1 / 13

World Economic Outlook April 2009

World Economic Outlook April 2009. Chapter III From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?. Prepared by: Prakash Kannan, Alasdair Scott and Marco Terrones with support from Gavin Asdorian and Emory Oakes. Questions.

jorden-cortez
Télécharger la présentation

World Economic Outlook April 2009

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. World Economic Outlook April 2009

  2. Chapter IIIFrom Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? Prepared by: Prakash Kannan, Alasdair Scott and Marco Terrones with support from Gavin Asdorian and Emory Oakes

  3. Questions • Are recessions and recoveries associated with financial crises different from others? • What are the main features of globally synchronized recessions? • Can countercyclical policies help shorten recessions and strengthen recoveries?

  4. We Examine Business Cycles in 21 Advanced Economies … • Excluding the current recessions, there were 122 recessions since 1960. Of which: • 15 were associated with financial crises • 37 were globally synchronized (1975, 1980 and 1992). • 6 were both associated with financial crises and globally synchronized.

  5. Recessions and Recoveries are Longer when Global and associated w/ Financial Crises … Recessions Recoveries

  6. Mainly Reflecting Consumption Dynamics …(Median = 100 at t = 0; peak in output at t = 0) Highly Synchronized Recessions Financial Crises

  7. Which, in turn, Reflect House Prices Dynamics …(Median = 100 at t = 0; peak in output at t = 0) Highly Synchronized Recessions Financial Crises

  8. Exports Play Important Role in Recovery …(Median = 100 at t = 0; peak in output at t = 0) Highly Synchronized Recessions Financial Crises

  9. Policies Help Shorten Recessions … Fiscal Stimulus is Effective in Financial Crises … (Probability of remaining in a recession beyond a certain number of quarters)

  10. … Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Affected by Public Debt Levels …

  11. Current Recessions Likely to Be Severe … (Median log differences from one year earlier; peak in output level at t = 0; quarters on x-axis) Current U.S. recession 50 percent interval of previous recessions Unemployment Rate (median percentage point difference from one year earlier) Output Private Consumption Residential Investment

  12. … with Potentially Weak Recoveries …(Median log differences from one year earlier; peak in output level at t = 0; quarters on x-axis) Current U.S. recession 50 percent interval of previous recessions Credit House Prices Equity Prices Nominal Interest Rate (median percentage point difference from one year earlier) Government Consumption

  13. Policy Message • The current recessions are likely to be long lasting and severe with weak recoveries …. • Monetary and fiscal policies can help reduce the duration of the current recessions and strengthen economic recovery …

More Related