ILF: Interim Progress Report

1. ILF: Interim Progress Report Jess Kaizar, Hong Tran, Tariq Islam

2. Agenda Problem Statement Background and Assumptions Scenarios Technologies Cost Estimation Model Development Analysis Results WBS Status EVM Chart 2

3. Problem Statement This project will serve to provide a background study on past wars in terms of their fuel usage, and compare them to the metrics of modern day warfare. What is needed, and what will be answered here subsequently is that given various future warfare scenarios, how will helicopters be leveraged and used in those scenarios? The largest issue being fuel efficiency, the efficiency of helicopters from a tactical perspective as well as a design perspective will need to be applied to each of the future scenarios to provide feasibility guidance in the next 10 to 20 years of helicopter production by vendors, specifically Sikorsky. How will helicopters be leveraged and used in those scenarios? - This is one of Sikorsky's main questions - Considering the speculation involved in future warfare scenarios, what are the implications of... Fuel efficiency? - This is Sikorsky's main parameter - From this, all of our metrics will be derived and expanded upon - All decisions for future scenarios depend, rely, and affect fuel efficiency Tactical and Design perspectives - Both perspectives weigh heavily on fuel efficiency - These two perspectives will further define our metrics and parameters into our modelHow will helicopters be leveraged and used in those scenarios? - This is one of Sikorsky's main questions - Considering the speculation involved in future warfare scenarios, what are the implications of... Fuel efficiency? - This is Sikorsky's main parameter - From this, all of our metrics will be derived and expanded upon - All decisions for future scenarios depend, rely, and affect fuel efficiency Tactical and Design perspectives - Both perspectives weigh heavily on fuel efficiency - These two perspectives will further define our metrics and parameters into our model

4. Approach and Methodology Survey the use of energy in warfare throughout history and develop energy consumption metrics Identify a range of representative scenarios Primary missions Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force �Identify technologies for inspection and characterization �Conduct cost estimation of fuel�prices in 2021 and 2031 �Model Scenarios Analysis Vary fuel price Apply technologies Conduct excursions for potential�changes in�future warfare Provide insight and recommendation for the impact of fuel efficiencies and rotary aircraft The problem statement defines �what we are doing� and the technical approach outlines �how we going to do it�. The ILF team will conduct a survey and past and present warfare fuel consumption. This research will be used to inform and develop metrics to characterize fuel consumption and to establish a present day baseline for fuel consumption in a modern war such as Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Next the team will focus on identifying a representative range of baseline scenarios for rotary aircraft. The range will include each of the forces, the primary missions of helicopters in warfare and will be focused on at least a medium and heavy lift. Force variations on the Blackhawk will be used for the medium lift and CH-53D or E as the heavy lift. Missions include: Attack/Assault Intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) or Command and Control (C2) Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) Heavy cargo lift Combat search and rescue (CSAR) / Medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) The problem statement defines �what we are doing� and the technical approach outlines �how we going to do it�. The ILF team will conduct a survey and past and present warfare fuel consumption. This research will be used to inform and develop metrics to characterize fuel consumption and to establish a present day baseline for fuel consumption in a modern war such as Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Next the team will focus on identifying a representative range of baseline scenarios for rotary aircraft. The range will include each of the forces, the primary missions of helicopters in warfare and will be focused on at least a medium and heavy lift. Force variations on the Blackhawk will be used for the medium lift and CH-53D or E as the heavy lift. Missions include: Attack/Assault Intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) or Command and Control (C2) Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) Heavy cargo lift Combat search and rescue (CSAR) / Medical evacuation (MEDEVAC)

5. The ILF team will investigate alternate energies, the designs of hybrid engines and the overall designs of the rotary aircraft. Examples of these include air hybrid engines and coaxial rotary designs as used currently in the Sikorsky X2 prototype. Similarly, the changes in helicopter body and structural design will affect fuel consumption through aspects such as weight. Fuel prices can be expected to rise over the next 10 and 20 years. To accommodate this the team will conduct a cost estimation to project the cost of fuel in the 2021 and 2031 timeframe. �The point estimation will be used as the initial modeling input for fuel cost with the confidence interval to bound potential high and low fuel costs for comparison purposes. The team will then develop a model for fuel consumption in the identified scenarios. Key metrics and output will be verified. Baseline fuel consumption and prices ranges will be documented. The model will be used for analysis through the application of the identified technologies, parametric examination of energy efficiency, variation of fuel price, and excursions for potential evolutions in future warfare. This analysis combined with the background research will be used to provide insight and recommendations for the impact of fuel efficiencies in future warfare. The ILF team will investigate alternate energies, the designs of hybrid engines and the overall designs of the rotary aircraft. Examples of these include air hybrid engines and coaxial rotary designs as used currently in the Sikorsky X2 prototype. Similarly, the changes in helicopter body and structural design will affect fuel consumption through aspects such as weight. Fuel prices can be expected to rise over the next 10 and 20 years. To accommodate this the team will conduct a cost estimation to project the cost of fuel in the 2021 and 2031 timeframe. �The point estimation will be used as the initial modeling input for fuel cost with the confidence interval to bound potential high and low fuel costs for comparison purposes. The team will then develop a model for fuel consumption in the identified scenarios. Key metrics and output will be verified. Baseline fuel consumption and prices ranges will be documented. The model will be used for analysis through the application of the identified technologies, parametric examination of energy efficiency, variation of fuel price, and excursions for potential evolutions in future warfare. This analysis combined with the background research will be used to provide insight and recommendations for the impact of fuel efficiencies in future warfare.

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