1 / 26

3Q 2009

This document provides an outlook on the global capital markets, discussing the signs of economic recovery, risks and challenges, and opportunities for stock pickers and credit markets.

Télécharger la présentation

3Q 2009

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. 3Q 2009 Global Capital Markets Outlook The Road to Recovery Hayden Briscoe Director―Australian Fixed Income This document is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security or other instrument, or for AllianceBernstein to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information herein reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgments as of the date of the presentation, which are subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any purpose without the consent of AllianceBernstein. AllianceBernstein Australia Limited ABN 53 095 022 718 AFSL 230 698

  2. Important Information This document has been prepared by AllianceBernstein Australia Limited (“ABAL”)—ABN 53 095 022 718, AFSL 230 698. Information in this document is intended for wholesale investors only and is not to be construed as advice. This document is provided solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell securities. The information, forecasts and opinions set out in this document have not been prepared for any recipient's specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Neither this document nor the information contained in it are intended to take the place of professional advice. You should not take action on specific issues based on the information contained in the attached without first obtaining professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Projections, although based on current information, may not be realised. Information, forecasts and opinions can change without notice and ABAL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information at any particular time. Although care has been exercised in compiling the information contained in this document, ABAL does not warrant that this document is free from errors, inaccuracies or omissions. ABAL disclaims any liability for damage or loss arising from reliance upon any matter contained in this document except for statutory liability which cannot be excluded. No reproduction of the materials in this document may be made without the express written permission of ABAL. This information is provided for persons in Australia only and is not being provided for the use of any person who is in any other country.

  3. Introduction • The markets have responded to signs of economic recovery • We expect the recovery to begin modestly, because significant risks and challenges persist • Continued uncertainty means great opportunity for stock pickers and sizable return potential for credit markets

  4. International Review & Outlook

  5. Risk Aversion Has Declined but Remains Elevated Brian Lomax UPDATED 10/6 Global Risk Aversion Indicator WorldCom/Enron Long-Term Capital Management Sep 11 Today Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of 1 October 2009 Incorporates equity index-implied volatilities, bond spreads, currency index-implied volatilities and equity mutual fund flows Source: Bloomberg, Investment Company Institute and AllianceBernstein

  6. Global Financial Meltdown Is Likely Behind Us L: Allie Boxer Bloomberg and AB Updated 9/11 R: Sloane Barclays Capital Global agg-corp UPDATED 9/10 Interbank Cash Spreads* Global BBB Corporates Spreads vs. Government Bonds US Euro Japan Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of 30 September 2009 *US data are three-month LIBOR versus three-month US Treasury bills. Euro data are three-month LIBOR (in the respective currencies) versus overnight index swap (OIS). Japan data are three-month yen LIBOR versus generic three-month Japanese Treasury bills. Source: Barclays Capital, Bloomberg and AllianceBernstein

  7. Industrial Production Has Recovered as Companies Rebuild Inventories Schoregge updated 10/5 Title change per Carson Industrial Production Emerging Countries Global Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of 31 July 2009 Source: Haver Analytics and AllianceBernstein

  8. A Slowdown in Job Losses Typically Precedes Recovery Unemployment Rates US Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims Europe Recession US Japan Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of 30 September 2009 *Four-week moving average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, US Department of Labor and Haver Analytics 7 7

  9. 2010 Outlook Is Brighter, Though Still Modest by Historical Standards GDP Forecasts Colangelo UPDATED 10/5 Global Japan Euro Area US Emerging Countries • 2009F • 2010F Forecasts may not be attained. As of 1 October 2009 Source: AllianceBernstein

  10. Significant Fiscal Stimulus Remains in the Pipeline Left chart: Carson/Schoregge AB UPDATED 10/5 2009 Fiscal Stimulus* US Fiscal Stimulus Right chart: Ken Colangelo Recovery.gov Sources: CBO, Recovery accountability board; us fed agency, ab Updated 10/5 US$ Billions Budgeted Fiscal Stimulus is subject to change. As of 15 September 2009 *Includes increases in federal spending and tax cuts to individuals and businesses. Direct aid to specific firms or sectors is not included. **Includes realized tax cuts and amount paid out Source: Congressional Budget Office, Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, US federal agency financial and activity reports, and AllianceBernstein

  11. Fiscal Deficits Are Expected to Balloon Colangelo For US. OMB and AB. Updated 9/9 Darren for UK Updated 9/17 UK Office for national statistics haver Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit US Projected UK Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Projections may not come to pass. Actual data through fiscal-year 2008; US projections through fiscal-year 2019; UK projections through fiscal-year 2009 Source: Haver Analytics, Office of Management and Budget, UK Office for National Statistics and AllianceBernstein

  12. Colangelo Fed, BOE, ECB UPDATED 10/5 Japan did not experience the same massive Uptick Central Banks’ Balance Sheets Have Spiked Central Bank Balance Sheets US UK Euro Area Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. As of 30 September 2009 Source: Bank of England, European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve

  13. Inflation Moving Upwards But Not Threatening in the Near Term Global Consumer Price Inflation Emerging Market Countries Global Industrialized Countries Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Forecasts may not be attained. As of 1 October 2009 Source: Bloomberg, CPB Netherlands Bureau, Haver Analytics and AllianceBernstein

