1 / 17

2012 LTPP Updates

2012 LTPP Updates. Generation & Transmission Planning Section Nat Skinner, Patrick Young California Public Utilities Commission 12/10/2012. LTPP Overview. Biennial planning process Determines rules and guidelines for utility procurement and cost recovery

kfelton
Télécharger la présentation

2012 LTPP Updates

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2012 LTPP Updates Generation & Transmission Planning Section Nat Skinner, Patrick Young California Public Utilities Commission 12/10/2012

  2. LTPP Overview • Biennial planning process • Determines rules and guidelines for utility procurement and cost recovery • Establish long-term local area and system needs to ensure grid reliability and authorize any needed procurement • Involves coordination between CEC/CAISO/CPUC • Detailed analysis with 10 year planning horizon to make procurement decisions • Broad analysis with 20 year planning horizon to inform policy discussions

  3. 2012 LTPP Components • Currently has three tracks • Track 1: Local Capacity needs for LA Basin & Big Creek / Ventura • Track 2: Planning assumptions, operating flexibility (i.e. renewable integration), system need • Track 3: Bundled IOU plans and procurement rules

  4. Track 1 - Local Areas • Considers authorizing new resources for local reliability purposes over a 10 year horizon • Driven by state’s policy on phasing out once-through-cooled (OTC) technology • Informed by CAISO reliability studies given expected OTC retirements in local transmission-constrained areas • Proposed Decision authorizing procurement, if any is needed, expected December2012

  5. Track 2 - System • Establishes assumptions for use in resource planning • Establishes scenarios to be modeled by CAISO to examine operating flexibility and system reliability needs • Proposed Decision establishing assumptions and scenarios was issued November 20, 2012 • Modeling results (expected spring 2013) will inform system need determination • Decision authorizing procurement, if any is needed, expected end of 2013

  6. Track 3 - Bundled • Assesses and adopts (typically with modifications) the IOUs’ bundled procurement plans pursuant to AB 57 • Looks at any new bundled procurement rules that may be needed • IOUs file Bundled Plans in March 2013 (tentative)

  7. Distributed Generation in LTPP Generation & Transmission Planning Section Nat Skinner, Patrick Young California Public Utilities Commission 12/10/2012

  8. 2012 LTPP Track 1 • CAISO power flow modeling in local areas • Uses 2009 California Energy Demand forecast (CED) • Only one of five modeling scenarios included any level of uncommitted DG projected by the CEC • Committed DG projections are embedded in the CED and include funded, established programs • Uncommitted DG projections are incremental to the CED and include unfunded or not yet established programs with a reasonable expectation of future implementation • Assumptions needed at the busbar level to sufficiently model grid within local areas

  9. 2012 LTPP Track 2 • Aggregates different combinations of demand and supply assumptions to create several scenarios • The scenarios serve as basic inputs to advanced modeling that will study system reliability and operating flexibility needs • In general, each demand and supply assumption has a low, mid, and high forecast value • Assumptions needed at the zonal level • The demand assumption starts with the 2011 California Energy Demand forecast (CED) • Committed DG (self-generation) is embedded in the CED

  10. Managed demand forecast • The LTPP analysis creates a “managed” forecast assumption by adjusting the CED by a projection of programs or expectations not accounted for in the CED • Example: The CED was released before a Commission decision this year that effectively raised the Net Energy Metering cap. The projected impact is further small PV growth beyond that embedded in the CED. • Managed forecast calculation: 53,674 CED – 4,506 incremental EE – 1,803 incremental small PV – 531 incremental demand side CHP = 46,833 MW

  11. Demand side DG assumptions • Incremental small PV • Based on an extrapolation of the effects of Net Energy Metering cap definition described by D.12-05-036 • Peak demand impact assumptions in 2020: • Low = 0 MW : assumes no effect from the NEM cap increase • Mid = 710 MW : assumes about 50% of the NEM cap increase is filled out by additional small PV installations • High = 1803 MW : assumes the NEM cap is reached

  12. Demand side DG assumptions • Incremental demand side CHP • Based on CEC sponsored consultant report on CHP potential • http://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-200-2012-002/CEC-200-2012-002-REV.pdf • Peak demand impact assumptions in 2020: • Low = 0 MW : assumes any new CHP replaces retiring CHP • Mid = 452 MW : reflects the “base” case of the report on CHP potential, which assumes SGIP expiration in 2016 • High = 531 MW : reflects the “mid” case of the report on CHP potential, which assumes SGIP extension beyond 2016

  13. Demand side resources comparison Tracking DG goals

  14. Demand side DG modeling • For advanced modeling, demand side DG will be modeled as supply resource to quantify its effects/benefits to grid reliability • Modeling types: • Production cost simulation, operational flexibility studies • System reliability, planning reserve margins • Powerflow modeling used in Transmission Planning Process (TPP), and stability and local reliability studies • Current self generation data is disaggregated by service area which is adequate for operational flexibility and system studies • Current LTPP modeling underway in January 2013 • TPP modeling expected to start mid 2013

  15. DG data requirements • Have limited data: • Installed capacity (aggregate MW) • Peak demand impact (aggregate MW) • Energy production (aggregate GWh) • Technology type (rooftop PV, CHP, others) • Need: • More granularity (disaggregation) of the current data, e.g. : • Locational (@ busbar) • Technology characteristics (includes smart inverter?)

  16. Questions • CEC and CAISO to specify exact data needs? • (Currently, they do a lot of the advanced modeling requiring granular data) • How do we forecast where DG will be sited? • Is sufficient technical data on DG installations being collected and by whom? • What data can CPUC’s Customer Generation group provide, now and in the future? • To what extent can DG data be included in the IEPR? • (IEPR may not need the granular data, but LTPP and TPP do)

  17. Thank you! For Additional Information: www.cpuc.ca.gov www.GoSolarCalifornia.ca.gov www.CalPhoneInfo.com

More Related