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Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets. Chapter. 9. Stages of Economic Development. 1. The Traditional Society 2. The Pre Conditions for Take-off 3. The Take-Off 4. The Drive to Maturity 5. The Age of High Mass Consumption. 9-2. SOURCES: Walt W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth 2d ed.

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Emerging Markets

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  1. Emerging Markets Chapter 9

  2. Stages of Economic Development 1. The Traditional Society 2. The Pre Conditions for Take-off 3. The Take-Off 4. The Drive to Maturity 5. The Age of High Mass Consumption 9-2 SOURCES: Walt W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth 2d ed. (London: Cambridge University Press, 1971), p.10. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  3. United Nations Economic Development System More-Developed Countries (MDC) 9-3 Less-Developed Countries (LDC) Least-Developed Countries (LLDC) Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  4. Newly Industrialized Countries Growth Factors  Political Stability  Economic and Legal Reforms  Entrepreneurship  Central Planning  Outward Orientation  Factors of Production  Industries Targeted for Growth  Financial Incentives  Privatized State-Owned Enterprises  Large, Accessible Markets  Low Tariffs 9-4 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  5. Highways* Railways Trucks Electricity (paved km) (km) and Buses Production Country (000) (000) in Use (000) (kwh per head) United States 6,243.2 214.3 49,259 13,696 Brazil 1,670.1 22.1 2,540 1,925 Japan 1,115.6 26.5 21,392 8,182 Colombia 12.6 3.3 4,154 1,147 Germany 618.2 43.9 3,174 6,680 Kenya 8.3 2.7 110 105 Mexico 242.3 26.5 3,773 1,898 Spain 318.0 15.3 3,360 4,728 India 1,100.0 62.4 2,567 485 South Africa 55.4 21.4 1,853 5,020 China 170.0 58.3 3,591 946 *Includes unpaved and paved. Infrastructure of Selected Countries 9-5 SOURCES: For additional information, see International Marketing Data and Statistics, 19997 (London: Euromonitor Pulications, 1997); and “Indicators of Market Size for 115 countries, “ Country Monitor, December 25, 2000. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  6. Common Traits of Big Emerging Markets  Are physically large.  Have significant populations.  Represent considerable markets for a wide range of products.  Have strong rates of growth or the potential for significant growth.  Have undertaken significant programs of economic reform.  Are of major political importance within their regions.  Are "Regional Economic Drivers".  Will engender further expansion in neighboring markets as they grow. 9-6 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  7. Big Emerging Markets Population GDP GDP Trade* (millions) ($ billions) (per capita) ($ billions) AsiaASEAN^ 434.8 $666.0 $ 15,317 $ 1,294.8CEA (Chinese Economic Area)‡ 1,205.0 1,374.6 1,141 1,109.0India 10,028.0 437.2 458 63.3South Korea 43.7 476.0 10,063 280.5 Latin AmericaMexico 97.4 486.1 4,992 328.4 Argentina 35.7 283.1 7,740 53.6 Brazil 158.6 551.8 3,305 108.6 AfricaSouth Africa 41.4 147.8 3,570 59.4 EuropePoland 38.7 135.3 3,500 26.4Turkey 58.6 189.2 3,027 63.4 Possible AdditionsColombia 41.6 91.5 2,201 24.9Venezuela 23.7 102.1 4,307 40.9 9-7 * Imports and exports. ^ASEAN includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. ‡CEA consists of the provinces of Southern China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. SOURCES: For additional information, see “indicators of Market Size for 115 countries, ” Country Monitor. December 25, 2000. “Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, 1999. International Monetary Fund, 2000, and visit www.stat-usa.gov/bems/bemschi/bemschi.html/. