Milestone 4/5

1. Milestone 4/5 SREF Fire Risk Assessment METEO473: Spring 2014 Stephen Hopkins, Bryant Sell, Mike O’Neill

2. Introduction Weather affects the spread of wildfires Weather can cause wildfires

3. Some Background • NWS Currently uses “Red Flag” and “Fire Weather” advisories for risk based on weather patterns, topography, and geography • The National Interagency Fire Center states: • From 2001-2013: • Number of wildfires caused by lightning ranged from 7,000 – 14,000 fires per year • Number of wildfires caused by humans ranged from 38,000 – 80,000 fires per year • Yearly cost for suppression only from 1985 – 2013 range from $200 million to just upwards of $1.9 billion • (Courtesy: www.nifc.gov)

4. Objectives Generate a simple decision to calculate degree of wildfire risk Communicate this risk on a map

5. Data and Methods Utilize SREF data sets Look at Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind speed, Precipitation

6. Data 2m Temperature: if temperature is below freezing we can assume a low risk, if temperature is above 70 deg F we can assume high risk 10m Wind speed: the higher the wind, the higher the risk

7. Data continued Relative Humidity: this tells us how fast fuel for fires is drying out, higher humidity gives lower risk Precipitation: this includes current (probabilistic) precipitation and 3 hour totals

8. Data not included (still important) Topography Fuel Load Wind direction: w/ topography Lightning risk Soil moisture content

9. Decision Support Algorithm Calculate risk from each variable involved Combine this into a total risk Based on the probability, generate a level of risk

10. Implementation Utilize SREF mean for each risk set Forecast over 90 hours in typical SREF 3-hour windows.

11. Results Plots a contour map Tests show…

12. Conclusion Simple risk algorithm Pros Cons