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Overview of CPC and The Winter Outlook

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November, 2010. Overview of CPC and The Winter Outlook. Outline. Ongoing CPC Activities La Niña Winter Outlook. CPC Mission.

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Overview of CPC and The Winter Outlook

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  1. Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November, 2010 Overview of CPC and The Winter Outlook

  2. Outline • Ongoing CPC Activities • La Niña • Winter Outlook

  3. CPC Mission We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. • National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products Temperature Outlook

  4. Climate Prediction Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Monthly ENSO Prediction • Tools used to develop prediction products • Dynamical Models • Statistical Models • Historical Analogs • Historical Composites • * Dynamical Models • Climate Forecast System • Global Forecast System • ECMWF

  5. 6-10 Day Outlook Seasonal Washington Below: 32% Near: 36% Above: 32% Maine Below: 33% Near: 33% Above: 33% C. Texas Below: 17% Near: 33% Above: 50% N N S. Nevada Below: 7% Near: 33% Above: 60%

  6. Drought Outlook

  7. Climate Monitoring Products Daily and monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters and compilation of data on historical and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) Storm Tracks and Blocking Monsoons Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

  8. Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 -1.4ºC Niño 3.4 -1.5ºC Niño 3 -0.8ºC Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

  9. Drought Monitor • Outside Experts: • USGS • State Climos • RCCs • NWS Hydros • Interagency • Partners: • NWS/CPC • USDA/JAWF • NDMC • NCDC Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning TV Stations Newspapers Public Government officials

  10. Climate Assessment Products Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts; issued on a routine basis Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection

  11. ENSO Diagnostics Discussion(State of Tropical Pacific) • La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.

  12. Hazards Assessment

  13. Training Coverage in Africa Selected Other Climate Services at CPC • Joint Agriculture Weather Facility • USDA – DOC partnership • Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin • Briefings & Weather Summaries on global weather and crop conditions • CPC International Desks • Professional development training to African Meteorologists • WMO partnership for regional and global activities • Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan • Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring • Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network

  14. Applied Climate Research (Science and Service Integration)

  15. La Niña and Seasonal Outlook

  16. Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 4 -1.2ºC Niño 3.4 -1.3ºC Niño 3 -1.5ºC Niño 1+2 -2.0ºC

  17. Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (oC) in the Equatorial Pacific • Since May 2010, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dominated the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. • The most recent pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies is similar to those observed since mid September 2010. Time Most recent pentad analysis Longitude

  18. Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook • Nearly all models indicate that La Niña (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies -0.5°C or less) will persist at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. Just over half of the models indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere early Winter 2010-11. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 November 2010).

  19. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 November 2010 The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Niña conditions into Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.

  20. U. S. Seasonal OutlooksDecember 2010 - February 2011 Temperature Precipitation The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.

  21. U. S. Drought Outlookvalid through February 2011

  22. U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

  23. U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.

  24. U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Mar. - May

  25. Temperature and Precipitation Distribution Extreme Events + http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php Realm of most Common events MEAN Extreme Events - many few # EVENTS

  26. December – February Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Southern GA/Northern FL Strong tilt toward warm and dry Box-Whisker Web Page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

  27. January – March Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Southern GA/Northern FL Box-Whisker Web Page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

  28. March-May Precipitation and Temperature Distribution Southern GA/Northern FL Box-Whisker Web Page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php

  29. Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters

  30. CPC Consolidation

  31. Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed • Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office • Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities • Mission • To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services • Research to Operations (R2O) • Operations to Research (O2R) • Focus Areas • CFS Improvements • Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems • Climate Forecast Products • Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series • CPC/CTB - RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

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