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Examining Key Natural Gas Market Influences for 2011 and Beyond

Examining Key Natural Gas Market Influences for 2011 and Beyond. AGA Leadership Council March 29, 2011 Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis. U.S. Natural Gas Supply (2007-2010). Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals. U. S. Natural Gas Prices.

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Examining Key Natural Gas Market Influences for 2011 and Beyond

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  1. Examining Key Natural Gas Market Influences for 2011 and Beyond AGA Leadership Council March 29, 2011 Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis

  2. U.S. Natural Gas Supply (2007-2010) Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals.

  3. U. S. Natural Gas Prices Source: Energy Information Administration, March 2011.

  4. Daily Natural Gas Consumption by SectorJanuary 1-December 31, 2010 Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, December 31, 2010.

  5. Power GenerationAverage Daily Natural Gas ConsumptionJanuary 1-December 31, 2010 Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, December 31, 2010.

  6. Natural Gas Supply Outlook EIA/AEO Early Release Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011Early Release.

  7. Sources of Natural Gas Supplies Bcf/Day Jan 2006 Jan 2011 Domestic Production 49.5 59.2 Storage Withdrawals 8.7 26.4 Imports 9.8 8.9 Balancing Item 1.8 0 Total Consumption 69.8 94.5 Source: Energy Information Administration; Bentek Energy LLC.

  8. Comparisons of January 2006 vs. January 2011 Residential Gas Bills and Prices Illinois Massachusetts 2006 Residential Price $13.64 $19.41 2011 Residential Price* $8.08 $13.85 2006 Gas Bill $222.41 $264.89 2011 Gas Bill* $181.41 $241.79 *Estimated, based on regional EIA short-term forecasts, historical data, and heating degree days. Source: Energy Information Administration

  9. Comparisons of Residential Gas Bills Using January 2006 and January 2011 Prices and January 2011 Consumption Levels Illinois Massachusetts January 2011 Gas Bill Using $181.41 $241.79 January 2011 Residential Prices January 2011 Gas Bill Using $306.25 $338.82 January 2006 Residential Prices Savings Due to Lower Prices $124.84 $97.03

  10. U.S. Dry Natural Gas Reserves(1988-2009) Source: Energy Information Administration. Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2009)

  11. Energy Information AdministrationReserves and Production of Dry Natural Gas in the United States (TCF) EIA Dry Gas Year Reserves Production 1990 169 17.8 1992 165 17.8 1994 164 18.8 1996 166 18.9 1998 164 19.0 2000 177 19.2 2002 187 18.9 2004 193 18.6 2006 211 18.5 2008 245 20.4 2009 273 21.6

  12. Potential Gas CommitteeDetermination of Future Supply of Natural Gas in the United States (TCF) DOE Traditional Coal Future Cumulative Ultimate Reserves + Resources + Gas = Supply + Production = Resource 1990 169 855 147 1,172 777 1,949 1992 165 854 147 1,166 815 1,981 1994 164 881 147 1,192 853 2,045 1996 166 921 146 1,234 893 2,127 1998 164 896 141 1,202 933 2,134 2000 177 936 155 1,268 973 2,241 2002 187 958 169 1,314 1,013 2,327 2004 193 950 169 1,312 1,053 2,364 2006 211 1,155 166 1,532 1,091 2,623 2008 238 1,673 163 2,074 1,132 3,206

  13. Hydraulic Fracturing Source: Chesapeake Energy.

  14. Hydraulic Fracturing TreatmentWoodford Shale, Canadian County, Oklahoma Source: JPTOnline, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  15. Estimates of Underground Natural Gas Storage Capacity, 2006-2010 Source: Form EIA-191M, “Monthly Natural Gas Underground Storage Report,” and Form EIA-191A, “Annual Natural Gas Underground Storage Report.”

  16. NORTH AMERICA LNG IMPORT CAPACITY 2010 Everett, MA 1.035 Bcfd Cove Point, MD 1.800 Bcfd Elba Island, GA 1.600 Bcfd Lake Charles, LA 2.100 Bcfd Gulf Gateway, LA 0.500 Bcfd Northeast Gateway, MA 0.800 Bcfd GDF Suez-Neptune, MA 0.400 Bcfd Freeport, TX 1.500 Bcfd Sabine, LA 4.000 Bcfd Hackberry, LA 1.800 Bcfd ` Other North America 2.700 Bcfd Total 18.235 Bcfd Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

  17. Mar Jul Sep Nov Source: Bentek Energy LLC, December 31, 2010.

  18. Recurring Natural Gas Energy Themes • Market Stability • Resource Abundance with Development Challenges • Seasonal, Peak Month and Peak Day Reliability • Energy Efficiency

  19. Usage Guidelines Slide Description:Contact Info Usage:Last slide of presentation. Insert name, role, contact number and email address. To remove this box, simply click on the edge of the box (to select the whole box) and then press “delete.” Thank You! Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis cmcgill@aga.org

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