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Part Four

[Agents of Transformation]. Part Four. Physical & Social Erosion Globalization The Metropolitan Area Declining Birth Rates. Agents of Transformation Crumbling Towns. The Underlying Forces of Rural Change – Emerging Behavior in Persistently Declining Communities. Transforming Experience.

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Part Four

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  1. [Agents of Transformation] Part Four Physical & Social ErosionGlobalization The Metropolitan AreaDeclining Birth Rates

  2. Agents of TransformationCrumbling Towns The Underlying Forces of Rural Change – Emerging Behavior in Persistently Declining Communities

  3. Transforming Experience I once woke up and thought that I was dead, but then I realized that I was in NebraskaClint Eastwood

  4. A Matter of Perspective Vibrant Town Center of Haddington, Scotland – 570 years old Dangerous Missouri Building – 87 years old

  5. 100 Years of Use, But 50 Years of Neglect

  6. Our basic stock of commercial and industrial buildings create wealth in the form of tax transfers on property and at the point of sale.

  7. Ron “Doc” Postun The highway still may wind through country towns, but these have been struck with "rural blight': shuttered Main Street businesses and crumbling buildings. Homemade cobbler or fresh peaches are nowhere to be found, though you might be able to pick up a bag of Oreos at a tiny gas pump/convenience store. The towns seem on the verge of disappearance. Few would regret leaving this landscape.

  8. The brick towns of the Great Plains are the agents of their own destruction • The bricks were quick fired and lose their compression strength at the point of contract with the foundation • The typical Great Plains town is now 120 years old • About 70% of CBD buildings are owned by absentee landlords • About 20% areabandoned • Marginal Restoration = $275,000+ which is about $50 per sq. ft.

  9. Restoration is still possible, but now almost totally relegated to the private market after withdrawal of block grants

  10. We expend, on the average, about 18 percent on our total tax take on infrastructure & repair • Three general periods when our existing infrastructure was installed – • 1919 – 1929 • 1947 – 1966 • 1976 – 1984 • To replace our current infrastructure by 2040 for 454 million people will require at least 32 percent of our tax take

  11. In Other Words

  12. Agents of TransformationEmergent Globalization • Globalization Is An Emerging Set of Goals, Policies, and Applications Designed To Increase The Wealth Of Local, Regional, And Sub-National Areas

  13. Sovereignty, Globalization Outsourcing & Tax • The “vanishing taxpayer” – harmonizing global taxes • The terrible economic cost to the developing world compliments of the World Bank • Cheap labor, cheaper goods and the race to the bottom are the flip side of globalization • The bottom line is that wage earners, will be privatized to compete with the self-employed

  14. Please note that globalization may not increase your wealth, but like democracy itself – you can be assured that you will get what you deserve!

  15. The most noticeable immediate impact of globalization is The New Economy. This refers to the idea that the broad application of information technology throughout the globe has altered the rules previously thought to govern the business cycle, investment, knowledge transfer and economic development strategy New Economy

  16. 1970 300 bps @ 1 MHz 56 Kbps @ 16 MHz 1986 1990 15 Mbps @ 66 MHz 200 – 274 Mbps DSN4 @ 3.5 GHz 2005 2015 Arpanet/Internet/Internet II Backbone Speeds Velocity 800 – 950 teraflops per second @ 31 GHz 2.33 – 2.67 THz

  17. Rigging the Market • For our rural communities to stay with the curve in thenew economy, they must “rig” the market by: • Jobs creation Connecting to the backbone Public/private partnerships

  18. Creating Image We must create a new image of ourselves – no more Dorothy & TOTO

  19. New Synergies and Models for the 21st Century Globalism Bornof New Ideas

  20. Changing economic forces at the global level will create a new layer of stress on the fight for local resources • The pressure to replace infra-structure will reach a critical cycle from 2016 – 2030 as the 1955 interstate highway disintegrates • Declining infrastructure means less tax revenue • We all sit at the same trough when it comes to tax revenue

