1 / 18

The economic impacts of counterfeiting

The economic impacts of counterfeiting. Presentation for BASCAP congress 2009. 02 December 2009. Text. Txt. Understanding economic costs is complex. Text. Txt. Clear objectives Understanding costs to consumers and government. Transparent results Results which follow from the data

karim
Télécharger la présentation

The economic impacts of counterfeiting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. The economic impacts of counterfeiting Presentation for BASCAP congress 2009 02 December 2009

  2. Text • Txt Understanding economic costs is complex Text • Txt • Clear objectives • Understanding costs to consumers and government • Transparent results • Results which follow from the data • Conservative results Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt • Robust methods • Bottom up, start with the micro level Text • Txt Text • Txt • Use transparent assumptions and best data • Always conservative Text • Txt …we developed simple bottom-up model

  3. Text • Txt Overall approach Text • Txt • Two countries: • UK • Mexico • Four sectors: • Food and drink • Luxury goods • Pharmaceuticals • Software • Five outcomes • Tax and benefits • Employment • Health • Crime • FDI Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt • Grossed up to economy level • Grossed up to G20 Text • Txt …methods experimental, results preliminary

  4. Objectives • Methods • Results

  5. OECD recognises four issues • Counterfeit and pirated goods moving through international trade • Domestically produced and consumed counterfeit and pirated goods • Pirated digital products distributed via the internet • Broader economy wide effects

  6. Trying to measure loss to economy Proportion of counterfeit goods consumed is the counterfeiting rate Measuring the effect of counterfeit consumption on domestic production The impact on domestic production traced through to tax receipts, benefit payments Domestic production Our analysis is focused here Domestic consumption Imports Domestic production Consumption of counterfeits Tax lost, benefit paid

  7. Objectives • Methods • Results

  8. Text • Txt Aim for best estimate based on bottom up modelling Text • Txt Text • Txt • Be clear about counterfactual • Estimate level of counterfeiting Text • Txt Text • Txt • Luxury goods • Food • Pharma • Software Text • Txt Text • Txt • Impact on firm output and pricing • Model economic costs Text • Txt …not a macro model

  9. Text • Txt Five modules Text • Txt Industry impact Text • Txt Text • Txt Health Tax, benefits Text • Txt Total costs Text • Txt Text • Txt FDI Crime Text • Txt … make up the economic model

  10. Text • Txt The UK industry impact calculation Text • Txt • Assume only 2% of food and luxury goods counterfeit • 40% of those purchasing counterfeit luxury goods would shift to real thing • Reduced industry turnover • Reduced profits • Job losses and long term unemployment Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt • Data on industry specific turnover, profits and employment Text • Txt Text • Txt • Unemployment data • By length of time unemployed Text • Txt …feeds into tax and benefit calculations

  11. Text • Txt Tax and benefits module Text • Txt • Estimated impact on: • Turnover • Profits • Employment • Apply rates of: • Sales tax • Corporation tax • Income tax • Estimate • Additional benefit payments Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt • Estimated reduction in tax receipts • Estimated increase in benefit payments Text • Txt

  12. Text • Txt Crime, health and FDI Text • Txt Crime Health FDI Text • Txt • Total cost in UK €150 bn • 3.6% GDP estimate for Mexico • Can assume counterfeiting increases it by small percentage • Calculated for G20 • Review 30+ studies of deaths related to counterfeiting • Develop annual estimate of deaths – 3,0000 • conservative value to each premature death • NBER estimates poor IPR enforcement reduces exports from poorer countries by 20% • We assume 5% impact on Mexico Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt

  13. Objectives • Methods • Results

  14. Text • Txt UK and Mexico results Text • Txt UK Mexico Text • Txt • Four sectors: • €500 million in lost taxes • 15,000 jobs lost,1,200 long term • Economy wide • €4 billion lost tax • 380,000 jobs lost • 31,000 long term • Four sectors • €220 million lost taxes • 10,000 jobs lost, 500 long term • Economy wide • €1.4 billion lost tax • 480,000 jobs lost, 26,000 long term • 520 million tax lost from lost FDI Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt

  15. Text • Txt Illustrative extrapolation to G20 Text • Txt • Extrapolate tax losses • With 50% discount • Extrapolate employment losses • €60 billion lost in tax revenue • 2.5 million jobs lost, 160,000 long term • Very big economic costs of crime and health Text • Txt Text • Txt Text • Txt • €20 billion cost for every 1% increase in crime rate caused by counterfeiting Text • Txt Text • Txt • Perhaps 3,000 lives lost from exposure to counterfeit food and medicines Text • Txt

  16. Text • Txt A lot more still to do to understand economic effects Text • Txt Text • Txt • Improve methodology • Improve data Text • Txt Text • Txt • Better evidence • Better policy Text • Txt Text • Txt • Implement in other sectors and countries • Carry out CBAs of regulatory responses Text • Txt

  17. Frontier Economics Limited in Europe is a member of the Frontier Economics network, which consists of separate companies based in Europe (Brussels, Cologne, London and Madrid) and Australia (Melbourne & Sydney). The companies are independently owned, and legal commitments entered into by any one company do not impose any obligations on other companies in the network. All views expressed in this document are the views of Frontier Economics Limited.

  18. FRONTIER ECONOMICS EUROPE LTD. BRUSSELS|COLOGNE|LONDON | MADRID Frontier Economics Ltd, 71 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6DA Tel. +44 (0)20 7031 7000 Fax. +44 (0)20 7031 7001 www.frontier-economics.com

More Related