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Expert Forecasting Approaches for Severe Weather and Climate Change

Learn about the expertise and honest broker role of NSSL in hazardous weather forecasts and climate change reports. Discover ingredients-based forecasting, severe storm estimation, and observations from past and future climate models.

joan-mcdonald
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Expert Forecasting Approaches for Severe Weather and Climate Change

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  1. Harold E. Brooks Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Severe Weather and Climate Change

  2. Currently, ~$10B damage in US annually

  3. Can’t say anything about observed changes Can’t say much about future changes

  4. Reports

  5. Why NSSL? • Expertise developing… • report-based climatologies • ingredients-based approaches to forecasting • Honest broker

  6. Apply Forecasting Approach • Look for ingredients in environments • Difficult to observe all ingredients Mid-to-high level flow Low-level flow

  7. Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate

  8. Observed Severe Storms Locations

  9. Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate

  10. Ingredients Reports

  11. Severe Storms from Climate Model 1980-1999 What about initiation? 2080-2099

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