1 / 38

Strategy and Research

Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA, presents a sophisticated investment strategy through a multi-tier research approach integrating macroeconomic analysis, fundamental assessments, quantitative metrics, and technical timing strategies. His selection process employs Laffer’s economic principles and employs analysis from sources like Argus and Q.Prime. This comprehensive methodology examines income, trade, monetary, and fiscal policies, showcasing the impact on investment returns. By analyzing sector dynamics and employing a 6-point system, Kunz aims to optimize investment decisions and navigate market complexities.

kaipo
Télécharger la présentation

Strategy and Research

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Strategy and Research Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA

  2. SELECTION PROCESS • Macro Filter • Fundamental • Quantitative • Technical/Timing Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  3. APPROACH Macro  Laffer Fundamental  Argus Quantitative  Q Prime Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  4. APPROACH Macro  Laffer Strategy Don Hahn Fundamental  Argus Quantitative  Q Prime Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  5. LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? • Father of “Supply Side Economics” • Founding member of Congressional Policy Advisory Board • Member of President Reagan’s Economic Policy Advisory Board (1981-1989) Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  6. Created the Laffer’s Curve LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? - “Memorable event in financial history”Institutional Investor July 1992 - “A few of the advances that powered this extraordinary century”Times March 1999 Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  7. LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? Investment Returns Laffer Macro-100 Large Cap. Composite Vs. S&P 500 Index09/2000 -05/2004* Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  8. LAFFER/MACRO/WHY? Annualized Returns Laffer Macro-100 Large Cap. Composite Vs. S&P 500 Index09/2000 -05/2004* Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  9. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations RESULT Economic Outlook Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  10. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Impact on Private Sector • Regulations • Restrictions • Requirements Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  11. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations Affects Terms Of Trade • GAAT • NAFTA • Exchange Rates Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  12. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy MonetaryPolicy Fiscal Policy Special Situations • Federal Reserve Systems • Monetary Base • Interest Rates Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  13. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations • Taxing Government • Spending Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  14. Laffer / Methodology / Economic Outlook • 5 Areas of Information Incomes Policy Trade Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Special Situations • Monopolies / OPEC • Wars • Weather • Etc… Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  15. Laffer / Methodology / Macro Models Company Size Domestic Location Earnings Forecast Fiscal Sensitivity Global Location Interest Rate Sensitivity Trade Sensitivity Laffer Top 100 Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  16. Company Size Domestic Location Earnings Forecast Fiscal Sensitivity Global Location Interest Rate Sensitivity Trade Sensitivity +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 + VALUEADDED LARGE CAPITALISATION + FISCAL CHANGE + EARNINGSCHANGE + FISCAL CHANGE + FISCAL CHANGE RISING RATES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - VALUEADDED SMALL CAPITALISATION - FISCAL CHANGE - EARNINGSCHANGE - FISCAL CHANGE - FISCAL CHANGE FALLINGRATES -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Laffer / Methodology / Macro Models Macro Model Biases Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  17. LAFFER/MACRO/Performance Macro Portfolio Performance By Quintiles vs. The S&P-500 Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  18. Argus Fundamental / Why • Independent Research Firm • In Business for nearly 70 years • 6-point system is a blend of: • Top Down • Bottom Up Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  19. Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Result Buy / Hold / Sell Rating Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  20. Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Outperforming Industries • Forecast Economy • Forecast Interest Rates • Collaborate with Industry Analysts Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  21. Argus / Methodology / 6-Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Peer Market Comparison • Sales • Earnings • Dividends • Cash Flows Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  22. Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Ratio Analysis • Financial Statements • Footnotes Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  23. Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Know Management • Meetings • Road Shows • Conference Calls Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  24. Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Qualitative Quantitative • Institutional Ownership • Insider Ownership • Porter five Forces Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  25. Argus / Methodology / 6 Point System Industryanalysis GrowthAnalysis Financialstrengthanalysis Quality of Management RiskAnalysis ValuationAnalysis Establish Target Price • Forecasts • Adjust for Beta Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  26. Q Prime / Quantitative / Why ? • Flexible  Tailor-made • Relative factors • Historical factors • Proven track record from Morningstar Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  27. 6 Categories 1 2 3 4 5 6 17 Factors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology Infinite Combinations Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  28. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return A/PE R/PE A/PB R/PB A/PS Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  29. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return Yield Payout Reinv. Rate Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  30. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return Quarterly EPS Quarterly Sales Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  31. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return Estimated Growth Estimated Revisions Time Weighted Revisions Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  32. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return Growth EPS Surprises Vola. Ajd. EPS Surprises Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  33. Q Prime / Quantitative / Methodology • 6 Categories Valuations Dividends Momentum Growth Reliability Return Long Term Price Trend 1-Month Relative Perf. 2- Month Relative Perf. Etc... Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  34. Q Prime / Quantitative / Model 1) Value 2) Growth 3) Rotational (Balanced) 4) Q-Score Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  35. Q Prime / Quantitative / Value Model 1) Deep Value 2) EPS Surprises 3) EPS Revisions 4) 6-month returns Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  36. Q Prime / Quantitative / Value Model Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  37. Technical/Timing • Don Hahn  Long/Intermediate-term • DeMark  Overbought/Oversold • Oscillators  Momentum • Pattern Recognition  Bar charts, candlesticks, P&F Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

  38. Recap Macro  Laffer Fundamental  Argus Quantitative  Q Prime Technical/Timing  DeMark / Oscillators / Paterns / Etc… Samuel Kunz, CFA, MFTA - Strategy and Research

More Related