14, 2004 Valid - 11Z Forecaster: - Strong upper-tropospheric divergence over the western NY/PA, weak low-level jet and warm-air advection provides additional forcing, thus elevated convection likely to persist throughout the early morning hours.

  7. ANC Forecast loop

  8. Finally One Last Slide…PROBABILITIES • Forecaster/developer perspective • Quantify uncertainty • Provide a methodology (or common unit) to combine observational-based forecasts with NWP. • Requires additional research to better quantify predictability of convective events and associated environmental processes. • User perspective • Calibrate decisions based on probability and risk • Maps of probabilities of convection alone not entirely useful (information about echo tops or convective organization very helpful) • Verification • Problems that arise in current verification techniques due to off-set errors and difference in scales between forecast and observations are not alleviated by probability forecasts.

  9. Thank You!

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