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Shipping and Law Conference Shipbuilding

Shipping and Law Conference Shipbuilding. Naples, October 2011. Didier CHALEAT, SVP Bureau Veritas. Market issues . Didier CHALEAT, SVP Bureau Veritas , Managing Director Marine West Zone. After an unprecedented “wave” of new orders an unprecedented shipbuilding crisis?.

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Shipping and Law Conference Shipbuilding

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  1. Shipping and Law ConferenceShipbuilding Naples, October 2011 Didier CHALEAT, SVP Bureau Veritas

  2. Market issues Didier CHALEAT, SVP Bureau Veritas , Managing Director Marine West Zone

  3. After an unprecedented “wave” of new orders an unprecedented shipbuilding crisis? Charter rates increases from 2006 to 2008, fueled by Western and Far East development have brought unprecedented high revenues to shipping. And “vicious” circle started : Huge number of new orders placed mainly in Far East yards, often too quickly and at “sellers” conditions, at too high prices in first years; Outstanding investments for increase of shipbuilding capacities including new yards, subcontracting, hiring, training of large number of new employees too rapidly with delays and quality issues. 2008, recession started in western, with restriction in finance of new building programs, 2009, low level of new orders, 2010, much higher level of new orders but with no direct relation with demand- ignited to compensate delays in deliveries of container vessels (to help postpone the container oversupply crisis)

  4. After an unprecedented “wave” of new orders an unprecedented shipbuilding crisis? 2011, unexpected high level of orders for container vessels and lng carriers without short term demand increase: Tankers: (tdw) fleet growth from beginning 2008: +25% orderbook sep 2011/existing fleet: +20% Bulk carriers: (tdw) fleet growth from beginning 2008: +50% orderbook sep 2011/existing fleet: +40% LNG Carriers: (m3) fleet growth from beginning 2008: +65% orderbook sep 2011/existing fleet: +20% Container vessels: (teu) fleet growth from beginning 2010: +40% orderbook sep 2011/existing fleet: +30%

  5. After an unprecedented “wave” of new orders an unprecedented shipbuilding crisis? Despite BRICS growth perspective charter rates started to deeply drop with oversupply fueled by too many new deliveries versus demand, in many sectors of shipping. And finance access seem more and more restricted. So what next if no market need orders to be placed by shipyards in due proportion of their massively increased capacity, especially in China ? Deliveries world wide 2004: 30 m GT; China 12% Deliveries world wide 2010: 65 m GT; China 40% Sept 2011 orderbook : 257 mGT !!! Shipbuilding market becoming again buyer’s market? But higher risk of insolvencies and Competition with new potential subsidies policies to keep employment in shipyards fueling even more speculative orders with their consequences to lengthen the crisis….!!!

  6. Market information BRSBarry Rogliano Salles

  7. TRANSPORT VOLUMES STILL INCREASING Bulk & Container drivengrowth Oildrivengrowth (Source BRS)

  8. BUT FLEET GROWTH IS STRONG TOO (Source BRS)

  9. OIL PRODUCT DEMAND GROWTH LOWER IN 2011

  10. OIL DEMAND RELATIVELY STRONG BUT FLEET OVERCAPACITY

  11. FLEET: VLCC

  12. FLEET: SUEZMAX

  13. MAJOR DRY BULK DEMAND

  14. DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES

  15. DRY BULK FLEET – AGE BREAKDOWN

  16. LNG DEMAND

  17. LNG MARKET: SPOT RATE VARIATION • ? Earthquake in Japan • Source BRS

  18. FLEET: LNG

  19. Bureau Veritas Information

  20. Class fleet : 9,493 ships, 76.46 m gt Newbuilding orderbook : 28.82 m gt New orders : 9.53 m gt Marine turnover : € 313.5 m BV Marine key figures 26 October 2011 The year 2010 • Class fleet : • 9,817 ships, 84.3 m gt • Newbuilding orderbook : • 2000 ships, 23.35 m gt • New orders : • 5.75 m gt

  21. The BV Active Fleet evolution (grt) BV fleet 26 10 20119,817 ships for 84.3 m gt

  22. The BV fleet per ship type (grt) Cargo 8,6 % Other 8,6 % Passenger 4,9 % Bulker 36,6 % Container 13,5 % Gas 8,1 % Tanker 19,6 %

  23. Newbuilding Order Book Evolution (grt) 26 10 2011 Total order book : 2,000 ships

  24. Newbuilding order book by ship type (gt) The 20,000 dwt oil/chemical tanker Icdas-11 built by ICDAS CELIK ENERJI TERSANE ULASIM SAN for MARDENIZ SHIPPING MANAGEMENT Container 7 % Gas 2,7% Passenger 3,2 % Other 4,6 % Tanker 23,2 % Cargo 5,5 % Bulker 52 %

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