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Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * waelde

press ‘enter‘ when ready. Natural volatility in growing economies. ________________________________________________________________. aha?!?. okay!. okay!. 1. How it fits into the literature. okay!. growth and. Ready to start? Press ‘enter‘. growth theories. fluctuations. fluctuations.

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Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * waelde

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  1. press ‘enter‘ when ready Natural volatility in growing economies ________________________________________________________________ aha?!? okay! okay! 1. How it fits into the literature okay! growth and Ready to start? Press ‘enter‘ growththeories fluctuations fluctuations exogenous explanation Solow RBC, sunspots Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * www.waelde.com Bental and Peled Romer Lucas Aghion Howitt Grossman Helpman endogenousexplanation endogenousexplanation Matsuyama Wälde Francois and Lloyd-Ellis

  2. press ‘enter‘ when ready Natural volatility in growing economies ________________________________________________________________ 2. Why do growing economies fluctuate? (see e.g. Bental und Peled 1996, Matsuyama 1999, Wälde 1999, 2002, 2005 Francois and Lloyd-Ellis 2003) TFP grows in discrete steps rather than smoothly! Growth models with exogenous or endogenous growth: TFP growth is smooth Natural volatility: TFP growth turns out to follow a step function Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * www.waelde.com

  3. Natural volatility in growing economies ________________________________________________________________ 3. A Model (Posch and Wälde, 2005) press (last time) ‘enter‘ when ready press ‘enter‘ when ready press ‘enter‘ when ready press ‘enter‘ when ready Fig. 1a: Cyclical component Fig. 1b: Corresponding level of GDP Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * www.waelde.com u u

  4. Natural volatility in growing economies ________________________________________________________________ Want more details? Thank you for your attention! See the survey and more references in: http://www.wifak.uni-wuerzburg.de/vwl2/nv/NaturalVolatility.pdf Klaus Wälde * Department of Economics * University of Würzburg * www.waelde.com u u

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