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The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in the Context of Ocean Observing

The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in the Context of Ocean Observing. RARGOM Modeling and Observing System Workshop July 6, 2005. Josie Quintrell. GoMOOS. The Promise of Modeling. Predictive capacity Strategic sampling Early warning systems

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The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in the Context of Ocean Observing

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  1. The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in the Context of Ocean Observing RARGOM Modeling and Observing System Workshop July 6, 2005 Josie Quintrell GoMOOS

  2. The Promise of Modeling • Predictive capacity • Strategic sampling • Early warning systems • Links between physical-chemical-biology • Real-time measurements • Adaptive management • Ecosystem management • Desktop Decision Support Tools • Simulations

  3. No Single Type of Manager • Water quality managers: discharge permit decisions, monitoring, nps pollution, mitigation • Habitat managers: habitat protection, regulation and restoration • Fisheries managers: stock assessment, management plans, regulations, ecosystem management; • Marine geology: mapping and permitting; • Coastal/marine planning: land use management, aquaculture, dredging, facility permitting (LNG, wind farms, etc) • Emergency response: oil spill preventions and management; search and rescue; hazards

  4. Some needs of managers… • Fisheries • Models linked to fisheries regulations • Biophysical models in support of ecosystem management • Aquaculture • Near shore models to predict affect of facilities on local environment for permitting and monitoring needs (currents, flushing rates, nutrients, phytoplankton abundance and distribution) • Marine Mammal Protection • Real-time and predictions on location of Right Whales

  5. Needs, con’t • Oil spill prevention and recovery • Desktop simulation tools for prevention and contingency planning • Incorporation of real-time wind, wave and current data into response models • Public health • Predictive capacity and tracking of HABs to assist with strategic sampling, early warning systems • Dredge management • Decision support tools to determine dredging “windows”, physical models to assist disposal issues, beach nourishment

  6. Needs, Con’t • Emergency management • Wave and storm surge predictions • Integration of real-time data into models for search and rescue, oil spill mitigation and storm surge. • Marine water quality • Nutrient loading models to determine “Total Daily Maximum Load” for estuaries; • Connection between offshore and near shore systems

  7. The Proverbial Gap Continues ….. • Many bridges built … • Science translators • Extension/outreach • Shared communications (e.g., this meeting) • Focus on applied research • Important but not sufficient ….. • Gap: No “incentive” for product development • Private sector – no market • Scientists -- no intellectual rewards

  8. Private Sector? • Managers • Immediate Needs • Decision Support Tools • Long Term Needs • Adaptive Management Researchers Improved understanding Process studies Coupled models Ocean Observing Continuous & RT data Product development

  9. Ocean Observing • Linking research to operations through sustained measurements and modeling.. • Shrimp demonstration -- integrating environmental, modeling and landings data for Technical Team • Red Tide -- MWRA used model to track bloom progression and sampling protocols • Bottom temperature maps for lobster managers and fishermen

  10. IOOS Demo: A Community Approach to Storm Surge Modeling (as opposed to a community model for storm surge) Result Dissemination Wind Information Wave and/or Surge Models Select region and time range NCEP Archive ADCirc MM5 Verification ElCirc NCAR Transform and transport data Visualization WAM/SWAN Regional Ensemble of models run across distributed resources Analysis, storage and cataloguing of output data Input data from varied and distributed sources

  11. Next steps …. • Use regional ocean observing efforts to support 1-2 test projects that would form teams of researchers, modelers, managers, software engineers to develop predictive tools specifically aimed at meeting managers needs -- e.g.,red tide warning system, etc • Explore community approach to environmental prediction in Gulf of Maine • Engage private sector in demonstrations

  12. Summary • Researchers – aimed at applying new knowledge to improve management (adaptive management – long term) • Managers - implementing existing management framework (decision support tools – short term) • Decision support tools -- who? • Ocean observing? Private sector? Regional group?

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