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Short-Term Forecast Errors in Pressure Sensor Readings Comparison

This study examines the 48-hour forecast errors from various models such as ETA, AVN, UKMO, NOGAPS. Coastal errors and large discrepancies at Tatoosh Island and Cape Arago are highlighted. The inter-annual variability and differences in pressure forecasts by GFS and Eta are analyzed.

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Short-Term Forecast Errors in Pressure Sensor Readings Comparison

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  1. Forecast Pressure

  2. ASOS Pressure Sensor

  3. 12-km

  4. Eta 24-h 03 March 00UT 1999 Eta 48-h 03 March 00UT 1999 An example of a short-term forecast error

  5. ETA AVN UKMO NOGAPS 48-hr Forecasts Valid 00 UTC 8 February 2002

  6. AVN ETA UKMO NOGAPS 24-Hr Forecasts Valid 00 UTC 8 February 2002

  7. Station Locations Tatoosh Is. Cape Arago

  8. Large Errors Inter-annual variability 24 h Coastal Errors TTI, WA Cape Arago, OR

  9. 48-h Errors 48h errors much larger and frequent than 24-h errors

  10. GFSvs. Eta 24-h errors NCEP GFSbetter than Eta on average

  11. 48-h errors GFS over forecasts Eta under forecasts

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