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Hurricanes

Hurricanes. A storm of tropical origin that is a heat engine fueled by The release of latent heat. In Atlantic&East Pacific: Hurricanes In West Pacific: Typhoons In Indian Ocean: Cyclones. http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/mvmt.rxml.

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Hurricanes

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  1. Hurricanes A storm of tropical origin that is a heat engine fueled by The release of latent heat. In Atlantic&East Pacific: Hurricanes In West Pacific: Typhoons In Indian Ocean: Cyclones http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/mvmt.rxml Most form between 5 and 20 degrees over tropical oceans EXCEPT in the South Atlantic and Eastern South Pacific

  2. Atlantic Hurricane Season • Runs from: • J UNE 1 - NOVEMBER 30 • AVERAGE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN: • 10 NAMED STORMS • 6 HURRICANE • 3 MAJOR HURRICANES (CATEORY 3 OR GREATER)

  3. www.nhc.noaa.gov

  4. Prevailing June Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  5. Prevailing July Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  6. Prevailing August Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  7. Prevailing September Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  8. Prevailing October Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  9. Prevailing November Tracks www.nhc.noaa.gov

  10. Hurricanes Conditions for formation • Initial Disturbance • Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) (>80oF) • weak wind shear • High Pressure aloft • Vorticity max near surface • High moisture Initial Disturbance can come from: • Thunderstorms • Easterly waves • Old frontal boundaries

  11. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) From http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst.html

  12. Vorticity from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

  13. Wind Shear is the change in Wind’s Direction or speed with height www.weatherquestions.com

  14. Wind Shear

  15. Upper Level Divergence and Low level Convergence

  16. Upper Level Divergence

  17. Low Level Convergence

  18. The next slides are examples from Hurricane Wilma-shear tendency and the ULdiv

  19. Hurricanes Stages of Development 1.Tropical Wave -an easterly moving trough of low pressure http://people.cas.sc.edu/carbone/modules/mods4car/tropcycl/pages/easterlywave.html

  20. Hurricanes Stages of Development • 2. Tropical Disturbance • a tropical weather system of organized convection, 100-300nm in diameter, that has been organized for 24hours - large cluster of thunderstorm activity

  21. Hurricanes Stages of Development • 3. Tropical Depression • -Tropical Cyclone in which maximum sustained • winds are 38 mph or less • – the tropical system is numbered. • NHC begins to issue advisories

  22. Hurricanes Stages of Development • 4. Tropical Storm • -Tropical Cyclone in which maximum • sustained winds are between 39 mph and 73 mph. • -Tropical Storm is named

  23. Storm Names

  24. Hurricanes Stages of Development 5. Hurricane -category based on The Saffir-Simpson Scale

  25. Hurricanes

  26. Hurricanes Stages of Development A storm will DECAY if: • Move over cooler ocean waters • Move onto land • Wind shear • Dry air in the mid or low levels

  27. Hurricanes Structure How does Pressure, Temperature, Rainfall, and Wind Change as you pass through a storm? Cirrus shield

  28. 2 &4 Apr. 2007

  29. Andrea 2007

  30. Hurricane Detection & monitoring Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is responsible for issuing watches, warnings, Forecasts and analysis of hazardous weather in the tropics. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) for the Atlantic, Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific Geostationary satellites Reconnaissance Aircraft- USAF C-130 , NOAA P-3, & Gulfstream-4 Jet Aircraft Coastal Radars Ships Buoys

  31. Key West Radar during Katrina

  32. 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron 403rd Wing, Air Force Reserve Command, Keesler AFB, Biloxi, MS Alpha Pattern

  33. Eyewall of Katrina

  34. NOAA Aircraft Operations Center MacDill AFB, Tampa, FL

  35. New Technology An unmanned hurricane hunter… UAV: Aerosonde Safety: It can fly into areas too risky for the manned hurricane hunters Long endurance: Flew across the Atlantic Ocean in 27 hours on 1.5gal.of fuel Economical: Made world record when flew for 38 straight hours before refueling

  36. Types of Hurricane Forecasts • Seasonal vs. Event • Seasonal - Forecasts for amount of activity in upcoming season and further • Bill Gray - Colorado State University • Jim Elsner- Florida State University • Event - Forecasts produced for individual system(s) • We’ll focus on event forecasts

  37. Hurricane Forecasting • Numerical Models: • Data collected from aircraft and satellites are used to initialize models • Many different models are used to provide a statistical strike probability • Uncertainty: • Poor initialization due to lack of data • Differing ways these models incorporate physical processes • Different ways models are constructed

  38. Wilma

  39. Katrina 9 Apr. 2007

  40. Katrina

  41. Hurricane Track & Intensity The environmental flow has the most influence over the track of a storm http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/kids/movncane.htm Intensity is affected by the interactions occurring within the storm -ocean evaporation -latent heat release -thunderstorm formation -amount of outflow aloft -amount of windshear

  42. Hurricanes and El Nino El Niño (Spanish name for the male child), initially referred to a weak, warm current appearing annually around Christmas time along the coast of Ecuador and Peru and lasting only a few weeks to a month or more

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