SPEC: (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer

1. SPEC: (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer February 2012 Survey Findings Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate; Kenya Release Date: 20th February 2012 Synovate is now Ipsos-Synovate

2. Methodology

3. Survey Methodology Dates of polling 27th January – 1st February 2012 1,523 respondents Sample Size Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Sampling methodology Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Data collection methodology Computer Aided Telephonic Interviewing (CATI) Sampling error +/-2.5 with a 95% confidence level

4. Objectives • Determine public opinion on whether Honourable William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta should vie for presidency based on the ICC indictment • Perceived outcome if the two are barred from vying for the presidency • Determine preferred presidential candidate and running mate for the“G7 Alliance” • Establish voting patterns in case of a run off

5. Timing of Release • This is a follow-up press release to the survey released on 2nd February 2012 • Contents of this report were not released because they touched on issues pertaining to Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto’s eligibility to run for presidency • On 2nd February 2012, The High Court had banned all public debate on whether Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are eligible to contest the presidency – hence the reason Ipsos-Synovate did not release these results

6. “Should Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Honourable William Ruto vie for the presidency now that the ICC has confirmed that they need to stand trial for crimes relating to Post Election Violence?” Base: All Respondents (n=1,523)

7. “Should Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Honourable William Ruto vie for the presidency now that the ICC has confirmed that they need to stand trial for crimes relating to Post Election Violence?” (By Province) % saying “YES” Base: All Respondents (n=1,523)

8. “What do you think would happen if Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is barred from vying for the presidency?” Positive about outcome= 59% Negative = 30% Not sure = 10% Base: All Respondents (n=1,523)

9. “What do you think would happen if Honourable William Ruto is barred from vying for the presidency?” Positive about outcome= 59% Negative = 30% Not sure = 10% Base: All Respondents (n=1,523)

10. G7 Alliance: Preferred Presidential & Deputy candidates *1st Name: Presidential candidate *2nd Name: Deputy President / Running mate Base: Base: 495 (Those mentioned a presidential & deputy presidential candidates for the G7 Alliance

11. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Total) *Released on 2nd February 2012 Base: All Respondents (n=1,523)

12. “Assuming Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Honourable William Ruto were not running for President, whom would you vote for if presidential elections were held today and that person was a candidate?” *Please note the that survey was carried out before perceived “fall out” between Kalonzo and G7 group

13. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...” *OCTOBER 2011 SURVEY

14. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...” *FEBRUARY 2012 SURVEY

15. “Who would you vote for in case of a run-off between...”

16. For further information contact: Maggie Ireri Managing Director maggie.ireri@ipsos.com OR Victor Rateng Project Manager - Opinion Polls victor.rateng@ipsos.com OR Betty Ochieng Head of Public Affairs betty.ochieng@ipsos.com Follow us on twitter: @IpsosSynovateKe