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Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?

Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?. Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010. MAIN POINTS. The impact of economic crisis on the European gas market

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Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?

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  1. Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010

  2. MAIN POINTS • The impact of economic crisis on the European gas market • The effect of crisis, and recovery, on Russia and other CIS producers • Ukraine’s gas trade after the 2009 ‘gas war’ • Prospects for international cooperation

  3. Observed gas demand, OECD Europe (bcm) It may return to pre-crisis levels only in 2013-14 Source: IEA

  4. Changes in the European marketOil-linked prices may not be with us forever

  5. Natural gas imports to OECD Europefirst nine months of the year, Bcm Russia lost market share

  6. A very different outlook for Russia and Gazprom Worries about a ‘supply squeeze’ have gone. Now there are questions about long-term demand. Gazprom’s big projects are being delayed ... Gazprom will face competition in Europe from LNG... Russia’s dominance in central Asia has been undermined by the Turkmenistan-China pipeline ... In Russia, Gazprom is under pressure from the oil companies and Novatek ...

  7. Main sources of supply to Russia’s gas balance, 2008-2009 (bcm)

  8. Turkmen gas exports, 2008-2011 (bcm)

  9. Ukraine after the January 2009 ‘gas war’ • Nord Stream will be built and Ukraine’s bargaining power will be reduced • Ukraine will pay European-linked prices for imports • Gas consumption must be cut – by energy-saving, not industrial slump • Production could be increased

  10. Russian gas export capacity to Europe up to 2015: transit via Ukraine could be reduced

  11. Ukraine’s demand collapse, 2009 monthly consumption, as % of same month in 2008 Demand destruction concentrated in industry, but slowly recovering since the spring 11

  12. Ukraine’s 2009 gas imports problem was converted into a cash problem * Source: energy ministry, Naftogaz. ** Assuming oil at $70/bbl ... the IMF counted $3bn Naftogaz operating deficit as part of Ukraine’s fiscal shortfall But what will happen in 2010?

  13. Europe, Ukraine and Russia: areas of possible cooperation TRANSIT AND STORAGE: How could a consortium work to the benefit of all? Could Ukraine become a storage provider? REDUCING CONSUMPTION: In industry, it will depend on sourcing investment Municipal services reform is hard (in Russia too) What about price reform, and Naftogaz structure? INCREASING GAS PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE: What type of investment environment? The more transparency, the better 13

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