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Douglas Miller UNC Asheville Laurence Lee NOAA/National Weather Service, Greer, SC

Status Report on the S ounding-based E xperiment on M ixed P recipitation E vents (SEMPE) 2006-2007. Douglas Miller UNC Asheville Laurence Lee NOAA/National Weather Service, Greer, SC. SEMPE. Outline Background Purpose Status Making lemonade out of lemons Collaborations

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Douglas Miller UNC Asheville Laurence Lee NOAA/National Weather Service, Greer, SC

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  1. Status Report on theSounding-based Experiment on Mixed Precipitation Events (SEMPE) 2006-2007 Douglas Miller UNC Asheville Laurence Lee NOAA/National Weather Service, Greer, SC

  2. SEMPE • Outline • Background • Purpose • Status • Making lemonade out of lemons • Collaborations • Upcoming research • Future field programs

  3. SEMPE • Background, 15 December 2005 photo by John Cunningham

  4. SEMPE • 15 December 2005 photo by David P. Smith

  5. SEMPE • 15 December 2005 analysis and graphic by Patrick Moore

  6. SEMPE • 15 December 2005 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/lcldata.htm table by Patrick Moore

  7. SEMPE • 15 December 2005 analysis and graphic by Patrick Moore

  8. SEMPE • Cold air damming climatology figure from Bell and Bosart (1988)

  9. SEMPE • Cold air damming antecedent synoptic scale structure SLP figures from Bell and Bosart (1988)

  10. SEMPE • Freezing rain schematic (courtesy Brooks Martner)

  11. SEMPE • Background Elevation gain from 680 to 6800 feet Swannanoa River Basin USGS DEM topography map

  12. SEMPE • Purpose, research • Examine certain aspects of the cold air infiltration through the mountains during damming events

  13. SEMPE • Purpose, research The study addresses two of the highest priority items for research as listed by the NWS Office of Science and Technology: • The effect of topography and other surface forcing on local weather regimes • Locally hazardous weather, especially severe convection, winter weather, and phenomena that affect aviation

  14. SEMPE • Purpose, education

  15. SEMPE • Purpose, education • Improve the quality of education for the undergraduate students enrolled at the University of North Carolina Asheville (UNCA) • through the increased awareness of the NWS operational problems and needs • through the direct involvement of research in conducting the soundings and in analyzing the event case studies

  16. SEMPE • Purpose, operations • Model validation of the operational NAM and of local workstation mesoscale models (e.g., WRF). The high temporal resolution of the soundings will provide a good data set to compare against the model output, including the BUFR soundings. • Directly helps the NWS meet two of its Government Performance Results Act (GPRA) goals • Winter Storm Warning Accuracy (Probability of Detection) • Winter Storm Warning Lead Time • Provide excellent training opportunities for next year and beyond • Winter Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC)

  17. SEMPE • Status – location,

  18. SEMPE • Status

  19. SEMPE • Status, 12-h forecast valid 1200 UTC 1 Feb 2007 RUC ETA

  20. SEMPE • Status, RUC analysis valid 1200 UTC 1 Feb 2007

  21. SEMPE • Making lemonade out of lemons NOAA SAYS U.S. WINTER TEMPERATURE NEAR AVERAGEGlobal December-February Temperature Warmest on Record http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2819.htm

  22. SEMPE • Making lemonade out of lemons http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2819.htm

  23. SEMPE • Making lemonade out of lemons (thru April) • Mixed precipitation • NW flow snowfall • “Snowstorm of the Century” • Diurnal evolution of boundary layer • COMET fire weather model study – Dr. Etherton • Convection crossing the mountains • Windstorm events

  24. SEMPE • Collaborations • Prof. Baker Perry (Appalachian State Univ.) • Prof. Sandra Yuter (NC State Univ.) • Ku-band radar • disdrometer • weighing gauge

  25. MicroRainRadar Weighing Rain Gauge Parsivel Disdrometer Instrumentation behind Perry residence (3340 ft, 81º 54’48” W, 36º 15’09” N)

  26. MRR Summary: 12Z 9 Jan to 01Z 10 Jan (4.0” snow – 0.31” swe)

  27. SEMPE • Collaborations • Ken Galluppi, Jessica Proud (Renci)

  28. MRR Reflectivity Data • Shows amount of power returned to radar from precipitation • Power return depends on the number and size of precip No precip aloft at this time Snow begins to fall aloft, but evaporates before it hits the ground Snow begins to fall again Sleet changes over to rain and sleet/rain mix Snow changes over to sleet ~11:40 Height (ft) Dry layer moistening, snow reaches ground Precip ended No precip at surface ~2.5 hr of no precip Time (4am-2:20pm)

  29. SEMPE • Upcoming research • Systematic comparison between model soundings and SEMPE soundings • Case study analysis • 1 February 2007 • Topographic-based modeling studies • WRF-ARW • WRF-EMS (NMM)

  30. SEMPE • Future field programs • SEMPE0809 • HMT East • Warm season • Continuous program? • Educational benefits • Operational benefits

  31. SEMPE • Acknowledgements A special “thank you” to • Mr. Richard Lind - Naval Postgraduate School • Ms. Karen Joslin - Warren Wilson College

  32. SEMPE

  33. SEMPE • Purpose, education The proposed COMET Outreach Partner Project is to take observations of vertical profiles of temperature, moisture, and wind during synoptic events that are favorable for mixed precipitation (any combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain) in order to provide more information about the nature and evolution of the cold air damming that leads to significant freezing precipitation accumulations.

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