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Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe (a growing supply imbalance)

Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe (a growing supply imbalance) J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hannover, Germany IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002 Definitions . Reserves

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Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe (a growing supply imbalance)

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  1. Depletion of the North Sea and its Significance for Western Europe (a growing supply imbalance) J. Peter Gerling & Hilmar Rempel Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hannover, Germany IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  2. Definitions . Reserves • hydrocarbon quantities proven in fields • can be produced economically with current technologies Resources • geologically identified hydrocarbons • which can’t be economically produced under present conditions • unidentified but expected hydrocarbons • due to geological reasons in equivalent regions (yet to find) Hereby we consider for resources as well as for reserves the recoverable amount IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  3. Basic data Area : 575.000 km2 Surrounding countries : UK, NO, DK, GE Water depth : avg. 70 m, max. 725 m HC provinces : Northern North Sea (Oil + G) Central North Sea (Oil + C + G) Southern North Sea (Gas) NOT included : Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea Atlantic margin IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  4. Production history : Oil 1st discovery : 1969 (Ekofisk) Peak discovery : 1974 1st production : 1971 Peak production : 2000 Cum. production : 4.6 Gt (end of 2001) Reserves : 3.1 Gt Resources : 2.0 Gt IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  5. North Sea Oil Production Mt 350 UK Bild Production history Norway 300 Netherlands Germany 250 Denmark 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  6. North Sea Cumulative Production and Reserves Gt 10 8 6 4 Reserves 2 Cumulative Production 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  7. North Sea Cumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio years Gt 10 50 8 40 R/P 30 6 Reserves 4 20 2 10 Cumulative Production 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  8. 6 Gt 2 % Gt production until 2026 with an annual decrease of 100% 10 4 % Resources 4 6 % 2 Gt 2 Reserves 3 Gt 50 % depletion mid-point 5 0 31.12.2001 Produced - 2 5 Gt - 4 0% 0 - 6 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  9. North Sea Production Profile and Giant Fields 350 1050 forecast 300 900 Depletion rate after 2001: 8.5 % 250 750 Reserve additions: 2002 - 2010: 100 Mt/a 2011 - 2025: 50 Mt/a 200 600 Giant Field Discovery in Mt Production Mt/a 150 450 100 300 50 150 0 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  10. North Sea Oil Consumption of Western Europe and EU Mt 1000 900 Consumption EU Consumption WE 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  11. North Sea Oil Consumption of Western Europe and EU North Sea's Share to their Oil Supply (%) Mt 50 1000 Share EU 900 Share WE 40 Consumption EU 800 Consumption WE 700 30 600 500 20 400 300 10 200 100 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  12. oil  gas IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  13. Production history : Natural Gas 1st discovery : 1965 (West Sole) Peak discovery : 1979 1st production : 1967 Peak production : 2005 ?? Cum. production : 3.0 T.m3 (end of 2001) Reserves : 4.6 T.m3 Resources : 1.7 T.m3 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  14. North Sea Natural Gas Production G.m³ 250 UK Bild Production history Norway 200 Netherland Germany Denmark 150 100 50 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  15. North Sea Cumulative Production and Reserves T.m³ 8 6 4 Reserves 2 Cumulative Production 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  16. North Sea Cumulative Production, Reserves and R/P-Ratio years T.m³ 80 8 60 6 R/P 40 4 Reserves 20 2 Cumulative Production 0 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  17. 8 T.m³ 2 % T.m³ production until 2026 with an annual increase of 100% 9.3 6 Resources 0 % 1.7 T.m³ -2 % 4 - 4 % - 6 % Reserves 2 4.6 T.m³ 50 % depletion mid-point 4.65 0 31.12.2001 Produced 3.0 T.m³ - 2 0% 0 - 4 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  18. North Sea Natural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU G.m³ 600 Consumption EU 500 Consumption WE 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  19. North Sea Natural Gas Consumption of Western Europe and EU North Sea's Share to their Gas Supply (%) G.m³ 600 60 Share EU Share WE 500 50 Consumption EU Consumption WE 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  20. > 1 - 10 Gt Strategic Ellipse > 10 - 20 Gt containing ca. 70 % of world oil reserves > 20 Gt