Impact Assessment Implementation Progress of WENS Shanghai, September 22, 2010

1. Impact Assessment Implementation Progress of WENS Shanghai, September 22, 2010

2. Outline 1. Review on Implementation Plan 2. Progress before Oct 2010 3. Next plans

3. Review on Implementation Plan • WENS End-Users • Goals and Targets • Methods and Phases

4. 1. 1 WENS End-Users WENS End-users Direct End-users Indirect --- Set I Set II Set III Set IV Set V • . Weather sensitive company users • e.g. Electric Power Corp. (Case study for economic benefit ), Water Transportation Corp. • Weather Sensitive governments • e.g. • Emergency Response, • Flood Control headquarters • Aviation departments • All SMB weather • operational • technicians. • Chief and associate forecasters, • WENS champions, forecasters, • Forecasters from • Expo Weather • Center • Service personnel • Local population • Tourists • (Focus on Meteo.Pavilion, Scenic spots) • Operational departments of • Expo Park. Set I • Standards for Different Types and Sets • characteristic of WENS products available to the users, • (b) familiarity and experience on weather information in decision-making.

5. 1.2 Goals & Targets Goals for forecasters Impact Assessment： • Identify the operational benefits brought by WENS depending on several assessment methods; • Identify WENS’ role in nowcasting based on survey results; • Improve and utilize the existing or updated nowcasting weather products/services; • Obtain new understanding and knowledge of the nowcasting weather service by the active interaction between the participating systems and the local forecasters.

6. 1.2 Goals & Targets Goals for Social End-users Impact Assessment • Users’ weather service requirements better understood; • Better access to customer-tailored products/service; • A better knowledge & understanding of weather service/products through WENS project; • Improvement of nowcasting lead time & forecast accuracy supported by WENS, better social/economic benefits, and higher CSI especially in Expo weather service. ‘‘cake”

7. Benefit? CSI ? CSI ? Benefit ? CSI? Benefit ? CSI? 1. 3 Methods and Phases WENS Impact Assessment Methods Key users Government/company Forecasters Service personnel Public/tourists • Interviews • Expert workshops • Case study • Questionnaires • Workshop • Interviews • Routine assessment • Serial assessment • Web-delivery • Questionnaires • Interviews • Random samples • Service Panel assessment • Products with WENS vs. Those without WENS

8. Methods for Forecasters • Routine Operations Assessment • Serial Forecast Assessment • Weather Consultation & Results Comparison

9. < Serial Forecast Assessment> < Why?> Forecaster • Same forecaster • Same experience • Same background • Same convective weather • Same………. • Single-element difference • Same story! • Service official • Governments • Expo operation Strengths Forecast result No. 1 Routine Products Difference? Daily Logo keeping WENS Products Forecast result No. 2 WENS’ contribution?

10. Methods for key Users Qualitative assessment methods Interviews, workshops, Questionnaires WENS benefit Expo Operation User samples Social Benefit WENS Impact Assessment Government Economic Benefit Company users Expert Assessment Methods Quantitative assessment methods

11. Customer Expectations Customer Complaints Customer Satisfaction Perceived Value Perceived Quality CustomerLoyalty Methods for Public/tourists Survey CSI Model： Structural Modeling American Customer Satisfaction Index（ACSI）,1994

12. Satisfaction Questionnaires path diagram Accuracy directive Lead time Caution Contents popularization of science Achieve Channels Different backgrounds Factor/main constituent

13. 1. 3Methods and Phases Three-Phase Survey for Forecasters Phase I：Pre-EXPO baseline evaluation (Before June 2009) Phase II：WENS Run Period (Jun-Oct 2010) Phase III：After WENS Run Period (Oct 2010 later)

14. Results show 2. Progress before Oct 2010 • Achievements in forecaster surveys • Achievements in key end-users surveys • Achievements in public/tourists surveys

15. Value Objective forecast products Forecaster factors Observation data Forecast system diagnostic tool Nowcasting numerical forecast operation flow 2.1 Review on First-phaseForecaster Surveys Requirement for Nowcasting operational systems

16. Requirement for observation data Value wind profile Satellite digital data Lightning location Routine data Radar data Automatic station GPS/PWV Water vapour Disaster data

17. Requirement for forecast system and diagnostic tools Value Nowcasting systems Radar locationg Display and diagnostic system Data display function GIS information overlay

18. Requirement for objective forecast products Value tracing prediction of thunderstorm cell Disaster weather forecast tendency prediction of Radar echo

19. Important intensity about operation flow Value severe convective weather outlook Find earlier Zone defense

20. Satisfaction of nowcast level Unsatisfaction Satisfaction Value Forecast prescription Multi agent cooperation

21. Results show 2.2 Achievements in key end-users surveys before Oct 2010 2.2 .1Review on Key End-users First-phase Surveys

22. Results show 2.2 .1Review on Key End-users First-phase Surveys Requirements on Severe Convective Weather

23. Results show 2.2 .1Review on Key End-users First-phase Surveys Expectations on Weather Contents & Channels

24. 2.2 .2Review on Key End-users second-phase Surveys Cases evaluate

25. 2.3 Achievements in public/tourists surveys before Oct 2010

26. Nowcasting forecast Accuracy evaluate

30. 3. Next Plans • Analyse questionaires of forecasters in Expro. Identify the operational benefits brought by WENS depending on several assessment methods . • Continue the Key users (Government/company) assessment,especially case study(Electric Power Corp). • Use SEM Analyse the data of public/tourists surveys , get the relationship between each variable. According to model, we can analyze nowcasting and know customer requirements and demands in order to improve the quality of our service.

31. Thank you !