  21. Metropolitan Forces Implosion and Expansion • Def – One or more counties with an urban area of 50,000 population or more; or, a place that comprises a component economic area of 50,000 persons or more

  22. Percent of Total World Population Living Rural Tipping point came in 2005 when the world went 51% metropolitan 49 percent rural

  23. Our Global Village 2050 Russian West 67 Federation 55 Europe Latin Americans North 52 84 Americans Eastern Europe. Africans 28 124 Aus./N.Z. 6 Asians 584

  24. 1970 25 1985 2000 20 15 10 5 0 5 - 10 Million Persons 10 - 15 Million Persons 15 Million Or More The Metro Engine Since 1970

  25. World Metropolitan Agglomeration

  26. NASA – Composite of 2,204 pictures from Hubble Telescope with light enhancement 102%

  27. Growth % Land Use

  28. Atlanta v. Mexico City 10 year level annualized cost differential for service & infrastructure 708 billion Mexico City Metro 17.2 million 570 sq. miles Atlanta Metro 3.9 million 1963 sq, miles

  29. Superermetro • In 2003, United Nations’ Census Estimates Would Indicate That 10 Supermetros Are 15 million persons or larger • What are the top five? • When will we see the first 50 million person metro?

  30. World’Largest Tokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 million New York Urban Region = 30.286 million Mexico City Urban Region = 23.9 million Seoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 million Sao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 million Mumbia (Bombay) could be larger In 1996 the first Supermetro passed 30 million. The first 50 million Megametro is expected to occur in 2029 -

  31. Rural v Metro Growth 2060 Bureau of Census, Middle Projection Series - 2060

  32. Growth in the USA U.S. Population in 1950 162. million U.S. Population in 2050 419 million World Population 1950 2.550 billion World Population 2050 9.190 billion

  33. Compared to China Watch these age groups

  34. The Non-Metro Side

  35. Basic American Rural Demography • A vital piece of American • Seventy-nine percent of our land mass • Home to 24 million people • A striking combination of the best and the worst America has to offer

  36. Over I million 10 • . 5 to 1 Million 14 • .25 to .499 Million 42 • .1 to .249 Million 153 • 50,000 to 99,999 347 • 25,000 to 49,999 597 • 10,000 to 24,999 1,366 • Under 10,000 16,808 • Under 5,000 12,345 • Under 1,000 7,842 United States Of America All census counting places 2003 estimated: 19,335 places There are 53 metropolitan areas in the U.S. larger than 1,000,000 persons

  37. Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties 2004

  38. County Typologies Non-Metro in 1990 & 2000 (2007 counties) Non-Metro to Metro 1990 – 2000 (298) Metro to Non-Metro 1990 – 2000 (45) Metro in 1990 & 2000 (791 counties)

  39. Farm Dependent Counties 2000 1950 2020

  40. Really, Really Rural These two colors are not good

  41. The Heartland

  42. Shifting Population Core 1990 - 2000 Red = 8% increase of more Yellow = 1 – 7 percent White = little change or decline

  43. Percent Change in K-12 Students 1990 - 2000 Green is Bad Kusler&Schwartbeck - 2004

  44. Growth Patterns 1950 - 2000 Dark purple represents continuous decline

  45. LittleChange Lost Gained Quick Facts • There are 3141 County census counting areas • 2398 gained population, but the gain in 400 of these counties is marginal • 1743 lost population • About 600 counties lost less than 2% of their population • About 400 counties lost 10% or more • 60% of the entire loss came from the Great Plains/West States

  46. The Twilight Zones

  47. Frontier Counties of the U.S. With Less Than 6 persons sq. mile

  48. Frontier County Demographics

  49. Rural Counties of the U.S.

  50. U.S. Rapid Growing Counties • 20 counties increased population from 75 to 181 percent 1990 – 2000 • 8 are in Colorado; 2 in Nevada • 4 are in Georgia; 1 in Virginia • 2 in Texas; 2 in Utah; 1 in Idaho

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