Countries with oil reserves > 1 Gt IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  21. Countries with natural gas reserves > 1 T.m³ > 1 - 5 T.m³ Strategic Ellipse > 5 - 10 T.m³ containing ca. 70 % of world oil reserves > 20 T.m³ IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  22. Reserves Cum. Production Resources 7,947 The Mediterranean -EUR of crude oil and NGL in Mt (Only countries with EUR > 200 Mt) ... Ukraine Moldova A u s t r i a Switzerland R u s s i a Hungary F r a n c e Slovenia Romania Croatia Geor- Bosnia gia Yugos- Herzogo- 323 lavia vina S p a i n Bulgaria Portugal I t a l y Albania Mace- donia T u r k e y Greece Syria 221 S y r i a 1,302 M o r o c c o 544 Leba- non Israel Jordan A l g e r i a T u n e s i a 5,159 2,410 Saudi L i b y a Arabia A l g e r i a E g y p t L i b y a (database: end 2000) IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  23. Reserves Cum. Production Resources 7,161 The Mediterranean - EUR of natural gas in Gm³ (Only countries with EUR > 200 Gm³) F r a n c e Ukraine Moldova Reserves Switzerland A u s t r i a R u s s i a Hungary Cum. 729 Slovenia Romania Production Croatia Geor- Bosnia Resources gia 1,334 Herzogo- Yugos- vina lavia S p a i n Bulgaria Portugal Albania Mace- donia I t a l y Syria T u r k e y Greece Syria A l g e r i a 483 394 M a r o c c o Leba- non Israel Jordan T u n e s i a 2,428 Saudi 2,065 Arabia L i b y a E g y p t (database: end 2000) IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  24. Moscow R U S S I AN from W-Siberia Western Europe F E D E R A T I O N DRUZHBA SE-Europe Turkey SOYUS S Ü D L. U R A L U K R A I N E ASOVS SEA ASTANA K A Z A K H S T A N CPC C China Japan - Sea h s a BLACK a h k l a B SEA u c GEORGIA Aral a Ceyhan (Mediter.Sea) CASPIAN L o w e r C a u c a s u s Sea China Japan s K y ARMENIA u s TIFLIS y T U R K E Y N l Issyk- K ul BISCHKEK k A u s BAKU U Z B E K I S T A N m KIRGISISTAN H LEGEND AZER- C T S I BAIJAN E N TASHKENT ERIEWAN TURKMENISTAN Boundaries K TPP Capitals a r a k Oil refineries SEA u Turkey (Mediterranean Sea) m Gas processing plants H i g h l a n d o f I r a n P A M I R K o Terminals TAJIKISTAN p e Oil pipelines t d a g DUSHANBE E ASHGABAD l Gas pipelines b u s r Persian Gulf Z a g r o s Oil pipeline projects INDIEN Gas pipeline projects S H U I R A N K I R A Q TEHERAN Oil fields U D AFGHANISTAN Gas fields N Persian Gulf I KABUL Pakistan Pakistan Gas-condensate fields H 0 500 km PAKISTAN Pipeline-Network with Destinations and Refineries IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  25. Conclusions - Oil • North Sea is a mature oil province • peak production occurred in 2001 • reserves underestimated ? • annual production decline will be > 5 % • accordingly, western Europe‘s oil import dependance will increase IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  26. Conclusions - Natural Gas • North Sea is a mature gas province • annual production is still increasing • peak production in front - 2005 ? • production can be kept stable for another • 1 – 2 decades • But: due to the increase in demand, western Europe‘s import dependance will rise IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  27. Conclusions - External Supplies • Russia (gas / oil) • Northern Africa (gas / oil) • Middle East (oil / gas?) • Caspian (oil / gas?) • Western Africa (oil) IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  28. IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  29. 55 16 57 23 33 33 Reserven 146 Ressourcen Kum. Förderung Stand:31.12.2001 Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdöl 363 Mrd. t IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  30. Gesamtpotential konventionelles Erdgas 425 Bill. m³ 164 24 65 91 38 33 18 Reserven Kum. Förderung Ressourcen Stand: 31.12.2001 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  31. North Sea % Share of world 20 Oil Natural gas 16 12 8 4 0 Reserves Reserves Production Production Resources Resources Consumption Consumption Consumption Consumption W-Europe W-Europe IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

  32. German oil production 1930 - 2050 Mt/y 10 6 EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) 320 Mt (10 ) 1968 11 y 14 y produced as per 31.12.2000 255 Mt 8 17 y 1962 20 y remaining: reserves 50 Mt "yet to find" 15 Mt 12 y 14 y 6 1975 on the basis of data from 305 oilfields EOR effective depletion mid-point 4 5y 16 y 2000 at 2050: remaining c. 4 Mt production c. 0.2 Mt 2 1950 34 y 2217 0 cum. prod. up to 1930: c. 2 Mt 1930 1950 2000 2050 remaining produced time 65 Mt 255 Mt 2000 static lifetime of reserves reserves production "yet to find" 1950: post war boom 38 Mt 1.1 Mt 34 yrs. 233 yrs. 1962: max. reserves 113 6.8 17 20 1968: max. production 89 8.3 11 14 1975: depletion mid-point 72 5.8 12 14 2000: current status 50 3.1 16 5 "yet to find" figures on the basis of current EUR Supplemented after HILLER 1997 IWOOD2002 - Uppsala, 24.05.2002

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