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The Influence of El Nino on Hurricanes in the North American Region

The Influence of El Nino on Hurricanes in the North American Region. Allison Roy Geography 184. Objective. Assess the effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation on Hurricanes in the East Pacific and West Atlantic Basins

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The Influence of El Nino on Hurricanes in the North American Region

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  1. The Influence of El Nino on Hurricanes in the North American Region Allison Roy Geography 184

  2. Objective • Assess the effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation on Hurricanes in the East Pacific and West Atlantic Basins • Look at the relationship between hurricane landfall and the adjustment of trade winds Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association

  3. El Nino Southern Oscillation Phenomenon Source: www.weathersa.co.za/References/elnino.jsp

  4. Approach • DATA: 1997 El Nino hurricane season & 2005 neutral hurricane season shapefiles (from NOAA’s Costal Services Center website), World Geodatabase (from Amelia Earhart Lab) • ANALYSIS: Identity Function intersection of input & identity, hurricane tracks given length attribute from countries • RESULTS: Excel used to manipulate data into tables: - Total Landfall - Selected Attributes: Highest Wind Speed, Lowest Pressure, Duration

  5. Results 1997 El Nino hurricane season: 18 storms, 5 hit Mexico or US

  6. Results 2005 neutral hurricane season: 30 storms, 15 hit 9 countries

  7. Results Above: Landfall distances in Kilometers of 1997 Hurricanes Below: Landfall distances in Kilometers of 2005 Hurricanes

  8. 1997 Season Strongest wind speed:160 kts Weakest wind speed: 35 kts Lowest Pressure: 902 mb Highest Pressure: 1005 mb Longest Lifetime: 25 days Shortest Lifetime: 3 days 2005 Season Strongest wind speed: 160 kts Weakest wind speed: 35 kts Lowest Pressure: 882 mb Highest Pressure: 1005 mb Longest Lifetime: 17 days Shortest Lifetime: 2 days Results Source: www.calculateme.com

  9. Results • 1997 Average Highest Wind Speed: 76.9 kts • 2005 Average Highest Wind Speed: 74.5 kts • 1997 Average Lowest Pressure: 974.8 mb • 2005 Average Lowest Pressure: 976 mb • 1997 Average Duration: 7.8 days • 2005 Average Duration: 7.56 days Source: NOAA

  10. Sources of Error • Lack of supporting evidence (no extensive observation of an ENSO event before 1997) • Unusually active 2005 hurricane season • Error associated with projection Hurricane Katrina Source: NOAA

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