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  8. GREENLAND (DENMARK) Alaska (United States) CANADA Montreal Toronto UNITED STATES Detroit San Francisco Chicago Los Angeles Dallas Miami MEXICO CUBA HAITI GUATEMALA JAMAICA Hawaii (United States) HONDURAS GUYANA SURINAME FRENCH GUIANA VENEZUELA ST. SALVADOR COLOMBIA NICARAGUA COSTA RICA BRAZIL PANAMA PERU ECUADOR Belo Horizonte BOLIVIA Rio de Janeiro PARAGUAY Sao Paulo URUGUAY PACIFIC OCEAN CHILE ARGENTINA Buenos Aires The Americas 9-8 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  9. Economic and Social Data for Selected Countries Consumer Spending Hospital Number Literacy Tourism Food Percent Clothing Percent Beds per of (Percent) Receipts ($ million) of ($ million)** of (000s) Doctors ($ million)** Country Total* Total* Population 9-9 United States $ 741,340 18.1% $221,800 5.4% 5.1 560,300 99.5% $45,579 Argentina 16,952 38.8% 2,332 5.3% 5.3 96,000 93.9% 2,336 Brazil 81,934 31.2% 12,799 4.9% 3.5 169,488 77.8% 1,559 Colombia 9,264 35.2% 1,597 6.1% 1.5 29,353 85.2% 410 Mexico 57,900 33.7% 12,066 7.0% 0.7 130,000 87.6 % 4,355 Venezuela 15,501 43.2% 3,679 10.2% 2.6 *28,400 84.7% 36.5 * Percent of all consumer spending. ** In U.S. dollars, basis 1988. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  10. ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA POLAND CZECHREPUBLIC SLOVAKIA SLOVENIA HUNGARY ROMANIA BOSNIA ANDHERCEGOVINA CROATIA BULGARIA YUGOSLAVIA MACEDONIA ALBANIA GREECE TURKEY Eastern Europe and the Baltic States Gulf of Finland BalticSea 9-10 BlackSea Adriatic Sea TyrmenianSea AegeanSea Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  11. Eastern European Markets Population GDP GDP Exports Imports (millions) ($ billions) ($ per capita) ($ millions) ($ millions) Albania 3.28 $ 2.7 $ 820 $ 80 $ 147 Bosnia/Herzegovina (*) 2.66 0.8 300 NA NA Bulgaria 9.00 10.1 1,220 4,303 3,271 Croatia (*) 4.78 26.3 5,600 4,633 7,582 Czech Republic(**) 10.30 52.0 5,050 14,575 16,284 Hungary 10.30 45.7 4,505 19,100 15,224 Macedonia(*) 2.05 4.8 2,400 1,244 1,420 Poland 38.40 135.3 3,500 25,751 42,307 Romania 22.80 34.8 1,544 8,385 10,131 Slovakia(**) 5.27 20.7 1,763 12,063 13,003 9-11 (*) Former republics of Yugoslavia. (**) Former republics of Czechoslovakia. Sources: “Indicators of Market Size for 115 Countries,” Country Monitor, December 25, 2000; and International Trade Statistics yearbook (New York: United Nationa, 2999). Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  12. N. K0REA JAPAN MONGOLIA S. K0REA CHINA TAIWAN BHUTAN NEPAL Hong Kong MYANMAR INDIA LAOS PHILIPPINES PAKISTAN VIETNAM BANGLADESH CAMBODIA BRUNEI MALAYSIA THAILAND SRI LANKA SINGAPORE INDONESIA INDIAN OCEAN Asia 9-12 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  13. Asian Markets - Selected Countries Population GDP GDP Exports Imports (millions) ($ billions) ($ per capita) ($ millions) ($ millions) Australia 18.5 $ 411.0 $ 22,000 $ 52,966 $ 61,347 China 1,230.1 917.7 746 148,755 132,007 Hong Kong 6.5 173.6 26,701 173,546 192,764 India 955.2 437.2 458 30,537 34,456 Indonesia 199.9 215.0 1,076 43,285 39,456 Japan 126.2 4,199.5 33,277 443,000 335,871 South Korea 46.0 476.0 10,361 125,365 135,153 Taiwan 21.5 283.3 13,000 111,837 103,652 9-13 SOURCES: “Indicators of Market Size for 115 Countries,” Country Monitor. December 25, 2000; and S.T.E.T. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  14. Capitalism with Chinese Characters Jiang Zemin’s Reform Agenda  Restructure state enterprises. SOEs account for about two-fifths of the industrial output but soak up four-fifths of investment.  Strengthen financial markets. Expand and ensure the integrity of capital markets.  