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The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and Urban Prediction Needs in China

The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and Urban Prediction Needs in China. LIANG Feng and WANG Jianjie Beijing Meteorological Bureau, CMA. Outline. Urban Prediction needs in China Overview of B08FDP Benefits and experiences. Urbanization in China.

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The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and Urban Prediction Needs in China

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  1. The Beijing 08 Forecast Demonstration Project and Urban Prediction Needs in China LIANG Feng and WANG Jianjie Beijing Meteorological Bureau, CMA

  2. Outline • Urban Prediction needs in China • Overview of B08FDP • Benefits and experiences

  3. Urbanization in China Urbanization speed up with the rapid development of economy. Urbanization Rate of China 2006: 32.53% (Beijing, 75.6%) Referenced from CIUDSRC’s report, 12 Dec. 2008

  4. Heavy fog Thunderstorm Snow • Huge population density in Urban area • City operation systems are very fragile and sensitive to weather changes Extreme local rainfall Hail

  5. Needs for Urban Prediction * From 2005 to 2008, street surveys were conducted for citizens and tourists in Beijing. Over 8,000 questionnaires were collected.

  6. Major challenge for 2008 Olympic Weather Service – detail rainfall forecast 40N Total area：16,800km2 Mountainous：62% Urban：1,040km2 Sharp variation in terrain (30-2000 m). More convective systems in summer

  7. Overview of B08FDP • B08FDP was endorsed By 7th session of WWRP SSCin Oct. 2004 • Mission: Through international collaboration, to demonstrate and quantify the benefits during the 2008 Olympic period of an end-to-end nowcasting weather Service (0-6 h) focused on high impact weather and based on latest science and technology.

  8. International Participants 8 nowcasting systems: + Verification (RTFV) SEIA WG BJANC (BMB&NCAR), CARDS (MSC), GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA), MAPLE (McGill & WDT), NIWOT (NCAR), STEPS (BOM), SWIRLS (HKO), TIFS (BOM)

  9. Core steps of B08FDP Planning & Developing Testing & Training Demo. Summary 2008 2007 2006 2005 Strategic Plan Annual Implementation Plan Annual workshop Local Environment & Systems Development System trials Systems & infrastructure improvement Training workshops Demonstration IOP (25days) Warm up (20 days)

  10. Schedule of the 2008 Forecast Demonstration 25/6 7/7 15/7 1/8 System update 2nd training workshop 25/8 Real time data started Local champions on duty only 20/9 Intensive Operation Period System frozen Local champions on duty only Final Demonstration (68 days) Warm up (20 days)

  11. 1) Products for meteorologists QPF PoP Storm track Severe weather Real time verification reflectivity Individual product Totally, 179 forecasts were issued through the blog of the FDP web during the demo.

  12. 16 experts of the B08FDP on duty at BMB

  13. 2) Products for public Training 120 volunteers to use and feedback Some B08FDP products (warning, precipitation forecast, storm track, etc.) will be put on Beijing Olympic weather services webpage for public

  14. Survey to decision-makers B08FDP contributed to the improved satisfaction of end-users on the nowcasting service

  15. Benefits for CMA/BMB • Successful and supportive nowcasting technology transfer for Beijing Olympics • Enhanced use of OBS in nowcasting • Improvements in the infrastructure (e.g., radar synchronization, inter-radar calibration) • Efficient data framework (e.g., nowcast data format standards established) • Efficient and effective use of high resolution observation network

  16. New Concepts, new strategy: • Verification: • spatial verification, real-time verification… • Impact studies • Extensive surveys conducted with different end users of nowcasting products • Implementation of user-oriented service strategy • Improving public understanding on nowcasting • Knowledge transfer • 2010: Shanghai EXPO, Guangzhou 16th Asian Games • 2011: Shenzhen 26th Summer Universiade

  17. Benefits for all participants • Developments of new approaches to nowcasting • Severe weather and precipitation nowcasting diagnostics • Blending extrapolation of radar echoes with NWP products • Ensemble and probability based nowcasts • Convective initiation and effective use of the human • Real-time verification • Inter-comparison of nowcasting algorithms

  18. Advanced end-to-end nowcast weather service: a prototype for future • Forecast processes that enabled effective use of the nowcast systems without overloading the forecasters • Successful technology transfer to operations (e.g., training sessions, mentoring and interaction with experts) • Production of guidance products for a variety of users (internal and external) • Effective interaction with decision maker • Good Dataset for future researches

  19. Keys for a successful FDP • A shared and articulated vision, along with a common set of goals and objectives clearly defined • Strong leadership, careful project management, effective communication, and follow up of tasks • Actively and fully engaged local organization in the collaborative integration and advanced system design, being eager to adapt and accept new technology • Actively committed experts from participating organizations to the project • Sufficient resources for the project

  20. Acknowledgement for all B08FDP international participants Thanks for your attention

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