SMART Sustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone

1. SUMER SMARTSustainable Management of Scarce Resources in the Coastal Zone Comparative Analysis of the Individual Case Study results – Gediz River Basin(WP10) 10–14 February 2004 Aqaba, JORDAN

2. SUMER Objectives of WP10 • To identify similarities and differences and relate them to the specific regional settings; • To identify more generally applicable results that are invariant across the case studies; • To organize these results in terms of a comparative policy assessment and best practice examples.

3. SUMER IDENTIFYING VARIABLES • Independent from water policy decisions (demographic and economic trends, meteorological conditios) • Directly dependent on water policy decisions (technological options and water allocation rules) INSUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY

4. SUMER QUANTIFYING CRITICAL RATES OF CHANGE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION • Determination of crucial rates that could lead from the current situation (baseline scenario) to a bad or good situation (pessimistic / optimistic scenario). Variables/driving forces Baseline Business As Usual Optimistic Pessimistic

5. Variables/driving forces Baseline BAU Optimistic pessimistic Birth control existing Existing (partially successful) Existing (successful) Existing (unsuccessful) Urban growth rate 923 000 1.5 %/y 1 %/y 3 %/y Rural growth rate 704 000 - 1 % /y -1 % /y -2 % /y Precipitation rate 700 mm/y 0 % 0% -40% Groundwater supply 9 mm/y 0 % 0 % - 40% Surface water supply 59 mm/y 0 % 0 % - 40% Groundwater pollution Class IV Class IV Class III Class IV Basin-out water supply(surface&groundwater) 0.2 mm/y 0.2 mm/y 0.4 mm/y 0.5 mm/y Domestic water use 7.4 mm/y 0% 0.5 %/y 2.5 %/y Industrial water use (groundwater) 3 mm/y 0% 4%/y 8%/y Irrigation water use 39 mm/y 0%/y - 20% 15% Domestic water supply investments sufficient sufficient sufficient insufficient Change in crop pattern Cotton, grape, corn Cotton, grape, corn Grape, vegetable,corn Cotton, grape Irrig. m&o investments insufficient insufficient Sufficient insufficient Loss rate in irrigation system 30 % 30 % 10% 30% Irrigated area 1070 km2 0% 0% 0% Industrial water use (surface water) 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 4 mm Surface water quality Class IV Class IV Class III Class IV Water exploitation awareness Insufficient awareness Insufficient awareness Comprehensive awareness Insufficient awareness

6. Immigration from rural to urban areas Insufficient Maintenance&Operation Population Growth Basin-out water supply Over Exploitation of Groundwater for irrigation Increase in Urban Population No new investment for Irrigation Water Conveyance Systems Low Precipitation Increase in Irrigated Area Insufficient Financial Status for Domestic Water Supply Infrastructure Investments Groundwater Pollution Change in Crop Pattern No new investment for better irrigation methods Increase in irrigation water pricing Surface Water Pollution Increase in Industrial Ground & Surface Water Use High irrigation water loss INCREASE IN DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND INCREASE IN IRRIGATION WATER DEMAND INSUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY

7. SUMER QUANTIFYING CRITICAL RATES OF CHANGE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION - MANAGEMENT, SOCIAL PLANNING & POLICIES • Determination of crucial rates for social planning and management policies that could lead from the current situation (baseline scenario) to a bad or good situation (pessimistic / optimistic scenario). Variables/driving forces Baseline Business As Usual Optimistic Pessimistic

8. VARIABLES/DRIVING FORCES BASELINE BAU OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC Urbanization 923 000 1.5%/y 1%/y 3%/y Land use Planning Lack of coordination among institutions; no sanctions for violations of plan Same as baseline Available land use plan, high coordination among institutes during decision making process, dissuasive and executable sanctions. Same as baseline • National agricultural policies • Subsidies • Production planning • Agricultural infrastructure policy • Efficient marketing policies Exists in codes and agenda nation-wide, but not properly applicable to the basin 1. Subsidies are given for some crops (i.e. grape, cotton, maize), direct income support for farmers (120 Euro/ha) 2. No production planning for basin 3. Insufficient funds for infrastructure improvements. Sustainable and equitable agricultural policy. Sufficient funds for infrastructure improvements. Encouragement for alternative crops. Removal of subsidies Same as BAU National environmental policies and programs Existing nation and basin-wide action plan Some problems in implementation; i.e. Provincial Directorate Of Ministry Of Forestry And Environment has control authorization for facilities, but not enough power to execute fines. Proper application of environmental action plan; -strong NGOs,comprehensive public awareness, -no support for artificial fertilizers, pesticides and insecticides, -proper solid waste management Same as BAU Water management policies (Allocation and distribution) Existing Applicable clear rules for water allocation and distribution Same as BAU General concepts and priorities are clear, but existing major problems in application Flood & Drought control policies Existing flood prevention policy, no available for drought “flood early warning system” (TEFER) Flood & Drought prevention action plan Same as baseline