American Politics & Policy Election Year Outlook

1. American Politics & PolicyElection Year Outlook Presentation by Philip M. Burgess, Ph.D. President, The Annapolis Institute pburgess@annapolisinstitute.net for Carnegie Mellon University Vietnam Study Group Meeting in Washington, D.C. August 9, 2012

2. Major PartyCandidates Incumbent: Barack Obama (Democrat) Major Party Challenger: Mitt Romney (Republican) Third Party Challengers: Libertarian, Greens, Peace & Freedom, American Independent Party, Constitution Party Others

3. IssuesAt the 10,000 foot level • Widely-shared: • Jobs/economic recovery, health care, debt & deficit • For Republicans: • Romney will limit government, reform taxes, reduce spendingand regulation, repeal ObamaCare, grow the economy and jobs • Obama is an amateur who lacks the skills needed to be president • Obama sees government as the driver of change, innovation 3. For Democrats: • Obama deserves more time to make his policies work • Obama looks out for the little guy, protects the middle class • Romney will favor the rich, cut entitlements and the safety net for the poor and middle class, and return to the Bush policies of deregulation that led to the GFC

4. Issues According to Polls

5. The Campaign Setting • Voluntary, not compulsory, voting • Private, not public, financing of campaigns • Voters select, political parties validate candidates • Candidates develop their own political organization • Political power lies with candidate organization, not the party organization • State and local governments run the elections • Indirect election of president via electors • Fixed-term for the President: 4 years

6. What’s at Stake • The Presidency = President & VP • All 435 Members of the House of Representatives – Current split: Rs=241; Ds=191; Vacancies=3 • One-third of the US Senate or 33 seats – 23 currently held by Democrats (incl. 1 Ind.) – 10 currently held by Republicans

7. Over-all Strategy • Create campaign organization • More important than party organization since JFK • Create ‘get out the vote’ (GOTV) at local level • Mobilize resources • People, money, space, technology, information, leadership • Identify ‘safe’ and ‘swing’states • Create path to 270 electoral votes • Identify issues of concern to core constituencies: “the base” • ‘All politics are local;’ move from “herd” to “strays” • Manage communications and messaging • National Nominating Convention • Prepare for the Presidential Debates • Messaging, message management (war room), advertising

8. Strategies:The Path to 270 The Electoral College • In the Constitution: Article II, Section 1, Clause 2, specifies • number for each state • state legislature to decide how to select electors • 538 electors elected by each State • Electors elect the President • Winning majority = 270 • ‘Big’ v. ‘small’ states • Urban v. rural states • ‘Safe’ states and ‘Swing’ states

9. Electoral Vote in 2008Obama 365 v. McCain 173

10. Electoral Votes for 2012Post-2010 Reapportionment

11. Seven ‘Swing’ and 11 ‘Battleground’ States in 2012 Status in August States Electoral Votes Solid Democrat (14) 182 Lean Democrat (06) 65…..247 Toss-up (07) 85 Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) Nevada (6) Lean Republican (05) 63 Solid Republican (19) 143…..206

12. Seven ‘Swing’ States in 2012(as of July 22, 2012)

13. Strategies:The Campaign • Mobilize volunteers to get out the vote • Candidate loyalists • Party activists • Ideological activists • Issue activists • Advertising targeted to voters in Swing and Battleground states and to Independent & Undecided voters generally • Local events for fundraising, meet-and-greet • Local advertising – e.g., lawn signs

14. Strategies:Media Channels • Broadcast media: TV & cable news, talk radio • Social media: Twitter, blogs, email, Facebook • Print media: Newspapers, magazines, direct mail Approach • Paid media: Ads on TV, newspapers; mail outs, etc. • Free media: Coverage of ads, events, controversies Challenges • Cost, media bias, clutter

15. 13 Keys to the White House

16. US House of Representativesby Party

17. 2012 US Senate ElectionsBlue=D; Red=R; Grey=No electionCurrent Division 51 D v. 47 R; Seats up in 2012: D/I=23 v. R=10

18. Current Governors by PartyRs=29; Ds=20; I=1

19. Religious Diversity of US GovernorsThe Numbers

20. Religious Diversity of GovernorsThe Distribution

21. Governing in America America’s Founding Fathers had an abject fear of tyranny and did all they could to contain power. • Separation of powers between the legislative, executive and judicial branches of government • Division of powers between the central or national government and state governments (Federalism) • Checks and balances among the branches and between the national government and the states • Enumerated powers (Article 1, Sec. 8) • Reserved powers (10th Amendment) • Best single source to get a ‘feel’ for the senti-ments of the Founders: Federalist Papers, #51

22. Thank you! For more information, contact: Philip M. Burgess The Annapolis Institute Email: phil.burgess@annapolisinstitute.net 3100 Landfall Lane Annapolis, Maryland 21403 Skype: pburgess3100 URL: www.AnnapolisInstitute.net URL: www.BooterNation.com