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Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points

Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points . Alexey Gromov PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy . « EU-Russia cooperation: Energy and Climate Changes » October, 23, 2009 Moscow.

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Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030: Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points

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  1. Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030:Approaches, Priorities and Reference Points Alexey Gromov PhD in Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy «EU-Russia cooperation: Energy and Climate Changes» October, 23, 2009 Moscow

  2. Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years 2009-2030 Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020 ES-2030 General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030 General scheme of allocation of power generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year 2030 State program of energy saving Eastern Gas Program Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation Program of long-term development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Far East Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far East Investment programs of energy companies 2

  3. Aim and Goals of the ES-2030 Innovative and efficient energy development Aim Stable institutional environment in the energy sector Modernization and construction of new energy infrastructure Goals Energy and ecological efficiency of the national economy and energy sector Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and processing of energy resources Further integration of the Russian energy sector into the global energy system Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable despite consequences of the global economic crisis 3

  4. Forecasted Change of the Fuel and Energy Complex’s Role in the Russian economy 2030 2005 Energy sector in GDP Energy sector’s export in GDP Energy resources in export Investment in energy sector in total investment 4

  5. Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP and Domestic Demand for Primary Energy Resources 5

  6. Key priorities in the Russian energy sector Energy Security Energy Efficiency Economic Efficiency Ecological Security 6

  7. Energy security Strategic indicators 7

  8. Energy efficiency of the economy Strategic indicators 8

  9. Economicefficiency of the energy sector Strategic aim: Efficient relationship between government and energy business Principles and mechanisms of realization Creation of favorable economic environment Support of strategic initiatives Optimization of tax burden Development of the insurance system of long-term investments’ risks Rationalization of amortization policy Formation of united leasing companies Perfection of state price (tariff) regulations in the sphere of natural monopolies Support of small and medium-scale business in FEC Completion of liberalization processes in power generation Stimulation of modernization and innovative development of FEC System of prospective regulations, standards and norms Perfection of license policy, elimination of inadequate administrative barriers Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuff’s skills in FEC Strategic indicators of economic (budget) efficiency of FEC 9

  10. Ecological securityof the energy sector Strategic indicators Forecasted dynamics of СО2-emissions 10

  11. Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic off-shore Non-fuel energy Energy saving 11

  12. Energy infrastructure: development and diversification OIL NATURAL GAS • Baltic Pipeline System - 2 – 50 mln. т/y • North Stream – 55 bln. cub. m/y • Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean – 80 mln. т/y • South Stream – 30 bln. cub. m/y 12

  13. Development of oil and gas complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to satisfy the domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of export 13

  14. Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources of New Regions (including Arctic offshore) Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia Shift in oil extraction in Russia new regions new regions 14

  15. Non-fuel energy Forecasted development of renewable power generation Priority development: POWER GENERATION Nuclear Hydro Renewable Putting into operation installed capacity of 23-33 GWt will increase the share of renewable energy in power generation from 0,5 to 4,5% 15

  16. Energy Saving Expected results of energy saving and increase in energy efficiency in Russia Potential of energy saving in Russia is estimated at level of 45%of the current consumption of energy resources Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln. kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal and 45 mln t of oil and oil products 1 Improvement in competitiveness of national economy under conditions of growing tariffs for energy resources 2 Consumption of energy resources can be reduced by: Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural gas: 84-112 bln. USD 3 20% in heat supply 30% in power generation 40% in industry and transportation 50% in living apartments Decrease in governmental expanses: 3-5 bln. USD 4 Reduction in CO2 –emissions: 790 mln t/y Improvement in ecological situation in the country 5 16

  17. MECHANISMS 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE POLITICS State Energy Policy in Russia Key priorities' realization Rational market environment Advanced standards and regulations Prospective state of Russian FEC Strategic initiatives Energy security Management of state property Energy efficiency of economy Development of home energy markets Formation of rational energy balance Subsoil resources management Economic efficiency of FEC Regional energy policy External energy policy Social policy in the energy sector Ecological security of FEC Scientific, technical and innovative policy KEY PRIORITIES 17

  18. Export of primary energy resources up to 2030 18

  19. Forecasted dynamics and structure of oil and oil products export Forecast of oil and oil products export Strategic directions of external energy policy Diversification of the commodity composition of export Diversification of the directions of export Support of Russian energy companies (from upstream to downstream) abroad Stimulation of transit flows of oil through the Russian territory Formation of new Russian marker oil brand REBCO and promotion of its international trade 19

  20. Forecasted dynamics and structure of Russian gas export Forecast of gas export Strategic directions of external energy policy Diversification of export directions Support of Russian energy companies (from upstream to downstream) abroad Import of natural gas from Central Asia and its re-export to the CIS mainly Production and transportation of LNG. Expansion into the new markets: the USA and Asia-Pacific 20

  21. Forecast of investment in energy sector and energy supply of the national economy for the year of 2030 24-32% of investment in FEC will be directed in power generation, 22-26% - in oil industry, 21-24% - in gas industryand 3% - in coal industry. The sphere of energy supply will receive 22-23% of investment, forecasted in ES-2030 21

  22. Expected results of ES-2030 24

  23. Thank you for your attention! 25

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