  14. Developed Consumers Restructure While EM Consumers Emerge R Mann Haver, Fed R updated 9/18 Carson for R forecasts AB Financial Obligations Ratio* Share of World GDP US (Left Scale) 20% EM 30% 31% US 24% Euro Area/UK 4Q:2010F 24% 27% UK (Right Scale) 15% Japan 8% 10% Other 11% Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left as of 30 June 2009. Right as of 31 December 2008. *Ratio of financial payments to disposable income. Financial obligations include mortgage and consumer debt payments, auto lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments, all expressed as a percentage of disposable income Source: Haver Analytics, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Federal Reserve, IMF and AllianceBernstein

  15. Stock Markets Always Recover From Setbacks Growth of MSCI World Index 1970–2009* Annualized Return: 8.5% 66% Past performance is no guarantee of future results. *Monthly returns data used 1 January 1970 through 30 September 2009 in left graph. Daily returns data used 31 October 2007 to 30 September 2009 in right graph. All returns in USD. Source: MSCI and AllianceBernstein

  16. Corporate Balance Sheets Are Generally Healthy and Profitability Is Likely to Rebound Brian Lomax Updated 10/6 Net Debt/Equity Ratio MSCI World* MSCI World ROE Average: 11.7% 7.2% Historical analysis does not guarantee future results. Left as of 31 December 2008. Right as of 30 September 2009. *Ex financials Source: MSCI, Morgan Stanley, Worldscope and AllianceBernstein

  17. Depressed Earnings Should Rebound in 2010 and 2011 MSCI World Operating Earnings per Share Ted Mann UPDATED 10/6 2011 Consensus Earnings Growth 23% Trend 2010 Consensus Earnings Growth 26% Past performance does not guarantee future results. Forecasts may not be attained. Actual earnings through 31 December 2008; 2009–2011 consensus estimates as of 30 September 2009 Source: FactSet, MSCI and AllianceBernstein

  18. Valuations Are Attractive Based on Forward Earnings Ted Mann UPDATED 9/17 Price to Forward Earnings MSCI World P/2009E P/2010E P/2011E Estimates are subject to change. As of 30 September 2009 Source: FactSet, MSCI, Thomson Reuters and AllianceBernstein

  19. Australian Review & Outlook

  20. Australia: Clearly at the Top of the League Table Unemployment Rate ConsumerConfidence Unemployment data through August 2009; Confidence through September 2009 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Datastream, Westpac 19 19

  21. Stimulatory Policy Clearly Having Traction….. Aggressive Rate Cuts Big Decline in Debt Servicing Burden = Interest Rates through September 2009, Servicing Burden through Q2 2009 Source: RBA, Australian Bureau of Statistics 20 20

  22. …In Supporting Growth Business Confidence Housing Finance Approvals Housing finance through August 2009, business confidence through September 2009 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Australia Bank 21 21

  23. Australian Inflation: Falling, But Still High Australian Inflation Indicators Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Through Q3 2009

  24. Signs of recovery are proliferating, but challenges remain Markets look fairly valued on 2009 earnings but should rise with 2010 and 2011 expectations Credit markets remain cheap Dislocation Creates Opportunity for Long-Term Investors • What are the fundamental prospects for the economy? • What is the opportunityin equities? • What is the opportunity in bonds?

  25. A Word About Risk Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment in any Fund will fluctuate as the prices of the individual securities in which they invest fluctuate, so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Value investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. Not all companies whose stocks are considered to be “value” stocks are able to turn their business around or successfully employ corrective strategies that would result in stock prices that rise as initially expected. Investments in foreign securities may magnify fluctuations due to changes in foreign exchange rates and the possibility of substantial volatility due to political and economic uncertainties in foreign countries. Because a Fund may invest in emerging markets and in developing countries, an investment also has the risk that market changes or other factors affecting emerging markets and developing countries, including political instability and unpredictable economic conditions, may have a significant effect on a Fund's net asset value. Investing in non-US securities may be more volatile because of political, regulatory, market and economic uncertainties associated with such securities. These risks are magnified in securities of emerging or developing markets. While a Fund may invests principally in common stocks and other equity securities, in order to achieve its investment objectives, a Fund may at times use certain types of investment derivatives, such as options, futures, forwards and swaps. These instruments involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by more traditional investments. These risks are fully discussed in each Fund’s prospectus. 24 24

  26. Index Descriptions Standard & Poor's Index (S&P 500) Widely regarded as the best single gauge of the US equities market, this world-renowned index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. Although the S&P 500 focuses on the large-cap segment of the market, with over 80% coverage of US equities, it is also an ideal proxy for the total market. The S&P 500 is part of a series of US indices that can be used as building blocks for portfolio construction. With close to $1 trillion in indexed assets, the S&P US indices have earned a reputation for being not only leading market indicators, but also investable portfolios designed for cost efficient replication or the creation of index-linked products. MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. As of June 2007, the MSCI Europe Index consisted of the following 16 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index is a market capitalization–weighted index that measures the performance of stock markets in 23 countries. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index is a free float–adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. It consists of 26 emerging market country indices. TOPIX Index measures stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). Following is a description of the indices referred to in this presentation. It is important to recognize that all indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses associated with the active management of a mutual fund portfolio. Investors cannot invest directly in an index, and its performance does not reflect the performance of any AllianceBernstein mutual fund. 25

More Related