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Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings

Learn about the capabilities and limitations of the tsunami warning system in the Caribbean. Topics include speed, accuracy, reliability, and effectiveness. Improve the system through knowledge and collaboration.

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Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings

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  1. Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad TWC Operations for the Caribbean Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA

  2. Why do you need to know about tsunami warning operations for the Caribbean? • To better understand the capabilities and limitations of the system • Speed of system • Accuracy of system • Reliability of system • Effectiveness of system • To have and to promote expectations accordingly • To work to improve the system

  3. Some Key Definitions • Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP) Center responsible for issuing timely tsunami threat guidance to other countries based on their own analysis. PTWC currently acting as the RTWP for the Caribbean • National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) Center responsible for issuing tsunami warnings to a country. Capabilities can range from acting only on RTWP messages to having full analysis capabilities. • National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) 24x7 office designated by a country to receive and act on messages from the RTWP. Usually it is the NTWC. • ICG Tsunami National Contact (TNC) A person designated by a country as the contact point for ICG-related matters on tsunami warning and mitigation.

  4. PTWC Key Operational Activities • Seismic Detection and Analysis Rapidly detect large earthquakes, determine their origin time, location, depth and magnitude, and otherwise evaluate their tsunami generation potential. • Sea Level Monitoring and Measuring Monitor sea level data to detect, measure and evaluate tsunami waves. • Decision-making Utilize all available data and decision-making tools such as forecast models to determine if a tsunami threat exists, the extent of the threat, and when the threat is ended. • Message Creation and Dissemination Create messages appropriate to the situation and disseminate them to the area of responsibility.

  5. Current PTWC Network of Seismic Stations (from GSN & USNSN & Other Contributing Networks)

  6. SDDR TGUH BBGH

  7. Bahamas Turks and Caicos Is. Mexico Cayman Is. Puerto Rico Haiti Dom. Rep Jamaica Belize Guadeloupe Honduras Dominica Aves Is. Guatemala Martinique Nicaragua St. Lucia El Salvador St. Vincent San Andres Is. Grenada Barbados Tobago Trinidad Costa Rica Panama Cocos Is Colombia Proposed GSN Stations Various Existing local BB Stations Proposed USAID/GOTT/UWI Sub-Net Network Proposed at RSNO Workshop Proposed Dutch Antillean Sub-Net Proposed Cayman Sub-Net Existing GSN Stations

  8. U.S. National Ocean Service Coastal Sea Level Gauges

  9. Current Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico DARTs

  10. NOS Sea Level Gauges (1-min samples, 6-min transmissions)

  11. Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

  12. Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

  13. Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

  14. Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

  15. Caribbean Tsunami Scenario

  16. CRITERIA FOR CARTWS PRODUCTS

  17. Information Bulletin Mw = 6.5-7.5 Fixed 1000km Regional Warning Mw = 7.6-7.8 Expanding 3+3 hour Regional Warning/Watch Mw > 7.8 150 Events ---------------- 20 Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 100 Events ---------------- 30 Destructive Local or Regional Tsunamis 8 Tele- Tsunamis Cumulative Events per Century  Mw Value 2500 Events ---------------- 23 Destructive Local Tsunamis Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog Moment Magnitude, Mw

  18. WMO/GTS AND AWIPS IDs FOR CARTWS PRODUCTS

  19. PTWC Timeline for a Caribbean Event

  20. Speed of System • Initial Warnings • Effective if you are at least 30 minutes away • Faster where denser seismic network available • Tsunami Confirmation • At least 30-60 minutes except near Puerto Rico

  21. Accuracy of System • Seismic Parameters • Location, Depth and Magnitude sufficient (but there is a trade-off with timeliness) • Tsunami Evaluation / Forecast • Very limited capabilities due to limited sea level data and forecast model guidance • Result: Likelihood of Over-Warning

  22. Reliability of System • PTWC Reliability • Many levels of backup to maintain constant 24x7 operations • NTWC Reliability (Developing) • Communication tests and drills to exercise and improve • End-to-End Reliability (Developing) • For local tsunami, communications may be damaged.

  23. Effectiveness of System • An Unknown at this Early Stage • Message products from TWCs need to be understood and lead to appropriate actions • Communications systems are needed to quickly alert those at risk • Exercises are needed to test and improve system • Educational programs are needed for public and decision-makers • All stakeholders need to be involved

  24. Thank You

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