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2008 Presidential Elections: Candidates and Coalitions

2008 Presidential Elections: Candidates and Coalitions. Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College. Overview . Evolution of Dem Party What issues are challenging parties? How have issues and coalitions combined in the primaries? .

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2008 Presidential Elections: Candidates and Coalitions

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  1. 2008 Presidential Elections:Candidates and Coalitions Dan Nataf, Ph.D Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College

  2. Overview • Evolution of Dem Party • What issues are challenging parties? • How have issues and coalitions combined in the primaries?

  3. Evolution of Democratic Party • Early 21st Century • Challenge of appealing to parts of the legacy coalition (blue collar, low skilled, white males, Catholic, union members) • while also appealing to the ‘new economy’ groups • High tech, trade oriented, highly flexible/white collar workforce • Minorities, women, youth • Role of national identify – war, immigrants • 1960-1970s Transformation • Post-industrial economy changes social structure, union strength • Civil rights movement undercuts southern, white, rural, fundamentalist support • Culture war: Liberalism gets secular, tied to feminism, Affirmative Action, youth, counter-culture • Anti-war wing ascendant • Pre-1960s Democratic Party • Industrial economy • Residual anti-Republican southern support • Tied to traditional culture, nationalism

  4. Evolution of Democratic Party Contradictions of Emerging Democratic Coalition • Post-industrial Issues • International economy • Stimulating green jobs sectors • Protecting ‘quality of life’ • Getting next generation ready for new economy • Expanded tolerance for minorities, alternative lifestyles • Legacy Issues • NAFTA – free trade vs. job • retention • Labor market competition issues • Economic security – expansion of government services to deal with uncertain economy • Acknowledgement of traditional roles and culture

  5. How do history and current issues align? • Overview of main issues identified in exit polls • On Democratic side: • Economy • War in Iraq • Health care • America ready for a woman, African-American president? • Republican side • Terrorism • Immigration • Taxes • Cultural issues – abortion, gay marriage • Republicans ready for a ‘maverick’ candidate?

  6. Democratic Voters’ – Ideology by State

  7. Obama Vote by Ideology: States

  8. Obama Vote by Ideology: US, Texas, Ohio, Missouri

  9. Cand. Traits: Changes, Cares, Experience, Electability by State

  10. Candidate Traits: Change % Saying “change’ by candidate

  11. Voters in the Mood for Change % Saying “change’ by candidate – Nation, Texas, Ohio, Missouri

  12. Democrats: Most Important Issues

  13. Republicans: Most Important Issues

  14. Contrast Democrats and Republicans: Most Important Issues – the Economy

  15. Democratic Issues - Economy

  16. Democratic Issues – Health Care

  17. Democratic Issues - Iraq

  18. Republican Issues: Immigration Options

  19. Republican Issues: Keep Abortion Legal

  20. Party and Demographics:Obama Vote by Dem/Independent

  21. Electoral Coalitions: Obama/Clinton

  22. Demographics - Age: Obama-Clinton

  23. Race and Obama Support byBlack Vote as % of Total Vote

  24. Latinos and Obama Vote byLatino Vote as % of Total Vote

  25. Electoral Dynamics: Expected vs. Actual Obama Vote in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin

  26. Expected vs. Actual Obama Vote in Ohio and Texas

  27. Democratic Electoral Results by Primary Type

  28. Electoral Results by Primary Timing Nevada (C+5) New Hampshire (C+3)Iowa (O+8) South Caro. (O+28) Arizona (C+9) Arkansas (C+42) Calif (C+10) Mass (C+15) New Jersey (C+10) New Mxo (C+2) NY (C+17) Oklahoma (C+24) Tenn (C+13) Alabama (O+14) Alaska (O+50) Colo (O+35) Idaho (O+63) Illinois (O+31) Kansas (O+48) Minn (O+35) Missouri (O+1) No. Dakota (O+24 Utah (O+18) Ohio (C+10) RI (C+18) Texas (C+3) Dist. Col. (O+51) Louisiana (O+21) Maine (O+19) Maryland (O+23) Nebraska (O+36) Vermont (O+22) Virginia (O+29) Washington (O+36) Wisconsin (O+17)

  29. Conclusion • Civil rights movement – heightens saliency of race • Clear impact on South voting patterns • But Obama’s strong performance in ‘white’ states implies ‘post-racial’ tendencies • 2. Industrial change – heightens saliency of zero-sum struggle among those adversely affected – • Clinton ‘blue collar, lower income, lower education’ appeal – reinforces idea of race/class contrast • 3. Culture war – saliency of search for socio-economic security with identity politics’ • Major issues focus on socio-economic security on Democratic side • Polarization between Latinos, whites and blacks portends continuing challenges in uniting coalition • Immigration: mostly a Republican issue, will that draw Reagan Democrats to Republicans? • Race and gender clearly signal scope of change in Dem • party

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