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FAA/AST Suborbital Market Study Overview – Insights and Future Directions

The FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) aims to foster a vibrant suborbital launch industry. Through an upcoming Suborbital Space Transportation Market Analysis, slated for completion in October 2004, AST will assess market potentials for suborbital vehicles over the next decade. The study will build upon previous analyses and gather input from the COMSTAC RLV Working Group, addressing manned and unmanned markets, existing hurdles, and environmental considerations, ultimately guiding stakeholders in commercial space endeavors.

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FAA/AST Suborbital Market Study Overview – Insights and Future Directions

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  1. Overview FAA/AST Suborbital Market Study May 19, 2004 Paula Trimble Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation

  2. Overview • FAA/AST promotes the development of a vibrant launch industry through a variety of activities, including providing fair and balanced information about commercial space transportation markets. • AST plans to conduct a Suborbital Space Transportation Market Analysis to be completed in October 2004. • Comments, input, and suggestions from the COMSTAC RLV Working Group are encouraged and desired.

  3. Objectives • Provide an updated assessment of the markets for suborbital vehicles in the next 10 years • Provide updates on the development of U.S. suborbital launch vehicles

  4. Background • In 2002, Department of Commerce Office of Space Commercialization released report “Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicles and Applicable Markets” • Highlighted current suborbital markets: • National Missile Defense Tests • Sounding Rocket Research Activities • Described Emerging Suborbital Markets: • Military Surveillance • Commercial/Civil Earth Imagery • Media, Advertising, and Sponsorship • Space Tourism

  5. FAA/AST Study Outline • History of suborbital spaceflight • Year in Review of suborbital activity • Vehicle-by-vehicle update/assessment • Markets • Immediate – Next 10 years • Markets addressed in DOC Report • Other markets TBD (Input from RLV WG needed) • Spaceports • Summary of FAA Regulations • Non-technical hurdles • Insurance • Other

  6. Existing Data Points • Environmental report for Mojave Airport site license states number of anticipated launches for two launch vehicle concepts • Concept A vehicles: Maximum of 6 launches per year from 2004-2008 (30 total) • Concept B vehicles: No launches in 2004, 10 launches in 2005, 25 launches in 2006, 30 launches in 2007, 50 launches in 2008 (115 total) • Similar data is expected from the environmental assessment for the proposed Oklahoma launch site • Forecast for suborbital sounding rockets

  7. Questions for RLV Working Group • Should FAA/AST study address both manned and unmanned markets for suborbital launch vehicles? • DARPA/AF RASCAL and FALCON • Microsatellites and university-class payloads • Homeland Security • What additional market analysis would be useful?

  8. Follow-up • Final report anticipated for October COMSTAC • AST would like interim review of report by RLV Working Group this summer • Provide input to: • Paula Trimble, AST-100, 202-493-4468 • Paula.trimble@faa.gov • John Sloan, AST-100, 202-267-7989 • John.sloan@faa.gov

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