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Labor Market Conditions. Prepared for Governor’s Council on Tax Reform September 2019. For more information, contact: Julie Menghini Director of Communications 401 S.W. Topeka Blvd Topeka, KS 66603 Phone: 785-581-7307 Fax: 785-296-0753. Payroll Survey Data. Jobs, Hours, and Wages
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Labor Market Conditions Prepared for Governor’s Council on Tax Reform September 2019 • For more information, contact: • Julie Menghini • Director of Communications • 401 S.W. Topeka Blvd • Topeka, KS 66603 • Phone: 785-581-7307 • Fax: 785-296-0753
Payroll Survey Data Jobs, Hours, and Wages Current Employment Statistics (CES Program)
Survey of Employers – how many people are on the payroll? • Concepts: • A job is a person on payroll who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. • Not included: self employed, volunteer, family worker (not paid), farm worker, military. Current Employment Statistics (CES)
August 2019 highlights: • Kansas gained 7,900 jobs over the month (a monthly average of +4,100 jobs over the last 3 months). Over the past 12 months, the number of nonfarm jobs increased by a total of 15,500 jobs. Estimates are seasonally adjusted. • The private sector added 4,200 jobs over the month, or 0.4%. The largest increases were in Leisure and Hospitality (+1,700) and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (+1,400). Over the past 12 months, the private sector gained 17,800 jobs. Estimates are seasonally adjusted. • Average weekly hours worked in the private sector remains at 34.4 hours, no change from last August. Average nominal hourly earnings increased by $1.41 to $25.39 (+5.9%). Average nominal weekly earnings increased by $48.51 (+5.9%) over the past 12 months. Estimates are not seasonally adjusted. INDUSTRY DATACurrent Employment Statistics (CES)
Household Survey Data Labor Force and Unemployment Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS)
August 2019 highlights (all data is seasonally adjusted): • The labor force increased by a net of 1,491 individuals to a total of 1,480,339 participants over the month. • Employment increased by a net of 2,496 individuals to 1,432,598 over the month. • The pool of the unemployed decreased by a net of 1,005 individuals to 47,741 over the month. • The unemployment rate decreased from 3.3% in July to 3.2% in August. HOUSEHOLD DATALocal Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
Unemployment Insurance Data UI Claimants, Average Duration of Benefits Kansas Department of Labor Administrative Data
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMSEstimates are not seasonally adjusted • August 2019 highlights: • Over the year, initial claims increased by 319 and continued claims decreased by 3,127 claims (these numbers include all programs). • The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance benefits decreased by 549 over the month, and decreased by 940 from August 2018. • The average duration of benefit receipt is 11.3 weeks, a decrease of 0.1 weeks from last month and no change over the past 12 months (average duration is measured with a 12 month moving average).
Business Cycle Indicators Federal Reserve Statement September 18th 2019: In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.
Business Cycle Indicators • OMAHA, Neb. (Sept. 3, 2019) – The August Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, fell below growth neutral for the first time since November 2016. • Lower Export Orders and hiring pushed index into negative territory • Business confidence slumped to 35-month low. • Approximately 44% of supply managers indicated that tariffs and trading issues were the greatest economic challenge for their company in the next 12 months.
Business Cycle Indicators • Federal Reserve Board: Beige Book(Sept. 4th 2019) • Factory production and shipments edged down compared to the previous survey period at both durable and non-durable goods plants, while new orders declined slightly. Manufacturers anticipated modest increases in production, shipments and new orders in the coming months. Capital spending was modestly above year-ago levels, and slight increases were expected in the months ahead. However, a majority of respondents expected the most recent round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to negatively affect their businesses.
Business Cycle Indicators • Awh US and KS
Business Cycle Indicators • Total production hours US manf