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Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace

Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace. I. Historical Foundations of the Bangsamoro Struggle. Bangsamoro ("the Moro People") 13-ethnolinguistic Muslim tribes in the Philippines Comprising about 5% of the Philippine population and around 20% of the population in Mindanao.

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Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace

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  1. Mindanao and the Bangsamoro: Prospects for Peace

  2. I. Historical Foundations of the Bangsamoro Struggle • Bangsamoro ("the Moro People") • 13-ethnolinguistic Muslim tribes in the Philippines • Comprising about 5% of the Philippine population and around 20% of the population in Mindanao.

  3. WHO ARE THE MUSLIMS IN THE PHILIPPINES? • consist of 13 ethno-linguistic groups • distributed according to their respective geographical locations. The first three are the largest groups. • Maranao - Lanao del Sur • Maguindanao - Maguindanao Province and Cotabato • Tausug - Sulu • Sama • Yakan • Sangil • Palawani • Molbog • The number of Balik-Islam (reverts to Islam) is a surging phenomenon in the Phiilippines. • Kolibugan • Jama Mapun • Iranun • Ka’agan • Badjao

  4. I. Historical Foundations

  5. SECTOR 1918 % 1970 % 1980 % 2000 % Christians 159,132 22% 6.1 million 75% 7.1 million 65% 72% Muslims 358,968 49 1.5 million 20 2.5 million 23 20 Lumads 205,555 29 1.2 million 5 1.2 million 12 N/A TOTAL 723,625 100% 8.1 million 100% 10.9 million 100% --- Were the Muslims always a minority in Mindanao? Official Data as quoted from Tan, S. K., 1995, NCSO 2000 census

  6. PROVINCE 1970 % Rank 1990 % Rank Lanao del Norte 19.7 27 19.3 21 Sulu 15.5 37 11.0 52 Lanao del Sur 19.6 28 11.2 53 Bataan 15.4 38 31.1 11 Pampanga 13.3 39 27.5 15 Were the Muslims always poor? NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH PIPED WATER, 1970/1990

  7. 1970 1990 PROVINCE % Rank % Rank Zamboanga del Sur 10 28 40.2 37 Sulu 6.7 38 9.4 73 Ilocos Sur 4.5 50 61.8 13 Bukidnon 4.4 51 31.5 48 Lanao del Sur 3.7 58 34.9 43 Camiguin 3.1 59 26.4 57

  8. Factors that led to decline

  9. Elements of the Radicalization of the Bangsamoro

  10. 95.14 91.97 88.12 85.99 80.5 75.36 Visayas Mindanao Luzon Simple & functional literacy rate • 88% can read and write • 75% are functionally literate • Simple Literacy Rate Functional Literacy Rate Sources: MCW & NCRFW

  11. Life Expectancy, 2000 Mindanao has the shortest life expectancy 66.7 65.5 63 Luzon Visayas Mindanao Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person can expect to live, based on the age-specific death rates for a given year.

  12. Child Labor as a way of dealing with poverty in Mindanao 7 out of 10 Mindanao households have working children within 5-17 years old, surpassing the national average of 6 out of 10. (Oct 2001) The phenomenon of child labor and child prostitution points to the problem of extreme poverty Despite laws against child labor, many children have remained in the labor market. Sources: MCW & NCRFW

  13. II. Liberation Movements

  14. II. Liberation Movements

  15. II. The MNLF Peace Track • 1976 Tripoli Agreement under Marcos regime: autonomy in lieu of independence • Congress passed Republic Act No. 6734, (Organic Act) under the Aquino administration • Plebiscite held on August 1, 1989 in 13 provinces: only Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi joined ARMM • Final Peace Agreement between GRP and MNLF signed on September 2, 1996 under the Ramos administration • RA9054 passed amending RA 6734 • Plebiscite in August 2001: Basilan and Marawi City joined ARMM

  16. II. STATUS: MNLF Peace Track • Problematic implementation of 1996 FPA. • MNLF Chair Misuari was arrested 2001 on charges of rebellion. Allowed to post bail after 7 years of incarceration. • MNLF troops loyal to Misuari went back to the hills • Tripartite review of implementation ongoing

  17. Failing Autonomy • The 1996 Peace Agreement has failed to deliver the “peace dividends”. • Instead of the promised autonomy, there is increased and heavy dependence of ARMM on the National Government

  18. 1997 2000 2003 Province HDI Province HDI Province HDI Sulu 0.336 Sulu 0.351 Sulu 0.31 Lanao del Sur 0.415 Tawi-Tawi 0.390 Maguindanao 0.36 Maguindanao 0.416 Basilan 0.425 Tawi-Tawi 0.36 Tawi-Tawi 0.430 Maguindanao 0.461 Basilan 0.41 Basilan 0.439 Ifugao 0.461 Masbate 0.44 Ifugao 0.452 Lanao del Sur 0.464 Zamboanga del Norte 0.45 Lanao del Norte 0.470 Agusan del Sur 0.482 Sarangani 0.45 Agusan del Sur 0.482 Samar 0.511 Western Samar 0.47 Samar 0.493 Lanao del Norte 0.512 Eastern Samar 0.47 Sarangani 0.494 Sarangani 0.516 Lanao del Sur 0.48 Human Development Index in ARMM: Lowest 10 provinces 2005 Philippine Human Development Report

  19. REGION 1997 2000 2003 % Rank % Rank % Rank NCR 8.50 15 11.50 15 7.30 15 5-Bicol 57.00 2 61.90 2 47.90 4 8-Eastern Visayas 48.50 6 51.10 6 43.40 6 9-Western Mindanao 45.50 7 53.00 7 49.40 2 10-Northern Mindanao 52.70 4 52.20 4 44.30 5 12-Central Mindanao 55.80 3 58.10 3 38.40 7 CARAGA --- --- --- CAR 50.10 5 43.80 5 31.20 9 ARMM 62.50 1 71.30 1 53.10 1 Poverty Incidence in ARMM 2005 Philippine Human Development Report

  20. Agreement on cessation of hostilities

  21. STATUS: GRP-MILF Peace Track

  22. Lack of information about the conflict Continuing armed conflict High Iliteracy rates and unemployment Abject Poverty Militarization Discrimination Poor delivery of government basic social service CHALLENGES

  23. Understanding the MOA-AD • Basic principle: There is no alternative solution to end the 35-year old Mindanao conflict but to address the very root of the Bangsamoro problem through a politically-negotiated settlement. • The MOA-AD is a document that is the product of more than 4 years of negotiations between the government and the MILF. • The prospective BJE would have fulfilled the Bangsamoro people’s struggle for self determination – begun by the MNLF and pushed to completion by the MILF.

  24. III. The Road Back to Peace • CEASEFIRE. Military strategies CANNOT resolve the Mindanao conflict. UN, EU, OIC, ASEAN assistance to bring parties back to negotiating table. • Peace process must include all stakeholders, including religious leaders like the Ulama as well as civil society. This will give the process the legitimacy and the critical political constituency it needs to succeed.

  25. The Road Back to Peace • Government must resolve, not just manage, the Mindanao conflict. It should not allow the peace process to be hijacked by political posturing and opportunism. • All parties must show sincerity and allow the peace negotiations to proceed.

  26. The Road Back to Peace • Genuine autonomy and lasting peace cannot be attained unless the central government divests itself of substantial powers and invest the same to local communities and allow them to chart their own destiny. • Federalism as an option after the 2010 elections

  27. SHUKRAN!

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