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The Future of Manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge Professor Steve Evans, University of Cambridge. Scope. Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project

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  1. The Future of Manufacturing:A new era of opportunity and challengeProfessor Steve Evans, University of Cambridge

  2. Scope Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project Objective has been to investigate changes and uncertainties facing UK manufacturing activities, to 2050 where possible, to inform how the UK can create and capture future value. Vince Cable is the sponsoring minister. Findings available for BIS to use to inform development of future policy. 2

  3. A recent context of historical shifts… Manufacturing share of GDP 1990-2010 • 10% of UK economy (1973: 29%) • Employs under 3m people (1966: 9m) • Similar trends elsewhere 3 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013

  4. With areas of weak relative performance… ...and some areas of strong relative performance • Expenditure on manufacturing R&D • Levels of capital investment • Falling share of global exports • Strong total factor productivity • Increasing proportion of output exported 4 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  5. The sector makes powerful contributions to the UK economy • Absolute value: 10% of GDP (£139 bn in 2012) • Exports: 53% of UK exports in 2012 (£256 billion) • R&D: 72-79% UK business R&D spend 2000-11 • Productivity: growth 2.3% p.a. (1980-2009) UK 0.7% • Jobs: high skilled and well paid • Resilience: provides resilience in face of recession 5 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  6. Timetable • Lead Expert Group • Industry High Level • Stakeholder Group • Drafting of chapters • Engagement with • BIS & HMT Research Synthesis Launch Scoping Feb-Jul 2013 28 October 2013 Apr 2012-Feb 2013 Jan-Mar 2012 • 37 commissioned evidence papers, 2000+pages • 3 international workshops • Engagement with industry • UK roundtable events 6

  7. Changing nature of manufacturing By 2050: Manufacturing will be a complex, value creating system.Emphasis not on production or services but on flexing business models and offerings to create value in new and interesting ways. 7

  8. Technological change and uncertainty • By 2050: technology will drive a revolution… • Incremental leaps forward • (pervasive ICT; integration of • sensors = big data; application of • materials; sustainability) • Radical developments (biological • & medical developments; additive) • Disruptivebreakthroughs (unknown) • …changing how products are designed, offered and used by customers 8

  9. Environmental change and uncertainty By 2050: sustainability will no longer be optional… • Resources (materials, water, energy, land) • Population (3 billion more people) wealth / age • Climate change (weather events) • ‘Pricing the Environment’ • Standards • Consumer pull …business models will have to shift to reduce exposure to commodity shocks & exploit opportunities 9

  10. Sociological change and uncertainty By 2050: we will have seen jobless growth… • 170k fewer roles by 2020, no return to mass cuts - • current employment levels just under 3 million • 800k roles to fill by 2020 (ageing population a factor) • demand for professionals, ‘hybrid’ expertise, STEM • Potential for cognitive / physical enhancement? …with strong demand for workers with ‘hybrid’ expertise as countries compete on quality 10

  11. International perspectives on change and uncertainty • 5 areas of long term shared interest emerged from • workshops in Berlin, Washington DC and Singapore: • Sustainability (emphasis on resource efficiency) • Education and skills • Automation • Big data • New models of distributed manufacturing • Interests highlight fascinating balances: • (1) Investment in automation versus jobs • (2) Global versus local supply chains • (3) Distributed versus traditional manufacturing 11

  12. 1. More than making a product and selling it • Services with products e.g. Rolls Royce • Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM • Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar • Manufacturers will increasingly make use of a wider value chain to create revenue. 12 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  13. #FoMn #manufacturing 2. Faster, more responsive and closer to customers • Mass personalisation of products on demand • Distributed: big high-tech, modular, home, mobile • Greater design freedom • More digital connections along value chains 13 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  14. #FoMn #manufacturing 3. Exposed to new market opportunities • Changes to personal wealth / ageing populations • BRICs and the ‘Next 11’ • Continued global ‘fragmentation’ of the value chain • Some ‘onshoring’ 14 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  15. #FoMn #manufacturing 4. Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers • Strong demand for manufacturing workers • A need to accommodate more older workers • Importance of STEM qualifications • Blending of technical & commercial ‘hybrid’ skills • Potential for humanenhancement 15 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  16. #FoMn #manufacturing 5. More sustainable • Growing / urban populations raise resource demand • Climate change and global supply chain vulnerability • Volatility in price & availability of commodities • Reuse, remanufacturing, recycling: circular economy 16 Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 7th November 2013 Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output

  17. Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30th October 2013

  18. Future of manufacturing • Lean & Clean: (eco)-efficiency • Never can say goodbye: closed loop • Make it anywhere: local making • Keeping in touch, experiments, selling service • Knowing me, knowing you: using big data • Kissing frogs: new collaborations • Slow making, provenance, high value this is a personal (Steve Evans) picture

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