Interactions between Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security John Ingram GECAFS IPO

1. Interactions between Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security John Ingram GECAFS IPO NERC/University of Oxford

2. Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050 IPCC 4AR Chapter 5

3. Wheat yield trend from 1951 to 2005 in the Yaqui Valley of Sonora, Mexico Ortiz et al., 2008

4. Extreme Events: lost productionTabasco State, Mexico, November 2007 “100 per cent of crops are lost. We haven't seen this in 50 years.” Governor Andres Granier

5. Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit 1996) … depends on more that agricultural production

6. Many economies and households rely on agricultural and food system incomes

7. Poverty and food insecurity

8. Food price increases

9. Change in the price of foodImpacts depend on how markets are assumed to operate IPCC AR4

10. Food System “Activities” have strong feedbacks to environment • Food Producing • Food Processing & Packaging • Food Distributing & Retailing • Food Consuming • Changes in: • Land cover & soils • Atmospheric composition • Water availability & quality • Nutrient availability & cycling • Biodiversity

11. Total GHG emissions for food supply chain associated with household food consumption in the US 11% 83% 6% Weber & Matthews,Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008

12. What are the major global environmental issues interacting with food security? • Over-exploitation of the natural resource base • Loss of biodiversity • Disruption to biogeochemical cycles and other aspects of Earth system functioning • Climate change • Potential increase in hydro-meteorological extreme events • All affect agriculture, rural livelihoods and food security • All driven by food system activities • All world-wide, interacting phenomena • Complex and varied international science agenda

13. International Global Environmental Science is addressing many aspects of these issues 3 Core Projects ESSP 9 Core Projects • Changes that are occurring to the Earth System • Implications of these changes for global sustainability 6 Core Projects 5 Core Projects

14. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) ~ 65 countries, foundations & int. organisations that fund research in an Alliance of 15 centers To achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through scientific research and research-related activities in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, policy, and environment. • Sustainable production • Enhancing national capacities • Germplasm improvement • Natural resources management • Policy

15. CGIAR “Challenge Program” Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (Climate Change Challenge Program: CCCP) Developing a CGIAR–ESSP collaboration

16. Agreed criteria for collaborativeCGIAR-ESSP research(from the Oxford w/s, Feb 2007) • Jointly recognised as a priority research programme by both science communities and relevant to stakeholders (researchers, farmers, resource managers, donors, policy makers, etc…). • Addresses key knowledge gaps related to food security, sustainability and development. • Requires active, large-scale institutional collaboration between the two science communities combining social and natural systems, at multiple scales of time/space. • Maximises the chance for success in delivering solutions to climate change adaptation and mitigation for agriculture and food security that are based on innovative science outputs.

17. CCCP goal To overcome the additional threats posed by a changing climate to attaining food security, enhancing livelihoods and improving environmental management.

18. CCCP Objectives • Overcome critical gaps in knowledge of how to enhance – and manage the tradeoffs between – food security, livelihood and environmental goals in the face of a changing climate. [=> outputs] • Develop and evaluate options for adapting to a changing climate to inform agricultural development, food security policy and donor investment strategies. [=> outcomes] • Assist farmers, policymakers, researchers and donors to continually monitor, assess and adjust their actions in response to a changing climate. [=> impacts]

19. Improved Environmental Benefits Improved Livelihoods Improved Food Security Trade-offs CCCP Research Framework and Science Themes Climate Variability and Change Current agricultural & food systems 1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoff analysis ANALYTICAL & DIAGNOSTIC FRAMEWORK 2 Role of macro-level policies 3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions ADAPTATION PATHWAYS 4 Managing climate risk 5 Progressive climate change 6 Adaptation through mitigation Adapted agricultural & food systems

20. 3 initial focus regions Build on and contribute to ongoing GEC and Alliance work • East Africa • West Africa • Indo-Gangetic Plain • AMMA • CGIAR Alliance Collective Actions • AfricaNESS • GECAFS/APN • CGIAR RWC • MAIRS (esp. glaciers, water resources, RMIP)

21. Next steps Steering Cmmtt Director and Host institution Theme Leaders/institutions Critical to maintain visibility within, and balance between, both the GEC and agriculture research communities

22. CCCP offers IGFA members chance to: • identify and promote innovative GEC science issues related to natural resource management • add value to IGFA agencies’ investment • develop strong “science for society” agenda • develop GEC research capacity in the developing world • build bridges with development agencies • integrate GEC science more effectively with development agenda to help address MDGs, esp: MDG1: poverty and hunger MDG7: environmental sustainability