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CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast. Prepared  Saturday 29 May 2010. Anticipated Platform Activities. WP-3D  Saturday: evening-night flight, 7 pm takeoff    Sunday: night-early am flight, 10 PM takeoff NOAA Twin Otter: CIRPAS Twin Otter:  NASA King Air: R/V Atlantis:

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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Saturday 29 May 2010

  2. Anticipated Platform Activities WP-3D  Saturday: evening-night flight, 7 pm takeoff    Sunday: night-early am flight, 10 PM takeoff NOAA Twin Otter: CIRPAS Twin Otter:  NASA King Air: R/V Atlantis:     Saturday: LA bight, Sat am off Palos Verdes

  3. Local Features  Saturday night:  Build up of concentrations in Southern SJV and LA Basin for contrast of emission mixes and chemistry, weak outflow from SJV to SE deserts;  LA bight contrast in marine layer vs 700mb trajectories and concentrations, see winds at 700 mb & sfc and LA plume at 4 sigma levels. Ozone 1,600' elev. Catalina Isle: http://tbsys.serveftp.net/Catalina/ Sunday night:  Continued stagnation Sun am, but pm sea breeze will reestablish.  Similar Sun night target in LA bight as on Sat Contrast of chemical compositions for late Sunday (e.g., 23 PDT -  COAMPS) outflows from SJV and LA Basin into E Deserts  Early Next week: Weak trough.    Late Next week: Uncertain as GFS predicts 500 mb ridge builds but ECMWF predicts continued influence from a somewhat deeper and slower trough with zonal flow through Thursday.

  4. Saturday May 29•    High Pressure Ridge building over the west•    Transport flow turns more Northwesterly •    Strong northwesterly surface gradients in the N. CA•    Strong Offshore gradients for SoCal coastSunday May 30•    Ridge flattens as weak trof approaches from the north•    Westerly transport flow•    Weaker surface onshore flow in north weaker offshore in southMonday May 31 •    Weak PacNW trough over N CA•    Transport flow turns W/SWTuesday June 1 •    Zonal flow•    Transport flow turns W/NW Synoptic Overview for California

  5. Analysis – 00Z Friday

  6. Analysis - 00Z Saturday

  7. 12 hour - 12Z Saturday

  8. 24 hour - 00Z Sunday

  9. 36 hour - 12Z Sunday

  10. 48 hour - 00Z Monday

  11. 60 hour – 12 Z Monday

  12. 3 day – 00Z Tuesday

  13. GFS ECMWF 3 day – 00Z Tuesday

  14. 4 day – 00 Z Wednesday GFS ECMWF

  15. 5 day – 00 Z Thursday GFS ECMWF

  16. 6 day – 00z Friday GFS ECMWF

  17. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Sat, May 29th

  18. San Joaquin Valley Saturday May 29 Surface Winds: The surface observations this morning show NW flow in the northern and central SJV, with stronger conditions in the north, and variable conditions in the southern SJV. The wind profilers in the SJV show the same NW conditions above the surface, except for Tracy which shows a S flow. CANSAC shows NW flow in the northern SJV as well as the west side of the Valley, with calmer conditions in the central and south. Wind flow decreases as the day progresses. A light outflow out of the southern SJV via Tehachapi pass is predicted by the evening. Boundary Layer Mixing: The wind profilers indicate a slight to no temperature inversion across the SJV.CANSAC indicates that mixing should improve to 3,500 feet throughout most portions of the SJV by the afternoon. Air Quality: Good to Moderate air quality is expected across the SJV. Sunday May 30 Surface Winds: CANSAC shows typical downsloping into the SJV off of the Sierras in the early morning hours due to more stable conditions. Light NW flow expected throughout the SJV as the day progresses. Evening hours again shows a light outflow out of the southern SJV via Tehachapi pass. Boundary Layer Mixing: CANSAC shows that mixing conditions slightly worse than Saturday, with an improvement up to 2,500 feet across most parts of the SJV. Air Quality: Moderate air quality is expected across most of the SJV, with possible USG.

  19. San Joaquin Valley Monday May 31 Surface Winds: CANSAC shows typical inflow into the SJV via Altamont and Pacheco Passes, with NW flow increasing slightly as the day progresses. Dowsloping in the morning is not projected to be as pronounced as it was for early Sunday morning. Boundary Layer Mixing: CANSAC shows that mixing should improve to 3,500 feet throughout most of the SJV by the afternoon. Air Quality: Expected to be mostly Moderate throughout the SJV, with possible USG. Tuesday and Wednesday June 1-2 Surface Winds: GFS shows surface winds to be predominately from the NW, with a weak trough moving through the area on Tuesday. Boundary Layer Mixing: Mixing conditions should improve on Tuesday due to passing system, but stabilize again starting on Wednesday forward. Air Quality: Expected to be mostly Moderate throughout the SJV, with air quality deteriorating towards the end of the week. This could result in the first major ozone episode for the SJV this year. *Potential Targets for next Flight Day* For Saturday or Sunday evenings, the air exchange from the southern SJV into the Kern desert over the Tehachapi Pass might be a good feature to capture.

  20. Southern Coastal Waters

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