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CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast. Prepared  Saturday 26 June 2010. Anticipated Flights. NOAA Twin Otter Sat:    two flights? Sun:   two flights? Mon:  potentially one flight?  Tue:   transit to LA Wed:  Mexico flight CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sat:     No G-1 but B-200 flight possible

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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Saturday26 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA Twin Otter Sat:    two flights? Sun:   two flights? Mon:  potentially one flight?  Tue:   transit to LA Wed:  Mexico flight CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sat:     No G-1 but B-200 flight possible Sun:    AM/PM flights likely Mon:   AM/PM flights likely

  3. Local Features - Sac area focus Saturday - projected light W flow from Sacramento area into foothills and turning south; Sac transport toward T0 but moves south of T1; moderate air quality.   Sunday - synoptic flow weakens significantly, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; pollutant concentrations build (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast); weak flow from Sac to T0 (with long transport time) and flow south of T1; winds <5 kts. Monday - ridge lingering longer than forecast previously; onshore flow develops late, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; light winds, Sac air flows south of T1; USG air quality may remain.

  4. Synoptic Overview Saturday June 26 • Trough now over NV as High Pressure builds over the west • Transport flow turns Northerly • Synoptic gradients weaken Sunday June 27 • High Pressure peaks • Light and variable flow • Onshore gradient weakens Monday June 28 • High Pressure breaks down as Trof approaches • Transport flow SW north, Southerly south • Marine layer deepens in the north • Light and variable flow S.CA Tue – Thurs • Tue:   Deep Trof approaches, SW flow throughout • Wed:  Trof axis over N.CA late aftn-eve, SW flow, deeper marine layer • Thurs: Trof axis over Ca, W-NW flow in N.CA, W-SW in S.CA

  5. GFS and ECMWF Updated Saturday, June 26, 2010

  6. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Saturday – Fri 17 PDT

  7. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Saturday – 05 PDT

  8. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

  9. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

  10. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  11. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  12. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  13. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  14. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

  15. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  16. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  17. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  18. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  19. 14 UTC

  20. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX  updated Sat, June 26

  21. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Saturday, June 26

  22. Large Scale Transport  focus on Sacramento area500m RDF FX 00Z 06/26 (Sat Afternoon)Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Limited vertical displacement; moderate descent to west. 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/27 (Sun Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Low to moderate descent of air. 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/28 (Mon Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; large descent to west. focus on San Joaquin Valley500m RDF FX 00Z 06/29 (Tue Afternoon) Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); moderate O3 levels; BC_OC and SO4 higher in Kern County). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; more descent on west side of valley.

  23. 500m Black and Organic C - Saturday afternoon

  24. 500m PM2.5 - Saturday afternoon

  25. 500m CO - Saturday afternoon

  26. 500m O3 - Saturday afternoon

  27. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Saturday afternoon

  28. 500m Vertical Displacement - Saturday afternoon

  29. 500m Black and Organic C - Sunday afternoon

  30. 500m PM2.5 - Sunday afternoon

  31. 500m CO - Sunday afternoon

  32. 500m O3 - Sunday afternoon

  33. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Sunday afternoon

  34. 500m Vertical Displacement - Sunday afternoon

  35. 500m Black and Organic C - Monday afternoon

  36. 500m PM2.5 - Monday afternoon

  37. 500m CO - Monday afternoon

  38. 500m O3 - Monday afternoon

  39. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Monday afternoon

  40. 500m Vertical Displacement - Monday afternoon

  41. 500m Black and Organic C - Tuesday afternoon

  42. 500m PM2.5 - Tuesday afternoon

  43. 500m CO - Tuesday afternoon

  44. 500m O3 - Tuesday afternoon

  45. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Tuesday afternoon

  46. 500m Vertical Displacement - Tuesday afternoon

  47. Sulphate Large Scale Transport

  48. 500m SO4 - Saturday afternoon

  49. 500m SO4 - Sunday afternoon

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