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2008 Was an Awful Year for the US Economy. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another View. Today's Storyline. Last year wasn't so bad in northern ColoradoUntil the past few months2009 is going to be roughBut the US recovery should begin by mid-summerPolicy makers: Plan for 3 years out, not just 3 months.
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4. Today’s Storyline Last year wasn’t so bad in northern Colorado
Until the past few months
2009 is going to be rough
But the US recovery should begin by mid-summer
Policy makers: Plan for 3 years out, not just 3 months
5. Things Looked Pretty Darn Good Locally Until Late Summer
6. Education and Government Continue to Add Jobs
7. Residential Construction Employment Down
8. It Could be Worse
9. Looking Ahead
10. 2009 Clouded by Uncertainty We are not immune to national problems
But our diversified economy and educated workforce will help us weather the storm
It’s not going to be painless
Unemployment will creep up
11. We Offered a Forecast in October…
12. Employment Growth Expected to Remain less than 2%: 4,000 New Jobs
13. Employment Growth Expected to Remain less than 2%: 4,000 New Jobs
14. Now We’re not So Sure
15. Regional Economic Outlook 2009 The unprecedented turmoil hampers our forecasting efforts, as our models don’t do a good job with human emotion
For 2009 we expect a difficult first 6 months, but the national outlook should improve by the end of the 3rd quarter
Northern Colorado, however, tends to lag the US
16. Regional Economic Outlook 2009 For the year, we forecast very little employment change from 2008
Health care and professional services remain bright spots
Retail and leisure slow substantially
Construction, real estate and finance will continue to struggle
Manufacturing is the wild card
17. Moving Forward
18. A Federal Government Driven Recovery Business and consumer pessimism will prolong the recession
Lower interest rates should (finally) help the housing market
And increased government spending can dampen the recessionary effects
Two primary challenges to Mr. Obama
Increase business investment
Restore consumer confidence
19. State and Local Implications There is great temptation to do something to spur jobs immediately
But we need to think long term as well and maintain investment in core strengths
Recommit to education
Continue to build the new energy economy
Maintain and repair infrastructure (FASTER)
Enhance state support for entrepreneurism