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Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island Subproject 9 within the EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK Dr. St

Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island Subproject 9 within the EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK Dr. Stefan Reese / Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau. Contents Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Estimation Final remarks. Background. Scales. Risk-Concept.

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Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island Subproject 9 within the EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK Dr. St

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  1. Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island Subproject 9 within the EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK Dr. Stefan Reese / Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau

  2. Contents • Background • Scales • Risk-Concept • Valuation Analysis • Damage Estimation • Final remarks Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  3. Background • The objective is a detailed risk assessment for the Langeoog Island • A detailed approach requires a very detailed and time-consuming methodology • The methodology is based on the procedures developed by the University Kiel within the MERK project Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  4. Coastal lowlands < 5 m of Schleswig-Holstein MICRO MESO MACRO Scales Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  5. Risk-Concept • Risk assessment requires several steps, procedures and large amount of data • In MERK an integrated Risk- Concept was developed • In this framework Risk analysis is apart from the risk evaluation and the risk management an important aspect Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  6. Study areas - MERK Kiel Urban area St. Peter-Ording Tourist area Fehmarn Agricultural area Kaiser-Wilhelm- Koog Agricultural area Timmendorfer Strand und Scharbeutz Tourist area Valuation Analysis - Methodology • The methodology of valuation analysis was developed in the MERK-project • Six study areas to consider different structures Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  7. Trauma, higher reduced Stress Vulne- rability Invest- ments of Survivors Storm surge damage categories direct indirect tangible intangible tangible intangible primary secondary primary secondary primary secondary primary secondary • Buildings • Private inventory • Motor vehicles • Traffic areas • Agricultural land • Livestock assets • Forest land • Real estate values • Recreational land • Fixed assets • Stock values • Wind power station • Inhabitants • Gross value added • Jobs • Guest beds Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Different damage categories were assessed in MERK Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  8. Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Macro- and mesoscale studies are mainly using state and federal statistics • Microscale methods require very detailed information about material and non-material values Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  9. Register of houses from 15.10.2003 Registry office: Langeoog Municipality: Langeoog Selection: Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg Inhabitants Postcode Street House number HW NW 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 1 2 1 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 2 0 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 3 5 0 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 4 5 0 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 5 0 4 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 6 2 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 7 2 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 8 4 1 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 9 0 0 Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Data Base • ALK • DTM • DGK5 and ATKIS • Field work • Insurance companies • Internal municipality data • Interviews with experts Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  10. Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Demarcation of the closer study area Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  11. Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Different procedures for the particulardamage categories • Example: Buildings at risk • Field work: type of building, number of storeys, age, use • GIS: extract the surface area of each building from the ALK Background Scales Risk-Concept • Valuation: through Valuation Guidelines and Manufacturing Costs 2000 (BMV, 2001). Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  12. Valuation Analysis - Methodology Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  13. Valuation Analysis - Methodology • Example: Inhabitants at risk • Determination of addresses from the field mapping respectively the official land property register • Query of the number of inhabitants from the internal municipality residential register Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  14. Register of houses from 15.10.2003 Registry office: Langeoog Municipality: Langeoog Selection: Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg Inhabitants Postcode Street House number HW NW 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 1 2 1 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 2 0 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 3 5 0 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 4 5 0 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 5 0 4 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 6 2 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 7 2 2 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 8 4 1 26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 9 0 0 Valuation Analysis - Methodology Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  15. Valuation Analysis - Results Results by heights and damage categories Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  16. Valuation Analysis - Results Results by heights (< 5.5m asl) and damage categories Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  17. Valuation Analysis - Results Spatial distribution of the inhabitants at risk Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  18. Valuation Analysis - Results Spatial distribution of the damage potential Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  19. Valuation Analysis - Results Comparison of the results with the study areas in MERK Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  20. Damage Estimation - Methodology • A methodology for a damage estimation was developed in the MERK-project • First of all the flooding process and different dike breaching scenarios have to be modeled • Computation of the flood depths and flood duration within the investigation area Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  21. Damage Estimation - Methodology • Computation of the damage expectationwith depth-damage-functions for different damage categories • Functions were developed with an expert questioning • Example: private inventory Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  22. Damage Estimation - Methodology Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  23. Final remarks • Both the valuation analysis and the damage estimation still showing methodical weaknesses • In the EU-Project FLOODsite these deficits are supposed to be reduced • Standardization of risk analysis Background Scales Risk-Concept Valuation Analysis Damage Analysis Final remarks

  24. Thank you for your attention!

  25. Further information: www.kuestengeographie.de

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