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Transportation Systems Analysis Model And Very Light Jet Demand

Transportation Systems Analysis Model And Very Light Jet Demand. -Automobiles -Commercial Air -New Mode or Vehicle. Airports IPT - JPDO November 15, 2005. Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM). Antonio Trani (540-231-4418) Hojong Baik Nick Hinze Senanu Ashiabor Howard Swingle

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Transportation Systems Analysis Model And Very Light Jet Demand

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  1. Transportation Systems Analysis Model And Very Light Jet Demand -Automobiles -Commercial Air -New Mode or Vehicle Airports IPT - JPDO November 15, 2005

  2. Transportation Systems Analysis Model(TSAM) Antonio Trani (540-231-4418) Hojong Baik Nick HinzeSenanu Ashiabor Howard Swingle Anand Seshadri Krishna MurthyVirginia Tech University Sam DollyhighJohn CalleryJeremy SmithSwales Aerospace Jeff Viken (757-864-2875) j.k.viken@larc.nasa.gov Stuart Cooke NASA Langley Research Center

  3. Attributes of the Transportation Systems Analysis Model • Computes national demand for long distance travel • Aggregates demand from 3,091 county level projections • Socio-economic based (5 different income levels) • Models preferences for purpose of travel: Personal or Business • Models all legs of trip from doorstep to doorstep • Future projections can be made to 2025 • Multi-modal in scope • Uses accepted transportation analysis methods • Aerospace technology sensitive (demand related to trip cost and time) • Demand can be based upon supply/capacity relationships • Demand studies an be applied to full range of NASA and FAA aviation projects • Systems studies can be made to model a complete national transportation system (Commercial Airlines in the NAS, SATS)

  4. Premise that Defines Importance of TSAM to Users Gains in capacity in the NAS and mobility to the traveler are credible only if: Demand is predicted correctly…. • Numbers of travelers • Location of travelers • Trip cost • Total trip time • Safety, perceptions, etc TSAM models travel statistics from: • population • income • purpose at the county level, and not from a regression of trend variables

  5. Transportation Systems Analysis Model Aerospace Technology

  6. Trip Demand Generation Given: Socio-economic characteristics for each county (for all states) Predict: a) Number of trips produced per household/year for various income levels b) Trip attractiveness to a county Use: Trip rate tables

  7. Household Income Changes (2000-2025) Woods and Poole Data Implemented in the Transportation Systems Analysis Model

  8. Changes in the U.S. Population (Years 2000 to 2025) Woods and Poole Demographic Data Implemented in the Transportation Systems Analysis Model

  9. Trip Distribution Analysis Given: Trips produced from and attracted to each county Predict: a) Number of person-trips from each origin to every destination (county to county) Use: Gravity Model

  10. Trip Distribution (From)

  11. Trip Distribution (To)

  12. Selecting a Mode of Travel New or Improved Mode Auto Commercial Aviation • Factors considered in selecting a mode: • Travel time • Travel cost • Value of time • Route convenience • Trip type • Reliability of service • Frequency of service Route1 Route2... Route n Includes Airport Choice

  13. Multiple Route Mode Choice

  14. Mode Choice - Auto

  15. Mode Choice – Commercial Air

  16. Mode Choice – SATS / Very Light Jets

  17. Airport Demand - Commercial

  18. Airport Demand - SATS / Very Light Jets

  19. Description of the Very Light Jet Aircraft • Pressurized aircraft • Four revenue seats • 365 mph cruise speed • Certified to fly into known icing conditions • 1,100 nm range • Cost per passenger-mile ($1.75 nominal based on life-cycle cost analysis) • 3415 public airports (> 3,000 ft. paved runways) • Low Landing Minima capability provided to all airports using SATS LLM hardware (WAAS-aided) • Airport Design Group = A-I • Wake Vortex Classification = Small

  20. 4,800 Very Light Jets in Service by 2016 On-demand Cost Model (@ 1.75 passenger-mile) using VLJ Aircraft

  21. VLJ Traffic in 2014 with OEP Airports

  22. VLJ Traffic in 2025 with OEP Airports

  23. Spatial Distribution of VLJ Operations (2014)

  24. Top 30 Airports (2014)with OEP Airports

  25. Top 30 Airports (2014)No OEP Airports

  26. Top 30 Airports (2025)with OEP Airports

  27. Top 30 Airports (2025)No OEP Airports

  28. Top 30 Airports (2014)No OEP Airports

  29. Top 30 Airports (2014)With OEP Airports

  30. Top 30 Airports (2025)No OEP Airports 2025

  31. Top 30 Airports (2025)With OEP Airports 2025

  32. Impact of VLJ Operations at Non-Towered Airports

  33. 2014 VLJ Air-Taxi NAS Impacts

  34. NAS Daily Flights Baseline NAS: 2004 ETMS Projections: 2014 - NAS Flights + VLJ 2025 - NAS Flights + VLJ 127,421 2.21 97,969 1.70 57,628 1.76 1.38

  35. Historical Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) • Years 1981 to 2000 • Enplanements - 142% increase • Air Carrier Itinerant Operations - 57% increase • GA Itinerant Operations - 5% decrease ! • Total Itinerant Operations - 18.6% increase Note: GA and Total Itinerant Operations include GA VFR flights

  36. FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) • TAF reports Itinerant Operations in 4 categories • Air Carrier • Air-Taxi and Commuter • Military • General Aviation • Air Carrier and Air-Taxi/Commuter are the major drivers of Operations in NAS and OEP airports • General Aviation operations are approximately 2/3 VFR flights

  37. Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Note the different growth ratios between demand and operations 2014

  38. Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF)Base Year 2004 Note: Data past 2020 taken from 2019-2020 growth rate Total Itinerant Ops includes GA VFR flights FAA predicts average aircraft size to increase which does not reflect recent growth in Regional Jet flights

  39. Projected Travel GrowthFAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Airport enplanement and operations growth highly dependent on the airport set examined Growth From 2004 to 2014

  40. Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) Demand • TSAM can make future projections (to 2030) for the following: • Commercial airline demand and operations • Legacy General Aviation operations • SATS / VLJ / Air-Taxi both demand and operations (Emergent travel mode) • International Commercial Airline demand and operations (currently in development) • Cargo demand and operations (proposed future development)

  41. TSAM comparison with Domestic Enplanement Data 2004 TSAM: Business trips 86.7M Personal trips: 154.0M Total Commercial Airline Trips: 240.7M How does this relate to enplanements? Assumption: ~36% of trips have connection Each person trip has 2 trips - Depart and Return TSAM Commercial Enplanements: 654.7M ATA/FAA Reported Enplanements: 635.5M (3% difference)

  42. TSAM Commercial Airline Demand Projections • Relative to base year 2004 YearGrowth Ratio • 1.4 • 1.6 • 2.0 • 3.0* * Based on growth rate 2024 to 2025

  43. FAA Fare Yield Projections TSAM Demand is a Function of Ticket Cost to Traveler FAA Aerospace Forecasts, 2005-2016, Table 14, Air Carrier Fare Yields

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