Sell state assets. Sell off all but 1,000 of China’s 305,000 state enterprises and allow some to go bankrupt.  Build social services. Create housing, pension programs, and other services to relieve burdens on SOEs and to care for millions who may lose jobs.  Slash tariffs. Reduce average tariffs to 17 percent in 1997 and to 15 percent by 2000 as part of China’s bid to join the World Trade Organization. 9-14 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  15. India’s Five-Point Agenda • The improvement of the investment climate. • The development of a comprehensive WTO strategy. • The reformation of the agriculture, the food processing, and the small-scale industry. • The elimination of red tape • The institution of better corporate governance. 9-15 Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  16. Living Standards in Selected Countries Percent of Households Households Persons per Piped Flush Electric (000) Household Water Toilers Lighting Brazil 38,434 4.05 73% 76% 69% Chile 3,216 4.35 70% 59% 88% China 357,064 3.40 90% NA NA Colombia 8,482 4.14 76% 64% 87% Ecuador 2,626 4.36 52% 33% 62% Hong Kong 1,797 3.44 98% 80% 93% India 185,048 5.00 10% 5% 16% Indonesia 43,065 4.50 12% 15% 30% Japan 40,548 3.09 93% 65% 98% Peru 5,057 4.65 49% 43% 48% Philippines 12,750 5.37 NA NA NA Singapore 815 3.67 48% 42% 37% South Africa 13,300 3.37 96% 35% 90% United States 100,308 2.62 99% 99% 99% 9-16 SOURCES: For additional data, see Demographic Yearbook 1997 (New York: United Nations, 1997); and International Marketing Data Statistics, 18th ed. (London: Euromonitor Publications, 1997). Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  17. Which of the Following have you Purchased in the Past Three Months? Product Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent in in in in in in United Australia Brazil Germany Japan United States Kingdom 9-17 Soft drinks 96 90 93 83 91 94 Fast-food 94 94 91 70 86 85 Athletic footwear 59 40 54 33 30 49 Blue jeans 56 39 62 45 42 44 Beer* 46 50 60 46 57 57 Cigarettes* 24 33 30 38 39 40 * Among adults 18+. Source: Yankelovich Clancy Shulman. SOURCE: Nancy Giges, "Global Spending Patterns Emerge," Advertising Age, November 11, 1991, p. 64. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  18. Consumption Patterns in Selected Countries (percent of household expenditures) U.S. Germany Singapore Mexico Poland Iran Kenya Thailand India Food 10% 12% 19% 35% 29% 37% 38% 30% 52% Clothing 6% 7% 8% 10% 9% 9% 7% 16% 11% Gross rent 18% 18% 11% 8% 6% 23% 12% 7% 10% Medical care 14% 13% 7% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5% 3% Education 8% 6% 12% 5% 7% 5% 10% 5% 4% Transport/communications 14% 13% 13% 12% 8% 6% 8% 13% 7% Appliances/other durables 30% 31% 30% 25% 35% 14% 22% 24% 13% 9-18 SOURCE: For additional data, see Ricardo Sookdeo, "The New global consumer."Fortune, Autumn-Winter 1993, pp. 68-72. Irwin/McGraw-Hill

  19. Living Standards in Selected Countries Percent of Households Country Household Persons per Piped Flush Electric (000) Household Water Toilets Lighting Brazil 38,434 4.05 73% 76% 69% Chile 3,216 4.35 70% 59% 88% China 357,064 3.40 90% N/A N/A Colombia 8,482 4.14 76% 64% 87% Ecuador 2,626 4.36 52% 33% 62% Hong Kong 1,797 3.44 98% 80% 93% India 185,048 5.00 10% 5% 16% Indonesia 43,065 4.50 12% 15% 30% Japan 40,548 3.09 93% 65% 98% Peru 5,057 4.65 49% 43% 48% Philippines 12,750 5.37 NA N/A N/A Singapore 815 3.67 48% 42% 37% South Korea 13,300 3.37 96% 35% 90% United States 100,308 2.62 99% 99% 99% 9-19 SOURCE: Demographic Yearbook 1997 (New York: United Nation, 1997); and International Marketing Data and Statistics, 1997 (London: Euromonitor Publication, 1997) Irwin/McGraw-Hill

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